One Country, Two Audiences: Television and the Internet in Russia

Report
ONE COUNTRY, TWO AUDIENCES:
TELEVISION AND THE INTERNET IN RUSSIA
Prof Sarah Oates
School of Social and Political Sciences
University of Glasgow (UK)
www.media-politics.com
ANALYZING THE INTERNET IN RUSSIA
• Center for New Media and Society at the New Economic School
(РЭШ)
http://www.newmediacenter.ru/
• Higher School of Economics, Moscow
• Higher School of Economics, St Petersburg
• Berkman Center for Internet and Society, Harvard University
• University of Glasgow (UK)
FIRST CHANNEL … GOING, GOING, GONE?
60
50
40
First Channel
Mail.ru
30
20
10
0
Ages 12-54
Ages 12-34
Ages 12-17
ONLINE AUDIENCE IN RUSSIA: DATA
• Detailed report on the Russian internet produced by the
Russian government
ИНТЕРНЕТ В РОССИИ: СОСТОЯНИЕ, ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И
ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ РАЗВИТИЯ, 2011
Федеральное агентство по печати и массовым
коммуникациям
http://www.fapmc.ru/magnoliaPublic/rospechat/activities/report
s/2011/item6.html
• 2010 survey of 2,017 Russian citizens
2010 SURVEY ON REGULAR MEDIA USE
Percent
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Percent
National TV
Local TV
National
Local
Newspapers Newspapers
Internet
MEDIA TRANSFORMATIONS IN RUSSIA
• Revolution or evolution?
• Role of catalyst
• How can we separate the different elements of the
media in order to focus on it – without losing sight of
the overall pattern?
• News production, content and audience
THE CHALLENGE OF STUDYING THE INTERNET
• Pace of change
• Relatively little empirical research
• Very little comparative research across country boundaries
• To what extent can the results of research grounded in a specific national
context be generalised?
• Internet – is it a cause or an effect? How do you formulate research
questions and hypotheses?
• Can you really separate the commercial from the political, and the
private/personal from the public in the online world?
TOP 10 MEDIA PREFERENCES FOR RUSSIANS AGED
12-54
Outlet
Type
Daily average
Weekly average
First Channel
State-run TV
40.5
72.3
Rossiya 1
State TV
35.3
68.5
NTV
Commercial TV
34.0
65.9
STS
Commercial TV
33.2
64.8
TNT
Commercial TV
29.9
59.4
Yandex
Search engine
29.3
47.7
Mail.Ru
Online mail portal
25.8
44.0
Ren
Commercial TV
25.8
56.3
Vkontake.ru
Social-networking site
24.0
35.7
Evropa Plus
Commercial radio
22.1
48.1
TOP 10 MEDIA PREFERENCES FOR RUSSIANS AGED
12-34
Outlet
Type
Daily average
Weekly average
Yandex
Search engine
35.4
56.5
Vkontake.ru
Social-networking site
34.2
49.0
First Channel
State-run TV
33.7
66.6
STS
Commercial TV
32.5
63.6
TNT
Commercial TV
31.2
60.1
Mail.Ru
Online mail portal
30.3
52.0
Evropa Plus
Commercial radio
28.3
56.9
Rossiya 1
State TV
27.4
61.5
NTV
Commercial TV
26.6
59.5
Russkoe Radio
State radio
23.2
50.2
TOP 10 MEDIA PREFERENCES FOR RUSSIANS AGED
12-17
Outlet
Type
Daily average
Weekly average
Vkontake.ru
Social-networking site
44.3
58.3
STS
Commercial TV
36.3
68.1
Yandex.ru
Search engine
35.1
55.4
TNT
Commercial TV
32.6
62.0
Evropa Plus
Commercial radio
32.5
59.0
Mail.Ru
Online mail portal
29.2
50.3
Russkoe Radio
State radio
26.0
47.8
First Channel
State-run TV
24.2
55.9
Love Radio
Commercial radio
21.4
41.2
Humor FM
Commercial radio
18.9
36.5
ONLINE AUDIENCE IN RUSSIA
• Is there evidence for a link between
heavy internet use and political
values?
• Is the internet audience changing
qualitatively as it increases
quantitatively?
FINDINGS
• Evidence that internet use is linked to more skepticism
and less support for the Russian regime.
• Emergence of an ‘internet generation’ in Russia: high
levels of internet penetration among Russian youth +
internet use is spreading fast and wide among Russians
under the age of 40.
• Attitudes appear to change with internet use – even when
other socio-economic variables are weighed in the
balance
QUESTIONS
• Can the rapid growth in internet signal a
significant challenge to the current Russian
regime?
• Are there particular features of an online
audience, including size, attitude, behavior, or
pace of growth, that could predict its contribution
to democratization?
• From 2000 to 2010, the number of
Russians on line grew by almost 2,000%,
reaching 59.7 million users or 43% of the
population by March 2011.
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats4.htm#europe
WHAT FUELS GROWTH IN ONLINE AUDIENCE?
• Rise in income for Russians in the past decade with falling cost of access
• Spread of internet usage from urban elites to a much wider base
• Government policy that has encouraged the use of ICTs
• Lack of repressive state controls on Russian internet
• Attractive range of Russian internet platforms and websites for users that
play to a strong cultural interest in reflective discussion
• Development of mobile internet augmented by the extremely widespread use
of mobile telephones in Russia
•
Well-educated and attentive media audience.
RECENT GROWTH IN ONLINE AUDIENCE
• From winter 2009-10 to winter of 2010-11,
growth in internet penetration in Russian villages
(syela) exploded, increasing from 19% to 28%
for a 48% growth rate over a single year. There
was in growth in Russian internet use
everywhere – from 22% in towns from 100,000
to 500,000 residents to more modest 4% in the
relatively saturated Moscow internet market.
ONLINE GENERATION GAP
• While 84% of those aged 12-17 use the internet, only 8% of
those over the age of 55 are on line.
• Following current trends, the communications agency report
predicts that virtually all Russians from the age of 12 to 45 will
be on line by the autumn of 2014. The report
• The report predicts internet usage saturation rates of 99% for 12
to 17-year-olds and 97% for those between 18 and 45.
Meanwhile, while usage will reach 76% for those between age
45 and 54, the report predicts that the oldest segment of society
will only reach 24% internet saturation by late 2014.
THE RULE OF TV -- 2004
• 62% said they received news about politics every day
from television (28% from radio and just 14% from
newspapers)
• 75% watched Channel 1’s Vremya nightly news
regularly, 62% watched Vesti regularly, and 38%
watched Sevodnya regularly.
• The evidence would suggest that the media,
particularly state television, have quite a strong
influence: 40% of the respondents in the 2004
survey claimed that national state television was
the most important source of information for their
vote choice in the Duma elections.
• Also, Russians often report they make their mind
up during campaigns
HOW DO RUSSIANS FIND NEWS ONLINE
(RUSSIAN AGENCY REPORT)
• 38% of traffic to online media sites comes as a user
goes directly to a particular URL
• Another 17.5% comes from search. Thus, while search
is the most popular activity on the Russian internet, it is
clear that people are only searching for news a fraction
of the time.
• Other traffic to online media sites comes through news
aggregators (9%), other media websites (9%), web
portals such as Mail.Ru (8%), traffic aggregation sites
(6.5%); and banner ads (5%)
Russian agency report
THE INTERNET, NEWS AND THE RUSSIAN
AUDIENCE
• Major news websites serve more as tunnels into narrow
selections of news from single producers rather than
opportunities to garner more news from a range of
sources.
• If it appears that Russians are fairly narrow in their
consumption of news, it can be argued that they are
relatively broad in their discussion of the news in the
online sphere.
REGULAR INTERNET USERS IN RUSSIA
• Think it’s easier to join organizations
• Freedom of speech easier
• Easier to participate in public life
• Have greater respect for human rights
• Trust commercial enterprises MORE, the government,
parliament and state TV LESS
• No effect on trust in commercial TV
Source: 2010 survey (bivariate correlations)
WHO SUPPORTS MEDVEDEV?
• Those who watch Vremya
• Women
• NOT those who are online
•
Source: 2010 survey, regression analysis
Russian television does not have a parallel
dominance in the online sphere and the younger
audience shows more interest in online rather than
traditional media could signal a fundamental shift
in the loyalty and attention of key segments of the
Russian news audience.
FIRST CHANNEL … GOING, GOING, GONE?
60
50
40
First Channel
Mail.ru
30
20
10
0
Ages 12-54
Ages 12-34
Ages 12-17
FUNDING
•
The Internet and Everyday Rights in Russia, Economic and Social Research Council
(UK), Grant RES000224159
•
International Potential, National Limits: Investigating the Role of the Russian Internet in
Constraining the Social Agenda, British Academy Research Grant
•
2010 survey data from: Economic and Social Research Council Grant R000223133
Building a New Democracy?: Television, Citizens and Voting in Russia

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