The Ultra High Speed Internet – David Kitzinger Presentation

Report
THE ULTRA HIGH SPEED
INTERNET
Applications, effects, and architectures
David Kitzinger – Principal Advisory Services, LLC
Allied Telesis - Technology & Consulting Director
Agenda:
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What is Ultra High Speed Interent (UHSI)?
Potential Applications over UHSI
Can you monetize the applications?
How does UHSI affect today’s Service Providers?
What architecture do you need to support UHSI?
Summary?
What is Ultra High Speed Internet (UHSI)?
» A SERVICE that requires a “Direct” fiber connection
– Copper, WiMAX and 4G LTE can’t support this
» A PLATFORM for new residential and business apps
– Running on the same network
– Requiring QoS capability and SLA
» A VERSION of the Internet measured in Gb/s
– Dependent more on speed than bandwidth
– More than100 times faster than today’s average speeds
How does speed affect our lives?
» When the Internet was 56 Kb/s, these applications did not exist:
– IPTV
– VoIP
– Movie downloads
– E-commerce
– Social Networking
– Cloud Computing
» If 56 Kb/s was still the best Internet speed today, these
companies would not exist as you know them:
» DSL and Cable changed all of that — because of SPEED.
The big picture?
New USA Technologies will likely be an “Enabler” to UHSI
» Enable lower cost manufacturing
– 3D Printers
– 3D Scanners
– The promise of putting USA manufacturing on par with China’s costs
– Bandwidth and optical transport should become more cost efficient
» Graphene
– Strongest building material known to man
– Has the potential to be the next generation of video screens and next
generation of HDTVs
– -Solar Panels
What new applications will run on the UHSI?
» True IPTV
• Today’s telcos are really running a broadcast, cable TV business
• Tomorrow’s telcos will be running True IPTV
» HDTV, 4K, 8K Ultra HDTV, 3D, and other high-bandwidth formats
become the norm (OTT) Video
• No such thing as a “static” channel line-up
• Channel selections made by Personal Intelligent Channel Search
Engine or “PICSE”
• Next applications… gaming, home business/office, education, etc.
» Most content will come from servers
• Reduced dependence on Satellite-based systems and encoders will no
longer be necessary
• Advertising shifts from broadcast TV model to Internet Search model
More applications …
» True Home Office
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–
–
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Video conference calls using V2oIP
Instant uploads and downloads of data
Data servers can be located at residences
“Managed Home” network services is born
» Universal Data Cloud-Based Services
– Individuals storing software, music/video content, etc.
– Small businesses storing software and sensitive
retail data, etc.
– Large businesses can enjoy multiple Gb/s
speeds to move data off premise
– Cost effective for Business –
reduced software fees and hardware expenses
More applications …
» Software Defined Networks (SDN)
» The farm industry is moving toward “Precision Agriculture: farming
based on (2) acre grids with data bases of soil type/moisture/humous controlling on-the-go seed variety, fertilizer applications, and
pesticide/rootworm concentrations
» Baby diaper monitoring sensor:
»
Tweets parent when diaper is wet
»
Detection of Urine factors/acidity level – tweet parents
baby may be coming down with a virus or illness
» Wearable Personal Medical Monitoring Systems
»
Automatically sends data to Cloud for medical records
that the
How does the UHSI affect today’s Servioce Providers?
Cable
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VERY NEGATIVE
Unlikely to abandon
Hybrid Fiber Coax
(HFC) architecture
Xfinity and other
Internet offerings will
be no match for UHSI
Video on Demand
(VoD) business is gone
VoIP will be replaced
with V2oIP
UHSI-based IPTV
application will slowly
displace standard
broadcast TV
Satellite
NEGATIVE to NEUTRAL
» UHSI will negate impact
of their new Mb/s
Internet offering
» Continue to be strong
for broadcast content
(ex. Sports)
Telecom
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VERY POSITIVE
Likely to expand fiber
architectures
UHSI will dominate
Internet, Gaming, TV
and Movies
Complexity of home
network will give rise
to “Managed Home”
service
Affect on market share over the next 25 years
Services:
Cable
Satellite
Telecom
Internet
Phone
Broadcast TV
Unicast TV
VoD
Managed Home
Significant Decrease
No Significant Change
Significant Increase
What architecture do you need to support UHSI? Continued
• Most new Fiber Plant designs are based on all Home-Run-Fibers
• Typically, on a new FTTH deployment the Fiber Installation cost is the majority
of the money. The FTTH equipment is typically amounts to 5% to 8% of the
cost.
• Today’s Actvie Architecture offers on average 18 times more bandwidth than
GPON Passive:
• Do the math GPON offers 76 Mbps downstream & 38 Mbps upsgtream;
averaging 57 Mbps. 1 Gb divided by 56 Mbps = 18 times
• 10 Gb GPON compared to 1 Gb Ethernet Active is not a like comparison:
• 10 Gb GPON should be compared to 10 Gb Active which still offers
more bandwidth
• A good cost evaluation may be best based upon cost per Mb
Multi-Dwelling
What architecture do you need to support UHSI?
» The Smart Connected Home
– Layer 3+ indoor wireless ONT with indoor wireless hubs
• Layer 3+ ONT the network “router” for the home; connections for Video &
Internet MAC’s become automatic and do not require separate VLANs for Video
and Internet; thus, saving operational expense and simplifies the Connected
Home
– 1 MAC/IP supporting a growing number of wireless devices (iPhone, iPad,
laptop, etc.)
• Trend is toward the Indoor wireless ONT to avoid wiring issues
• Wireless hubs for ubiquitous coverage throughout the home
Hub
Hub
O
N
T
O N T
Video POTS
OLD
Broadband
WAY
NEW
WAY
One
Network
What architecture do you need to support UHSI?
Central Office
» The Office and Feeder…
– WDM-based
• Minimize fibers and impact of fiber cuts and repairs in
the feeder
• Maximize bandwidth to each RT
– 100G capable to average RT
• Plan for NO concentration for a Gigabit per premise
– Needs to be symmetrical all the way to the premise
• UHSI will require large “upstream” capability to
support new applications
Apartment
fiber
House
fiber
Cell Site
fiber
Business
– Needs to support both residential and business traffic
• DON’T build two networks
fiber
Multi-Dwelling
Summary:
The Tier 3 Telcos attitudes and offerings were likely influenced by the FCC USF tax which
has provided NECA subsidies to your company over many years.
However, the USF NECA subsidies as we know them will finish in 2018.
FCC has released statements and intentions of Connect America Funds:
CAF (1) was based on USF taxes still collected on Wireline and wireless voice circuits;
contained limits on Administration/Overhead and maxed out at $775.00 per access line.
CAF (2) was announced and FCC stated their biggest concern was over the Tier 1 &
Tier 2 rural exchanges that had no internet offering or could not meet the 4x1 guidelines.
FCC stated that their rural exchanges should be treated as greenfield with plans to convert
them to FTTH. CAF (2) was to be based on Broadband taxes.
Due to Telco Associations filing concerns with FCC as to their breach of (7) year funding
and future funding promises for which Telcos based their loans for FTTH;
FCC agreed to keep funding for (5) years at the level the telco received in 2011.
Note: It was agreed upon years ago not to tax the internet. Many States have asked the
internet to provide the Sales Tax due to each state but have failed. Congress does not
seem to have the fortitude to tax the internet. Thus, does FCC really have a plan?
Multi-Dwelling
Summary:
FCC suggested Gb Communities for each State in 2013
Today 80% + of the internet traffic is Video:
Streaming OTT Video /HDTV will migrate to higher bandwidth, the baby boomers may keep CATV
alive but as their generation declines – Streaming Video is in. Internet ready TVs with PISCE may bring
the baby boomers into the modern times.
Data Bandwidth will grow as Business & Residential consumers migrate to Cloud computing. Does
your company have a Cloud Computing Partner to recommend to your Access customers and can
you monetize the application?
Considering Precision Farming, does your company view farmers as business accounts and will you
offer brackets of service levels or charge by Gb of usage?
Do you offer a Home Security System directly or through a partner?
Many new UHSI Applications will be created once the bandwidth is available!
In light of todays economy and FCC policies; has your Telephone Company really
considered the value of the services they offer?
It is time for the Communication Industry to Retool with FTTH?
Multi-Dwelling
Any Questions
Thank You
David Kitzinger
Technology & Consulting Director
712-541-8341 Cell
[email protected]
[email protected]
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