A9 FCA 6 Results Summary

Report
MAY 15, 2012 | WESTBOROUGH, MA
Forward Capacity Auction #6
(FCA #6) Results Summary
Reliability Committee Meeting
Stephen J. Rourke
VICE PRESIDENT, SYSTEM PLANNING
Carissa P. Sedlacek
MANAGER, RESOURCE INTEGRATION AND ANALYSIS
Highlights
• The sixth Forward Capacity Auction (FCA #6) was held April 2-3 and
successfully procured resources to satisfy the region’s Installed Capacity
Requirement (ICR) for the 2015/2016 Capacity Commitment Period (CCP)
• Approximately 38,601 MW of qualified resources competed to provide the
needed 33,456 MW of capacity (Net ICR)
• Of the qualified new resources, about 84% (or 2,041 MW) of new
resources (generation, imports, demand resources) cleared the auction
and have a Capacity Supply Obligation (CSO)
• Approximately 1,889 MW of de-list bids submitted were approved. Those
not approved and retained for reliability were in the NEMA/Boston load
zone
• A dynamic de-list bid for Vermont Yankee (604 MW) was accepted
• The ISO filed results of FCA #6 with FERC on April 30
2
FCA #6 Overview
• There were seven rounds in which Participants could submit bids and
offers
• Starting price was $11.446/kW-mo
• Ending price was $3.434/kW-mo
• Cleared MW will receive a prorated payment of $3.129/kW-mo unless
they elect to prorate their MW obligation
• FCA #6 results FERC Filing made on April 30 is available at:
– http://www.iso-ne.com/regulatory/ferc/filings/2012/apr/er12-___-000_04-3012_6th_fca_results_filing.pdf
• The resource proration election window was April 9-11 and results were
provided to Participants (via MIS report) in early May
– No resources in the NEMA/Boston load zone were allowed to prorate due to
the fact some resources were retained for reliability
3
FCA #6 Auction Details
• ICR for June 1, 2015 through May 31, 2016 is 34,498 MW
– After accounting for 1,042 MW of Hydro-Québec Installed Capacity
Credits, 33,456 MW remained to be procured (Net ICR)
• Approximately 38,731 MW of resources qualified to participate in
FCA #6 at the time of the Informational Filing
– However, due to new resource termination and/or withdrawal from
Critical Path Schedule monitoring, only 38,601 MW of qualified resources
actually did participate
– Qualified Existing Resources (36,174 MW)
• 32,076 MW of Generating Capacity, including Intermittent*
• 315 MW of Import Capacity
• 3,783 MW of Demand Resources
– Qualified New Resources (2,427 MW)
• New Supply Resources (1,953 MW)
– 133 MW Generating Capacity
– 1,820 MW Import Capacity
• New Demand Resources (474 MW)
* Includes new RTEG which receives existing treatment in the auction
4
FCA #6 Auction Details, cont.
• Approximately 617 MW (uncapped by Maximum Capacity
Limit (MCL) and Real-Time Emergency Generation (RTEG))
remained at the floor price
– Existing Resources (34,285 MW)*
• 30,954 MW of Existing Supply Resources
– 30,678 MW of Generation Capacity
– 276 MW of Import Capacity
• 3,331 MW of Existing Demand Resources
– New Resources (2,041 MW)
• New Supply Resources (1,727 MW)
– 79 MW of Generation Capacity
– 1,648 MW of Import Capacity**
• New Demand Resources (314 MW)
• Approximately 36,309 MW (capped by RTEG) total capacity
was used to calculate the effective payment rate
* Accounts for Non-Price Retirements and includes new RTEG
** Capped by Interface Limits
5
New Capacity Resources by State
Demand Resources*
314 MW
VT
9%
Generation
79 MW
NH
12%
CT
16%
RI
17%
MA
28%
NH
5%
ME
7%
MA
46%
ME
60%
* Includes 8% T&D Gross-up and new RTEG
6
New Demand Resources by Type
314 MW Total
Seasonal
Peak
13%
Real Time EG
1%
Real Time
21%
On Peak
65%
Includes approximately 247 MW of New Energy Efficiency Projects
7
New Generation by Type
79 MW Total
Combined
Cycle
13%
Hydraulic
Turbine
14%
Photovoltaic
1%
Wind Turbine
72%
8
Trends in New Capacity Resources
3500
3000
MW
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
FCA #1
FCA #2
FCA #3
FCA #4
FCA #5
FCA #6
FCA New Cleared Capacity
Generation
Imports
Demand Response
9
FCA #6 De-list Details
• A total of 191 de-list bids (approximately 1,968 MW) were received from
resources in all six New England states. Approximately 96% were accepted
– Permanent, static, exports and administrative export bids were submitted
prior to the auction at prices greater than 0.8 X Cost of New Entry (CONE)
• 10 resources submitted (approximately 351 MW)
– All 351 MW were accepted
– Additional static de-list bids were submitted by the ISO on behalf of the
Participant due to the inability to qualify winter MW (“low winter flag”)
• Submitted for 31 resources representing 122 MW (22 MW in NEMA)
– All 122 MW were accepted
– Dynamic de-list bids are submitted during the auction at prices less than 0.8 X
CONE (or below $4.758/kW-mo)
• 150 dynamic de-list bids (approximately 1,495 MW)
– 1,416 MW accepted
– 79 MW denied (6 dynamic de-list bids in the NEMA/Boston load zone)
10
Approved Submitted De-list Bids by State
1,889 MW Total
CT
29%
VT
34%
Imports
2%
RI
3%
NH
2%
ME
6%
MA
24%
11
FCA #6 De-list Details, cont.
•
A dynamic de-list bid for Vermont Yankee (604 MW) was accepted for FCA #6
based on completion of various system upgrades in MA and VT that resolve
identified reliability concerns
–
•
De-list bid submittal trends are starting to emerge
–
–
–
–
–
•
A dynamic de-list bid was also submitted in FCA #4 & 5 but the resource was retained for reliability in
those auctions
AES Thames
• Cleared a Dynamic De-list bid for the unit in FCA #5 & 6
West Springfield 3
• Cleared a Dynamic De-list bid for the unit FCA #5
• Cleared a Static De-list bid for the unit FCA #6
Bridgeport Harbor 2
• Cleared a Dynamic De-list bid for the unit in FCA #4, 5, & 6
Somerset Jet 2
• Cleared a Static De-list bid for the unit in FCA #3, 4, & 5
• Cleared a Permanent De-list bid for the unit in FCA #6
• Retired effective 4/20/2012
Somerset 6
• Cleared a Static De-list bid for the unit in FCA #1, 2, 3, 4, & 5
• Cleared a Permanent De-list bid for the unit in FCA #6
• Retired effective 4/18/2012
Resources are also exiting the market via Annual Reconfiguration Auctions and
Bilaterals
12
Example – Real Time Emergency Generation
Change in Capacity Supply Obligations (CSOs)
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
FCA 1
FCA 2
FCA 3
FCA Cleared CSO
FCA 4
FCA 5
FCA 6
Latest CSO
13
Resources Retained for Reliability
• Few resources retained for reliability previous auctions
– Norwalk Harbor Unit 1 in FCA #1
• Unit #2 was later allowed to de-list
– Salem Harbor Units 3 & 4 for FCA #3, 4 and 5
• Area transmission upgrades ongoing
• Restudy results for the fourth Capacity Commitment Period being
discussed later today
– Vermont Yankee for FCA # 4 and 5
• Area transmission upgrades ongoing
• Restudy results for the fourth Capacity Commitment Period being
discussed later today
• These resources were retained for local reliability reasons
14
Trends in De-list Bids Submitted
3,000
581 MW
Rejected
Megawatts
2,500
1,191 MW
Rejected
604 MW
Rejected
2,000
1,500
79 MW
Rejected
330 MW
Rejected
0 MW
Rejected
1,000
500
0
FCA #1
FCA #2
DR
FCA #3
Generator
FCA #4
FCA #5
FCA #6
Import
15
Resources Retained for Reliability in FCA #6
• There were six dynamic de-list bids (79 MW) rejected
– All in the NEMA/Boston load zone
– Five demand resources
– One partial de-list from the Kendall Steam generating facility
Price
ID
Resource Name
De-list Bid
Amount (MW)
Round
Resource
Type
$4.577
$4.577
$4.292
$4.291
$4.291
$3.863
37871
37040
37997
37986
17301
37991
RTDR_50017_Boston (7507)
KENDALL STEAM
RTEG_50017_North Shore (7508)
RTDR_RTEG_50689_North Shore (7508) - Grp A
RTEG_50689_North Shore (7508)
RTEG_50017_Boston (7507)
-38.866
-27.379
-4.830
-2.526
-3.500
-1.512
5
5
5
6
6
6
DR
GEN
DR
DR
DR
DR
• Restudy of these rejected de-list bids will begin this summer with
the hope of allowing these resources to de-list based on changes in
load forecast and other assumptions
16
Next Steps for the Rejected De-list Bid
• A presentation to the RC is expected to be made in June to
discuss in detail the resources that were retained for reliability
(de-list bid rejection)
• In accordance with Planning Procedure No. 10, Section 7.5.1.,
an advisory RC vote regarding concurrence with how the
analyses for the rejected De-list Bids was conducted is
required and expected in June
– “…The Reliability Committee shall provide formal input and advice to
the ISO with regard to rejected de-list bids after the relevant FCA
through an advisory vote….”
• Pursuant to Market Rule 1, Section III.13.2.5.2.5.1(a)(ii), these
resources will continue to be re-evaluated prior to June 1,
2014 to determine if it may be allowed to de-list
17
MAY 15, 2012 | WESTBOROUGH, MA
Forward Capacity Auction #6 (FCA #6)
Results Summary – Appendix
Reliability Committee Meeting
Summary of Auction Rounds with
Excess Supply and Price Changes
Round
Start Price
End Price
Delta $
Excess Start1
Excess End1
Delta MW
1
11.446
6.868
4.578
4656.835
4372.869
283.966
2
6.868
5.723
1.145
4372.869
4280.766
92.103
3
5.723
5.151
0.572
4280.766
4197.273
83.493
4
5.151
4.578
0.573
4197.273
4151.505
45.768
5
4.578
4.292
0.286
4151.505
2956.207
1195.298
6
4.292
3.863
0.429
2956.207
2840.203
116.004
7
3.863
3.434
0.429
2840.203
2821.658
18.545
1
capped by Import Interface Limits and MCL
19
Results of New England’s FCA #6
Price at beginning of
auction:
$11.446/kW-Mo
(2 X CONE)
Qualified Resources
Entering the Auction:
38,601 MW
Existing
Resources:
36,174 MW
Demand:
3,783 MW
New Resources:
2,427 MW
Demand:
474 MW
Price at end of auction:
$3.434/kW-Mo
(Floor price: 0.6 X CONE)
Need in 2015
(NICR):
33,456 MW
Existing:
30,678 MW
Excess Capacity:
2,853 MW
(Total cleared minus
net ICR capped by
RTEG)
Resources cleared
(uncapped) in the
auction at the floor
price:
36,326 MW
Generating
Resources:
30,757 MW
Imports:
315 MW
Generating:
133 MW
Imports:
1,820 MW
Rejected:
79 MW
Generating:
1,398 MW
Approved:
1,889 MW
Import:
39 MW
Cleared Imports:
1,924 MW
Existing:
276 MW
Existing:
3,331 MW
On Peak
Seasonal Peak
Generating:
32,076 MW
RTEG:
$3.044
Demand
Resources:
3,645 MW
New:
79 MW
MW from existing
resources requesting
to de-list
1,968 MW
Effective Payment Rate
($/kW-Mo):
$3.129
Resources Capped by RTEG
36,309 MW
Real Time
Real Time EG
New:
1,648 MW
New:
314 MW
1,288 MW
355 MW
1,385 MW
Capacity
Zones: One
No Price
Separation
617 MW
Demand:
452 MW
20

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