Global Value Chains and the Rise of Income Inequality Marcel Timmer Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen Presentation at e-Frame final conference “GDP and Beyond”, 11 February 2014 The World input-output database (WIOD) project was funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities. Grant Agreement no: 225 281 Introduction Increasing income inequality in many countries around the world in recent times. Mainly between Capital owners and Highly-educated workers Less-educated workers Two competing hypotheses: International integration (trade and investment): specialisation according to comparative advantage? Technological change: skill- and capital-bias? Aim of this presentation Introduce the concept of Global Value Chains (GVCs) Provide trends in the changes in incomes for capital and workers in Global Value Chains. Argue that technological change might be an important driver of increasing inequality, alongside trade. Background Based on recent study: Timmer, M.P., A.A. Erumban, B. Los, R. Stehrer and G.J. de Vries (2014),"Slicing Up Global Value Chains", forthcoming Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2014. One of results of FP7 funded project (2009-2012): World Input-Output Database project (WIOD) (www.wiod.org) Stylized Global Value Chain (GVC) of a car Metal Plastic Car body Business services CAR Engine Value added distribution in GVC Country 1 Capital and labour Intermediate goods Domestic intermediate goods Country 2 VA by L2 Capital and labour Intermediate goods VA by K2 VA by L3 Domestic intermediate goods Country 3 VA by L1 VA by K1 Capital and labour Final goods for domestic and foreign demand VA by K3 Value added contributions to a “car” from German industry 100% 90% 80% 70% 8% 16% 13% 19% 21% 60% 23% 50% 58% 42% 20% Labour elsewhere Capital in Germany 40% 30% Capital elsewehere 10% Value added distribution of final output from German transport equipment manufacturing GVC (in millions) Labour in Germany Source: Figure 1 0% 1995 2011 Method and Data Method : Input-output analysis (Miller and Blair, 2009) Data: World Input-Output Tables representing flows of goods and services across industries and countries, for 1995-2011 (www.wiod.org), based on: Times-series of input-output tables benchmarked to national accounts Bilateral trade classified by end-use Capital and workers by three types of educational attainment levels Global value chain analysis done for 560 manufacturing products (14 product groups times 40 countries-ofcompletion) 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Share of value added by high-educated workers in 560 global value chains 0 .1 .2 .3 High-skilled labor share in GVC (1995) .4 1 .4 Factor shares in value added of 560 global value chains of manufactures High edu 0 0 .1 .2 .3 High-skilled labor share in GVC (2008) .2 .4 .6 .8 Capital .2 .4 .6 Capital share in GVC (1995) .8 0 1 .1 .2 .3 High-skilled labor share in GVC (1995) .4 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 Low edu .1 0 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 Med edu Low-skilled labor share in GVC (2008) .7 .7 0 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Medium-skilled labor share in GVC (1995) .6 .7 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Low-skilled labor share in GVC (1995) .6 .7 Increasing income share (%) for capital and high-edu workers: at global level (all 560 GVCs) 8 6 4 Capital 2 High-educ 0 Med-educ -2 Low-educ -4 -6 All countries Note: Percentage change in factor income shares in 560 global value chains of manufactures, by region. Source: Timmer et al. (2014, Table 3) both in rich and poor countries ! 6.0 4.0 2.0 Capital 0.0 High-educ -2.0 Med-educ -4.0 Low-educ -6.0 -8.0 Rich countries Poor countries Note: Percentage change in factor income shares in 560 global value chains of manufactures, by region. Source: Timmer et al. (2014, Table 3) Specialisation in the EU towards value added by high-skilled workers and capital (all manufactures GVCs) 40% MS 35% 30% CAP 25% HS 20% LS 15% 10% Note: The graph shows value added by factors in EU 27 in global final manufactures output (% of total EU value added) Possible determinants of factor income shares From production theory: change in cost shares can be explained by: changes in factor prices, substitution elasticities across all factors in all countries and factor-biased technical change (in the vertical chain) Some potential explanations: Increased possibilities for offshoring (“global surplus labour”) might erode bargaining position of less educated workers Prices of natural resources increased + limited substitution possibilities Declining ICT prices + complementarity of ICT and high skills Increased profit opportunities for capital due to bigger markets (e.g. brand names or software systems) Concluding remarks Main finding: increasing income for capital and higheducated workers in many global value chains, both in poor and rich countries. This fits the notion of skill-biased technological change in conjunction with international trade and fragmentation of production. Implications for international statistical systems World input-output tables are useful devices, also for Analyses of competitiveness and integration, “(Ecological) Footprinting”) Continued need for “physical” trade measures Many statistical challenges remain (e.g. trade in services and intangibles, capital ownership, ….) Background studies Timmer, Marcel P., Bart Los, Robert Stehrer and Gaaitzen J. de Vries (2013). “Fragmentation, Incomes and Jobs. An Analysis of European Competitiveness.” Economic Policy 28(76):613–661. Los, B., M.P. Timmer and G.J. de Vries (2014), “How global are Global Value Chains? A New Approach to Measure International Fragmentation”, forthcoming Journal of Regional Science, Timmer, M.P., A.A. Erumban, B. Los, R. Stehrer and G.J. de Vries (2014),"Slicing Up Global Value Chains", forthcoming Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2014. Timmer (ed, 2012), “WIOD: concepts, construction and applications”, WIOD working paper Some characteristics of GVC accounting GVCs can only be analysed by choosing a particular final product (group) as unit of analysis, not an industry or country. (e.g. industry 1 in country A delivers value added to production of final good X from country B) In work so far we focus on final manufacturing goods as they are most fragmented. Note that no distinction is made between products exported or used domestically Focus on value added rather than gross output or gross export. DATA: World Input-Output Tables (www.wiod.org) World Input-Output Table (WIOT) represents flows of goods and services across industries and countries (40 countries and rest-of-the world region), 1995-2011. Two data challenges in construction: 1. Times-series of input-output tables. Based on harmonised official benchmark national supply and use tables (34 industries and 59 product groups) Adjusted to, and interpolated with, industry output and main final demand time series from the National Accounts (RAS-like method) 2. Allocation of imports to three use categories using improved BEC-classification (based on COMTRADE HS 6digit level) rather than standard proportionality assumption (Feenstra and Jensen, 2012) Breakdown of imports by country of origin, using bilateral trade statistics on goods and services (export shares by mirroring imports) DATA: factor incomes by industry-country Wages and quantities of labour by skill type Number of workers (incl. self-employed) by three skill types based on levels of educational attainment (ISCED classification) Wages reflect total costs for employer, including imputed wage for self-employed workers (Gollin, JPE, 2002) For advanced countries data taken from EU KLEMS database (see O’Mahony and Timmer, 2009) Other countries: similar methodology based on country-specific labour force surveys and additional materials (Erumban et al., 2011) Capital income is defined as residual such that the accounting identity will hold: capital income = value added minus labour compensation. It reflects income to all capital assets, including intangibles Worldwide (all 560 GVCs): Increasing income for capital and high-edu labour Note: Percentage change in factor income shares in 560 global value chains of manufactures, worldwide. Source: Timmer et al. (2014, Table 2) Value added to global output of final manufactures, 1995 and 2008 1995 Total value added (billion US$), by capital (%) high-skilled labor (%) medium-skilled labor (%) low-skilled labor (%) 2008 Change 6,586 8,684 2,098 40.9 13.8 28.7 16.6 47.4 15.4 24.4 12.8 6.5 1.5 -4.2 -3.8 Note: Breakdown of value added to global output of all final manufactures by factor of production. Value added is at basic prices (hence excluding net taxes, trade and transport margins on output). It is converted to US$ with official exchange rates and deflated to 1995 prices with the US CPI. Figures may not add due to rounding. Source: Author’s calculations based on World Input-Output Database, April 2013.