Key Messages from WGII AR5 Impacts, adaptation and

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Key Messages from WGII AR5
Impacts, adaptation and
vulnerabilities
Lennart Olsson
CLA, Ch 13 on Livelihoods and Poverty; CCB-HS
LUCSUS – Centre for Sustainability Studies,
Lund University, Sweden
www.lucsus.lu.se
1.Key features of AR5 WG II
2.What CC impacts can we see so far
3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe
4.What can adaption do for us?
AR4
7. Industry, Settlement and Society
8. Human Health
AR5
AR4
AR5
8. Urban Areas
9. Rural Areas
10. Key Economic Sectors
11. Human Heath
12. Human Security
13. Livelihoods and Poverty
17. Assessment of Adaptation Practices, Options, Constraints and Capacity
18. Inter-relationships Between Adaptation and Mitigation
14. Adaptation Needs and Options
15. Adaptation Planning and Implementation
16. Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
17. Economics of Adaptation
1.Key features of AR5 WG II
2.What CC impacts can we see so far
3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe
4.What can adaption do for us?
Calibrated uncertainty language
M
H
VH
L
M
H
VL
L
M
Mastrandrea M., et al 2010: Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties
According to the WGI, it is very likely that the
number and intensity of hot days have
increased markedly in the last three decades
and virtually certain that this increase will
continue into the late 21st century. In addition,
it is likely that the occurrence of heat waves
(multiple days of hot weather in a row) has
more than doubled in some locations, but very
likely that there will be more frequent heat
waves over most land areas after mid-century.
The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe. Barriopedro 2011 (Science 8 Apirl 2011)
France 2003 (15 000)
Europe 2003 (35 000 70 000)
Russia 2010 (55 000)
Summary of estimated impacts of observed climate changes on yields over
1960-2013 for four major crops in temperate and tropical regions, with the
number of data points analyzed given for each category
Brisson, N., 2010: Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for
France. Field Crops Research 119 201-212
Heat effect
Rainfall effect
The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States
David B. Lobell, Graeme L. Hammer, Greg McLean, Carlos Messina, Michael J. Roberts andWolfram Schlenker
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, VOL 3, MAY 2013, p 497-501
1.Key features of AR5 WG II
2.What CC impacts can we see so far
3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe
4.What can adaption do for us?
i) Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small
island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea
level rise.37 [RFC 1-5]
ii) Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland
flooding in some regions.38 [RFC 2 and 3]
iii) Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure
networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency
services.39 [RFC 2-4]
iv) Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable
urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.40 [RFC 2 and 3]
v) Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought,
flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban
and rural settings.41 [RFC 2-4]
vi) Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation
water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with
minimal capital in semi-arid regions.42 [RFC 2 and 3]
vii) Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods,
functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in
the tropics and the Arctic.43 [RFC 1, 2, and 4]
viii) Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem
goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.44 [RFC 1, 3, and 4]
Risk-Level
EUROPE
Very
Low
Increased Flood
Losses and Impacts
Present
Very
High
Potential for
Risk Level with
Additional
Current Adaptation
Adaptation to
Reduce Risk
Increased Losses and
Impacts from Extreme
Heat Events
2030-40
2080-2100; 2°C
2080-2100; 4°C
Increased Water
Restrictions
very low
Risk Level with
High Adaptation
Med
very high
‘… the frequency of dangerous heat conditions also
increases significantly faster and more strongly’
2021-2050
2071-2100
SRES A1B ca RCP6.0
E. M. Fischer and C. Schär: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. NATURE GEOSCIENCE JUNE 2010, 398-403
SRES A2, Similar to RCP8.5
SREX [3.5.1, Figure 3-9]
Figure TS.6 | (A) Percentage change of mean annual streamflow for a global mean temperature rise of 2°C
above 1980–2010. Color hues show the multi-model mean change across 5 General Circulation Models
(GCMs) and 11 Global Hydrological Models (GHMs), and saturation shows the agreement on the sign of
change across all 55 GHM–GCM combinations (percentage of model runs agreeing on the sign of change).
• mid Pliocene (3.3 – 3.0 ma), 1.9 – 3.3 °C , 350-45
ppm CO2: up to +20 m GSL
• Last interglacial (129 – 116 ka), about +2 °C:
°C
+5-10 m GSL
• 1901 – 2010: 1.7 mm/year; 1993 – 2010: 3.2
mm/year
TFE.2, Figure 2 | Compilation of paleo sealevel data (purple), tide gauge data (blue, red and green), altimeter data (light blue) and central
estimates and likely ranges for projections of global mean sea level rise from the combination of CMIP5 and process-based models for RCP2.6
(blue) and RCP8.5 (red) scenarios, all relative to pre-industrial values. {Figures 13.3, 13.11, 13.27}
1.Key features of AR5 WG II
2.What CC impacts can we see so far
3.What are the risks of future CC – focus SE Europe
4.What can adaption do for us?
Adaptation is place- and context-specific, with no
single approach for reducing risks appropriate
across all settings!
Key Messages from WGII AR5
Impacts, adaptation and
vulnerabilities
Lennart Olsson
CLA, Ch 13 on Livelihoods and Poverty; CCB-HS
LUCSUS – Centre for Sustainability Studies,
Lund University, Sweden
www.lucsus.lu.se
Peters, Marland etal 2011
IPCC AR5 WGIII, SPM

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