PPT slides from Luksha`s talk

Report
Global Education
Futures Agenda
Russian Education
Foresight Initiative
Pavel Luksha
Reengineering Futures Group /
SKOLKOVO School of Management /
Agency for Strategic Initiatives
2010-2014
Elephant driver license?
Our Group’s background:
radical experiments in education since 2007
SKOLKOVO integrated programs:
taskforce for corporate transformation
Innovation management programs:
startup schools, tech+management focus
Unconferences / barcamps
Educational games
Foresights
We see foresight as a part of the conscious collective
effort to change the world
Foresight:
collective vision &
maps of the future
Roadmap: actual
steps (projects,
initiatives etc.) to
reach the future
Our educational, startup & social development
programs (done in conjunction with Agency of
Strategic Initiatives, Skolkovo School of
Management, leading Russian corporations,
nation-wide educational networks &
international institutions) are built around this
model
Projects (startups,
corporate &
social): real
activities
Leader / team
competencies
Resource: finance
& stakeholder
support
We aim to support the full ‘value chain’ of innovation & entrepreneurship
from idea through design and into experiments & implementation
Our focus on future: ‘human practices’
New technologies
Transformation of ‘human practices’
Education & learning
Healthcare
Work
Art & cities
New social & cultural factors
Rapid Foresight: our own approach to it
• Created in 2010 – initially as a tool for education innovators
• Dozens of implementations in Russia & internationally
(WorldSkills, International Labor Organization, SF Bay Area)
• Intensive sessions (days not months) and lower budget with
comparable quality
• Notably more engaging , easily transferrable
Vision into action: educational programs
with a new angle
Foresight into Project Acceleration
• Educamp2010: hackathon-type projects
based on the first Russian education
foresight
• Academgorodok2011: first startup
school in the world based on
StartupGenome findings, projects
based on the city foresight
• SKOLKOVO programs for leading
Russian universities
• First Russian industry-focused startup
accelerator during Foresight Fleet 2013
(40 projects, four got financed)
• SkolTech Hackathon 2013 based on
Global Education Foresight
SKOLKOVO integrated programs
Technology & management programs
with intense project-based education
component:
• Program for Chief Innovation Officers
of Russian government-owned
corporations
• Program for Russian United Aircraft
Corporation
• Programs for R&D managers of
Russian Nuclear Corporation
• Two programs for ‘Smart Grids’
taskforce of Russian Grid Company
(Chief Technology Officers and HIPOs)
Programs start with collective vision building
Resulting projects become real entrepreneurship / intrapreneurship projects
Vision into action (2): some prominent projects
launched with help of ASI since 2011
International platforms (competitions &
standards) introduced into Russia
Russia’s own innovative educational platforms
Mass-scale educational programs
Unique educational experiments (focused on
hands-on leadership education)
Globalnoe
Obrazovanie
Initiative
Foresight Fleet:
probably, the
largest future-awareness
education event in the world
• Run since 2012
• 500+ leaders (policy-makers,
businessmen, educators, scholars,
and artists) no-cell-phone 8 days
voyage
• Intense (20 hr/day) work & play
with complex (integrated)
processes building scenarios for
Russia and the world
• Real outcomes:
roadmaps, startups, deals,
social entrepreneurship projects
Charting the future of education & navigating the map:
a successful model
Year
New Education Charting
Applications of the Map
2010-11
First Russian education foresight at
Educamp 2010
First Russian ‘map of the future of
education’
First session for early stage ed tech
startups
Several student forums
2012
First Russian foresight on higher
education perspectives
Development projects by leader teams of
top 50 Russian universities
2012-13
First Russian skills foresight across 19
industries providing new
requirements for school & university
curriculum based on demand of
industries [Report + Navigator
through jobs of the future
Program of reorganization of transport
industry education (19 universities)
Interactive career-orientation games for
high-school students (Yaroslavl)
Strategy session with World Skills
International BoD
2013-14
First version of the Report on Global
Education Futures Agenda, incl. map
of the future of education & 150pages comprehensive report
Strategy of the Ministry of Education
Development strategies of top 15
universities
First startup accelerator for 40 ed tech
startups (4 obtained financing)
First ed tech hackathon @ Skolkovo
Global Education Futures Agenda: 2014 report
Education Futures 2030 Map:
200+ trends, technologies & educational
formats that will inform global education
agenda
Education Futures Report:
150+ pages of one of the
most comprehensive studies globally
about the future of education
and more to come: web & iPad application, interactive games etc.
www.edu2030.org
Focus of the Global Futures Report
Our focus: the cutting edge of educational practices and
the new global architecture of education
Less developed
nations, ca. 40% of
the world’s
population (Africa,
Latin America,
Central Asia)
As a rule, global
education reports
originate in
‘equalization of
opportunities’ or
‘helping the laggards’
standpoint
Early industrialized
Formation of the basic
system (early industrial
logic). Basic schooling,
parochial schools.
Technical College.
Higher education for the
elite.
Developed
nations, ca. 15%
of the world’s
population
(OECD
countries)
Emerging
nations, ca. 45%
of the world’s
population
(China, India, the
Arab World, SEA)
Industrialized
Late-/post-industrialized
Creation of integrated national
systems (the logic of developed
industrialism). Mass schooling.
Special and technical schools.
Mass higher education, “Big
universities”. Knowledge-focused
education. Qualifications approach.
Formation of educational sphere
(early post-industrial logic). New
teaching approaches. Focus on
skills & competencies. Projectand activity-based education.
Meta-competency education.
This group is
characterized by:
• being at, or near,
technological
frontier, incl. ICT
• ‘first world’
problems
• “encumbrances”
(developed social
institutions of the
industrial past
become liabilities
or burden)
Setting the common ground: major global challenges
calling for the search for new models of education
Digital
technologies
Education tech
start-ups
Hypercompetition &
emergence of
new industries
Education
as an asset
Challenges of
consumer society
Changing models of knowledge creation, preservation and transmission.
Changes in achievement recording and evaluation / assessment procedures.
Changes in the process of managing personal development trajectory.
Changes in the management of educational institutions, etc.
The new & rapidly growing market of solutions with potential to
complement or even replace traditional formats of industrial
education
Demand for educational and research pragmatics
Requirements for the new content and new educational formats:
(a) maximum flexibility & development of meta-professional competences,
and (b) superfast education and narrow-focused competence development
The development of a variety of investment models in education
(including financial investment models).
Demand for quality control and transparency of education outcomes.
Trend: growing share of students with a reduced motivation for
education (when basic needs are satisfied).
Counter-trend: growing proportion of ‘independent learners’
demanding ‘learning their own way’.
Defining Education in Lifelong Context
We see education as an institutionalized process of individual development support
from birth to death. Formalized educational institutions are responsible for only a
fraction of this process.
Personalised
Pragmatic
Team education as a development tool for corporations,
NGOs, state institutions, communities etc.
Early
development
(family,
kindergarten)
Formal education
during the first
trimester of life
(school & university)
Socialization
(in family and in society)
Further development of
professional competency
Elderly
adaptation
Acquiring new knowledge as a hobby or
a change of career track
Development of personal traits
and self-development
Education as a tool that helps solve family problems and
overcome crises (incl. parent education)
-1…
human life cycle
…100+
Multiple stakeholder perspective in analyzing
the future of education
Different stakeholder positions mean different visions of future education
INDIVIDUAL
BUSINESS
(as an employer
and as a seller)
Education for
complete life
cycle
STATE
FAMILY
COMMUNITIES
(FORMAL AND INFORMAL)
Scenario dimensions or facets?
Education is …
holistic
physical
human-intense
synchronous
personalized
institutionalized
conservative







unbundled
virtual
technology-intense
asynchronous
communalized
de-institutionalized
transformative
The perceived contradiction between these polarities is misleading!
Future education models will be created by taking the ‘middle path’
that overcomes, not embraces, these contradictions.
Thus the model of education is integral and inclusive
Transformation of education:
Where the changes come from
Major trends:
• Development of new technologies
• Changes in political & economic environment
• Social & cultural transformations
Infrastructure of
body: medicine &
fitness
Infrastructure of
communication:
ICT
New solutions in
education
Infrastructure of
production &
consumption:
finance
Transformation of
traditional
institutions
Key ‘infrastructures’
of society
Aspects of education:
• Knowledge acquisition &
creation of new knowledge
• Socialization, skills
development, personal growth
• Recording / evaluation of
progress & achievements
Background: some technologies influencing the
transformation of education
‘Brain fitness’
technologies
New psycho-pharm
(2020-)
Cognitive Revolution
HTTP 2.0: Thought
transfer protocol
(2025)
Mass-market
neurointerfaces
‘New authencity’ (2015-2025)
Digitization & Mobility
Full scale virtual
worlds for
work & play
BigData analysis of
everyday behavioral
patterns
Widespread
blended AR/VR
reality in large
cities
Semantic translation
engines (2019)
Domination of
Internet of things
‘Strong’ artificial
intelligence (also used
in virtual worlds)
(2027)
Automation of Intellectual Routines
2013
2016
2025
2035
Key trends that shape the new (holistic) model of education
Globalization of education: МOOCs and other truly transnational providers,
threat of ‘educational imperialism’ and ‘battles for educational sovereignity’
Personalization: first demanded by economies that directly invest into talents, then
increasingly demanded by self-managed learners
Community-based learning: from education that focuses on best performing teams, to
communities of practices (and families, and neighbourhoods, …) that increasingly own
their learning processes
Gamefication: from edutainment that supports education, through games that help
overcome trauma & dysfunctional social behaviour, to games that become the core of
education, work and daily lives
Change of knowledge-management models: from digitalization of science and the
‘fourth paradigm’, through intense use of semantic technologies, into AI-based live
knowledge of CoPs and the ‘New Aristotel’
NeuroWeb: from ‘Quantify Self’ applied to education (esp. real-time biometry), to use of
neural interfaces for direct download of experiences and learnings
New Education Landscape
in 3-5 yrs
• МООСs integrated by
educational trajectories
• Academic grades give
way to achievement
recognition &
competency passports
• New models of direct
talent investment and
other financial /
insurance tools in
education (for learners &
investors)
in 7-10 yrs
• The first ‘Billion-Student
University’
• Mentor networks and
artificial tutors
• Mass market solutions for
full-scale education
without ever entering
school or university
• Major role of gaming
environments and
augmented reality
• Objectivation of education
process via biometry /
neurointerfaces
in 15-20 yrs
• Game and teamwork are
predominate forms of
education and social
interactions
• Artificial intelligence as a
mentor (“Diamond Age
Primer”) and a partner in
research
• ‘Live knowledge’ models
and the death of
Gutenberg Galaxy
• Education in NeuroWeblinked groups and new
pedagogy
Obsolesce of Formats
Following existing educational formats will be largely recognized in
developed countries as ineffective or obsolete given the availability of
feasible alternatives
by 2017
• ‘Human phonograph’
industrial teaching based
on standard textbooks &
tests (replaced by ICT
based solutions)
• Standardized tests
(complemented &
replaced by tests more
focused on unique &
creative abilities)
• Semester grades
(replaced by continuous
result recording)
by 2025
• Graduation diplomas
•
(replaced by life-long
•
competency diploma)
•
• Academic journals
(replaced by researcher
communication networks),
citation indexing standards
& IPR management system
(replaced by
comprehensive digital KM
ontologies)
• Single-author textbooks
• ASCs as a social deviation
by 2035
Comprehensive schools
Research universities
Texts (books & articles)
as a predominant
medium of knowledgebased communication
Education in human life cycle:
from sprinting to marathons
Education 2013
Education 2030
education of the ‘firstthird’ of life (school &
university) followed by
professional education
interventions
0…
lifelong education through all
stages of adult life, with
second ‘intensity peak’ during
the transition into eldery life
Intensity
Intensity
25
50
childhood education
culminating in ‘rite of
passage’ into adult life
75
Life time
0…
25
50
75
Life time
100+
Learner’s path in 2030 education (demand side)
Goal-setting
Self-defined
(and continuously
adjusted) personal
development goals
Goals defined by the
role model (‘My
Hero’s Path’)
Goals defined by or
with mentors as
guides though
educational process
Team games / group projects that correspond
to the level and goals of individual development (or
development in the family)
Personal development trajectory
Achievement
recording during
education process
Worldview, languages, intellectual
development (IQ)
Personal competency
‘passport’
Social and managerial skills
(SQ / EQ)
Integrated portfolio of
creative achievement
(incl. game
achievements)
Managing body-and-mind states,
healthy behavior (PQ / EQ)
‘Enforced’ goals
(e.g. by parents or
employers)
Online
courses,
knowledge
libraries
Simulators
and
MMORPG
Biometry /
biofeedback
wearbles and
neurointerfaces
Project/game tasks and participants markets
Indicators of the
quality of educational
process (engagement,
‘flow’)
Supporting
tech
solutions
Evaluation and feedback
from mentors, peers,
users of project results,
members of
communities of practice
Learner’s tech environment in 2030 education (supply side)
Bio-monitoring
(wearables etc.)
“Cloud” of competence
models and standards
&
Developer’s tools (ed
products & integration
into non-ed products)
EDSTORE
Ed-BigData:
data processing systems
Gateways to game worlds,
social networks and
collaborative environments
Educational trajectory
management interface
Assessment and
certification systems
(incl. games and social
networks)
Libraries of MOOCs and
simulators (with rankings)
Online competency
passport &
integrated portfolio
Opportunity markets
(vacant positions/projects/games to gain
experience and/or reputation)
New financial tools (reputational capital, investment solutions)
Financial & insurance instruments for New Education
Instrument
type
Key logic
Trends supported
1
Direct talent
investment
- return on investment
- transparency, accountability,
manageability
- personalization of education
- data mining of profitable
education&career trajectories
2
Insurance
model
- being competent is like being
healthy (hence: ed insurance
plan)
- investment protection
- support to direct talent investment
model
- personalization of education
- education in communities / teams
3
Ed co-op
- co-financing the development - education in communities / teams
of community / team
competences
4
Educational
bookmaking
- ‘’players’ bet on their ability
to learn a subject or master a
skill
- gamefication of education
- personalization (competing with ‘peers’)
5
Exchange &
accumulation
of reputation
capital
- reputation in community is
exchanged and increased
through learning & teaching
- education in communities / teams
- gamefication of education
Technoparadigm in Education –
Teacher’s Friend or Foe?
Obsolescent occupations
• ‘human phonograph’
teachers & professors
• certain administrative
positions(e.g. educational
process planners)
• authors of ‘pre-digital’
textbooks
Emerging occupations
Occupations dealing with development and
implementation of solutions for:
• ‘blended’ learning that combines online / offline
learning modules
• learning through real-life projects
• learning embedded in games
• learning using wearables
• managing education and career trajectories
• evaluation and assessment
Significant growth in the number of workplaces
with a major shift in key competences demanded
Big Markets for New Education
Educational systems become educational spheres. This creates a number of new
large markets where new companies size of Google or Facebook will thrive.
Backbone solutions
Virtual worlds for
playing and learning
Neuro- solutions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Competence,
achievement &
reputation tracking
Ed search engine
and/or EdStore
Ed-BigData solutions
Ed developer tools
Ed trajectory
management &
artificial tutors
Mentor networks
Opportunity and
talent exchange
markets
•
•
•
•
•
Simulators for
prolonged team
training
Simulators for
alienated &
delinquents
Games with
augmented reality in
corporate & urban
environment
Simulators of risky &
hazardous situations
‘Playing with values’
‘Psychodrama worlds’
•
•
State-of-mind training
tools (incl. wearables)
& attention
management schools
Measurement of
engagement &
learning attained
Sensoriums
New ed finance
+ solutions to
‘patch up’ industrial
model of education
Big Markets for New Education:
Wave of Startups & Spin-offs
•
Crisis in education
recognized
ICT called to
address the issues
Ed tech a new fashion
•
New generation of leaders
in education rises
2010-2017
‘Crutches’ and ‘patches’
for the current system
using existing ICT
infrastructure.
Growing bubble in ed
tech market segment.
2017-2025
Plunging of ed tech market players
focused on solutions
complementary to existing
education. Growth of solutions
offering new standards. Wars of
standards and formats. Next gen
ICT infrastructure used (incl. AIs,
AR, biomonitors & neurointerfaces
etc.)
2025 - 2035
New education solutions become
the basic infrastructure in the
developed world
The ‘double hump’
effect is typical for
many innovative sectors
and could also be
expected in ed tech
market. Businesses that
remain afloat after the
initial bubble collapses
will set new standards
Risk of overheating and
collapse is compensated
by the possibility of
emergence of gamechanging innovations.
At this point it is not
possible to forecast
which startups have
better become the
backbone of the new
educational sphere –
thus experimenting is
crucial
What will happen to ‘industrial’ education model?
Changes in education systems strongly resemble the ones
that take place in the energy sector with the proliferation
of smart grids:
• ‘Industrial model’ (mass / standardized) education
system will provide the ‘base load’ educational service
for another 15-20 years, until efficient & sustainable
alternatives are developed, able to provide same or
higher quality services with lower cost
• However, ‘industrial model’ education will rapidly lose
its monopoly as more and more alternative providers
emerge (kids born in 2013/14 will be able to get high
quality / reasonable cost education without ever
entering school of university)
• Return on investment in ‘industrial model’ schools &
universities will become substantial lower (due to
effects of new education) and the industrial age
education systems in most countries will keep
deteriorating, increasing inequality within & between
education systems (with some leaders breaking far
ahead)
Cost of service
New Education
‘Industrial’ education
~2020-25
time
The speed of emergence of the New
Education will depend on whether
new solutions will be able to
provide same or better services for
lower cost in areas invested by the
state (socialization and social
adaptation, national security etc.)
Questions that are more important than answers
How to create a truly holistic educational model that…
• addresses the variety of changing human needs and personal challenges
throughout human life?
• resolves the inevitable conflict between our personal learning needs and
needs of communities & organizations that we are part of?
• retains and embraces diversity, becoming the place where our most
authentic qualities can thrive?
• works towards better future, and takes the role of transformational
leadership in implementing such future?
• becomes fair & just through gradual elimination of inequalities related to
income, geography, gender, race, age, native language etc.?
‘Future ecosystem’ logic: growing together
Some elements (components, relations) may
be weak or non-existent in present quasiecosystem. Thus, most of new educational
solutions fall back onto existing system
structure (K-12, college, university etc.)
Collective vision building
informs us about possible
future designs of sector
ecosystem architecture
Ecosystems can be ‘grown’ as independently
viable yet interdependent solutions that support
and strengthen each other.
Growing infrastructural solutions that tie
ecosystems together is particularly important.
Three sessions, three locations, one world, one map
2
December 2014
Moscow
for Europe,
Middle East
& Africa
October 2014
Vladivostok
for Asia &
Pacific region
3
SF East Bay Area
local ecosystem
project
February 2015
San Francisco
for Americas &
the World
Russia
national
ecosystem
project
1

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