TMDLModelBackground_110211b

Report
Background on Water Quality
Models for the Truckee River
WQS Review Process
November 2, 2011
Laura Weintraub, Dave Dilks
Overview
• Water Quality modeling to support the WQS
(water quality standards) review process
• Watershed model:
– WARMF development and calibration
• River water quality model:
– TRHSPF development and calibration
• Overview of model updates
• Intended use of the models
2
Need for Water Quality Modeling in
WQS Review Process
3
Conceptual Watershed/Water Quality Model
4
Model Linkage – Observed Conditions
Climate
Soil Types
WWTPs
Pollutant
Loads
Land Use
Watershed
Model
Management
Practices
Water Quality
Model
Water
Quality
Water
Quantity
Reservoir
Releases
WARMF
TRHSPF
5
Model Calibration Process
• Certain model parameters cannot be directly
measured, and must be indirectly estimated by
finding which values allow the model to best describe
the observed data
– Process is called model calibration
• Calibration guidelines
– Keep calibration parameters within reasonable range
– No single objective measure of model calibration
6
Compliance with Dissolved Oxygen (DO) Standard
is Key Element for Aquatic Life Beneficial Use
Sunlight
Temperature
Flow
Dissolved
Oxygen
Aeration
Nutrients
(N&P)
Organic Matter
Algae
Truckee River downstream of Lake Tahoe
7
Use of Models in the WQS/TMDL Process
WWTPs
Climate
Land Use
Management
Practices
Nonpoint
Loads
Watershed
Model
Water Quality
Model
Water
Quality
8
Use of Models in the WQS/TMDL Process
WWTPs
Climate
Land Use
Management
Practices
Adjust Point Sources
or Land Management
Practices
Nonpoint
Loads
Watershed
Model
Water Quality
Model
Water
Quality
No
Meets WQS?
Yes
Done
9
WARMF Development and
Calibration
10
WARMF: Watershed Model
• Peer reviewed, public
domain
• Predicts watershed flow and
pollutant loads based on
–
–
–
–
•125 catchments
(subwatersheds)
•Time step = 1 day
land use
meteorological conditions
water management
watershed improvements
11
Key Processes of WARMF
• Driven by meteorology and land use
– Simulates nonpoint source loads; point source loads are input
• Simulates hydrology, mass balance, acid-base chemistry,
erosion / sediment transport, pollutant build-up / wash-off,
water quality, algal nutrient dynamics (simplified)
• Evaluates changes in nonpoint loading with varying land use,
meteorological conditions, water use
Subsurface
Processes
Mineral Weathering
AMD
Septic Systems
Organic Matter
Decay
Nitrification
Cation Exchange
Plant Uptake
12
WARMF Input Data
Data Type
Data Source
Topography
USGS DEM (Digital Elevation Model)
Details
Basis for watershed delineation
Meteorology
NCDC, SNOTEL
Daily data of precipitation, min/max temp,
cloud cover, wind speed, air pressure, dew
point temperature
Air Quality
NADP/CASTNET
Weekly data of dry and wet deposition
Managed flow
(diversions)
FWM, TROA Information System,
USGS
Reservoir
USGS, USBR, CDEC
Point sources
TMWRF, NDEP, TTSA
Land Use / Land Cover
NLCD, Washoe County
Observed Hydrology
USGS, TRIG
Observed Water Quality
TMWRF, TRIG, NDEP, STORET,
LRWQCB, TTSA
Flow for all active agricultural and M&I
diversions (46)
Flow release, elevation, and bathymetry for 6
managed reservoirs
2 major and 5 minor sources; flow and WQ
records
Spatial data circa late 1990’s; 12 LULC
categories
All USGS gages (~ 30) within watershed
Real-time and grab water quality samples at
13
stations throughout watershed (~40 stations)
WARMF Calibration / Application
• Model Calibration: 1990-1997
• Model Confirmation / Verification:
– 1985-1990
– 1998-2004
• Calibration Report: Systech, 2007. Adaptation of the WARMF
Watershed Decision Support System to the Truckee River Basin of
California and Nevada, 2007 Calibration Report, Prepared for City of Reno
and City of Sparks, NV, Prepared by Systech Engineering, December 2007.
• Report available on TRIG
14
TRHSPF Development and
Calibration
15
TRHSPF: River Water Quality Model
•
•
•
•
•
Long history of HSPF applications in Truckee River (USGS)
Updated to include periphyton based on DSSAMt science
Open code, EPA-supported, peer reviewed
Inputs are flow, watershed loads, point sources
Predicts water quality response of river
– nutrients  periphyton  dissolved oxygen
16
TRHSPF Model Domain
• 43 segments from E. McCarran Blvd to
Marble Bluff Dam
• Average reach length 1.31 miles
•Time step = 0.5 hr
17
Key Processes Modeled in TRHSPF
• Stream hydraulics
• Water quality
– Temperature, nitrogen, phosphorus, algae, oxygen
18
Key Processes Modeled in TRHSPF
(continued)
• Mass transport (Nitrogen, Phosphorus, TDS)
• Nutrient dynamics
• Productivity (algae growth and decay)
– Performed literature review on benthic algae
modeling
– HSPF Enhancements based on DSAMMt
algorithms
19
TRHSPF Input Data
Data Type
Data Source
Climate (Hourly)
NCDC, WRCC
Streamflow
USGS
Water Quality
TMWRF (YSI & Grab)
TMWRF
TMWRF
Diversions
FWM, TROA Information System
Repeat of time series based on
Nowlin (1987) / Brock (1992) / Pohll
(2001)
Groundwater
Upstream / tributary
loads
Historical data or WARMF output
Details
Air Temperature, Dew Point,
Wind, Cloud Cover, Solar
Radiation (by reach)
Flow for 6 locations
WQ (YSI) updated for 3
parameters at 9 locations.
WQ (Grab) for 18 parameters
at 9 locations.
WQ input updated for 16
parameters
Flow for 10 diversions
WQ input updated for 13
parameters
TR at Reno, Steamboat
Creek, N. Truckee Drain
20
TRHSPF Calibration / Application
• Model Calibration: July 2000 – August 2002
– Many parameters estimated from data
– Concurrent algae biomass and water quality data available for
calibration
– Acceptable comparison confidence that algorithms can predict
benthic algae reasonably well
• Model Confirmation / Verification: 1990, 1995, 1996
• Calibration Report: LimnoTech. 2008. Final Draft Calibration of the
Truckee River HSPF Water Quality Model. Prepared for the Cities of Reno
and Sparks, Nevada, January, 2008.
• Report available on TRIG
21
Model Updates
22
Truckee River Water Quality Model
Updates
• Goal: develop best possible tools given reasonable time,
information, and funding
• Due diligence to ensure models work well for recent time period
• Model update steps:
– Extended models to run through 12/2008 – updated all databases
– Capture changes in loading due to Truckee Meadows development
– Conducted model confirmation runs – held model calibration parameters
constant
– Documenting changes to models and databases, results of model
confirmation
• Share model information with the focus stakeholder group
23
Model Database Updates:
WARMF Land Use / Land Cover
• Old Land Use / Land Cover (LULC) data reflective of
late 1990’s
• Rapid growth and development through 2006
• New LULC reflective of recent growth
• Combination of several datasets
– 2006 National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) – underlying base layer
– 2010 Washoe County / Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency –
developed parcel data supersedes NLCD data
– Site-specific additions based on “parks” layer /Google Earth: ski
resorts, golf courses, parks, animal feeding operation
24
25
Late 1990’s previously in WARMF
26
New 2006/2007 layer
imported to WARMF
(increased development)
27
Evaluation of Linked WARMF/TRHSPF
Modeling Framework
• Previously used data to drive TRHSPF upstream
boundary – now using WARMF results
• Comparison of TRHSPF results to data isn’t just
evaluation of TRHSPF, but evaluation of linked
WARMF/TRHSPF
• Allows for modeling of river WQ response based on
changes in watershed
28
TRHSPF DO Results at Tracy / Clark
Dissolved Oxygen at Tracy/Clark
(2000-2002)
Observed Data
Modeled Range
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1/1/2000
Observed Data
20
14
Modeled Range
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
6/29/2000
12/26/2000
6/24/2001
12/21/2001
6/19/2002
12/16/2002
0
1/1/2003
6/30/2003
12/27/2003
6/24/2004
12/21/2004
6/19/2005
12/16/2005
Dissolved Oxygen at Tracy/Clark
(2006-2008)
Observed Data
16
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)
16
Dissolved Oxygen at Tracy/Clark
(2003-2005)
Modeled Range
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1/1/2006
6/30/2006
12/27/2006
6/25/2007
12/22/2007
6/19/2008
12/16/2008
29
TRHSPF DO Results at Marble Bluff
Dam
Dissolved Oxygen at Marble Bluff Dam
(2000-2002)
Observed Data
Modeled Range
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1/1/2000
Observed Data
18
14
Modeled Range
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
6/29/2000
12/26/2000
6/24/2001
12/21/2001
6/19/2002
12/16/2002
0
1/1/2003
6/30/2003
12/27/2003
6/24/2004
12/21/2004
6/19/2005
12/16/2005
Dissolved Oxygen at Marble Bluff Dam
(2006-2008)
Observed Data
16
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)
Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)
16
Dissolved Oxygen at Marble Bluff Dam
(2003-2005)
Modeled Range
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1/1/2006
6/30/2006
12/27/2006
6/25/2007
12/22/2007
6/19/2008
12/16/2008
30
Summary of Model Update
• Confirmation of WARMF and TRHSPF for 2000-2008
period
– Model updated to reflect rapid regional growth through
2006
• Both models are ready for use to support the thirdparty WQS and TMDL review efforts
• Third-parties welcome comments and questions
from Focus Stakeholder group
• Model confirmation report being finalized
31
Intended Use of Models for WQS Review
• Provide linkage between nutrient loading to the
Truckee River and resulting dissolved oxygen levels
• Account for other factors (flow, temperature, light,
organic matter, aeration)
• Understand balance of nutrient concentrations
which result in DO WQS attainment under a range of
flow conditions
32
Model Linkage – Observed Conditions
Climate
Soil Types
WWTPs
Pollutant
Loads
Land Use
Watershed
Model
Management
Practices
Water Quality
Model
Water
Quality
Water
Quantity
Reservoir
Releases
WARMF
TRHSPF
33
Model Linkage – Future Conditions
Flow Management
Model
Climate
Soil Types
WWTPs
Pollutant
Loads
Land Use
Watershed
Model
Management
Practices
Water Quality
Model
Water
Quality
Water
Quantity
WARMF
TRHSPF
34
Water Quality Model Linkage
Demands,
Water Operations,
In-stream Flow Targets
RiverWare or
TROM
Reservoir
Releases,
Diversions
Meteorology, Land Use,
TMWRF Effluent and Re-use
WARMF
Diversions
TMWRF Effluent
Tributary Flows,
Nonpoint Sources
TRHSPF
In-stream
Water Quality
35
Selection of Flow Management Model
• Flow management model will provide a mechanism
to determine a representative low flow condition
with current river operations and historical climate
• TROM (Truckee River Operations Model)
– Long history of application in Truckee River
– Previously coupled with WARMF/TRHSPF for test
simulation
• RiverWare
– Newer model; water accounting version functional
– Still under development
36
Next Technical Steps in WQS
Review Process
• Finalize model update report; distribute to
stakeholders
• Solicit feedback from stakeholder group
• Construct / run a set of scenario runs
– Establish representative low flow
– Link flow management model with WQ models
– Vary N and P concentrations  DO response
• Document any recommendations for revised
WQS
• Submit report to NDEP for WQS Review
37
Questions?
38

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