2014metrostudy - Home Builders Association of Greater Chicago

Report
Chicago Executive Briefing
Prepared for RCEC
September 18, 2014
National Economy
Job Growth Rank State
Dallas/Fort Worth
Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Annual Job Growth
Total Employed
3,196,500
Annual Change
113,100
Percent Change
3.7%
SF Permit Change
1,467
Los Angeles
5,671,600
111,900
2.0%
0
New York
8,839,400
111,200
1.3%
3,070
Houston
2,883,000
93,300
3.3%
3,889
Miami
2,417,900
67,900
2.9%
422
Atlanta
2,465,200
59,400
2.5%
3,243
San Francisco
2,152,400
48,000
2.3%
-43
Seattle
1,825,100
40,600
2.3%
-409
Orlando
1,099,800
36,100
3.4%
1,389
Denver
1,329,000
34,800
2.7%
1,007
Chicago @ #20 with 24,300 Net New Jobs, UP 0.5%
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrosearch USA
National Economy
Home Ownership Rate -
Quarterly Trend
75.0%
74.0%
73.0%
72.0%
71.0%
US Rate
Midwest Rate
70.0%
69.0%
68.0%
67.0%
66.0%
65.0%
64.0%
63.0%
2q94
2q96
2q98
2Q14
2q00
2q02
2q04
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2q06
2q08
2q10
2q12
2q14
Source: US Census Bureau
National Economy
Housing Market State
Houston
Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Single Family Permits
SF Permits
35,451
Annual Change
3,889
Percent Change
12.3%
Job Growth
93,300
Dallas/Fort Worth
20,995
1,467
7.5%
113,100
Atlanta
15,158
3,243
27.2%
59,400
Washington DC
13,257
1
0.0%
6,000
Phoenix
12,121
-283
-2.3%
28,300
New York
10,527
3,070
41.2%
111,200
Austin
10,082
1,619
19.1%
31,000
Orlando
9,697
1,389
16.7%
36,100
Charlotte
9,176
1,310
16.7%
21,400
Seattle
8,404
-409
-4.6%
41,600
Chicago @ #14 with 7,507 SF Permits, UP 17.6%
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrosearch USA
National Economy
Housing Market State
New York
Top Ten MSA’s Ranked by Multi Family Permits
MF Permits
33,358
Annual Change
11,122
Percent Change
50.0%
Job Growth
111,200
Dallas/Fort Worth
21,256
6,733
46.4%
113,100
Houston
19,168
2,144
12.6%
93,300
Miami
11,212
1,535
15.9%
67,900
Seattle
11,071
1,911
20.9%
40,600
Austin
10,081
-1,756
-14.8%
31,000
Washington DC
9,873
158
1.6%
6,000
Atlanta
9,279
2,597
38.9%
59,400
Denver
7,791
233
3.1%
34,800
Chicago
7,140
2,915
69.0%
24,300
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrosearch USA
The Local Market
Chicagoland Market
Chicagoland Region -
Year by Year Jobs Gained & Lost
150,000
< - - - - - - - - - - - - - 322,400 Net New Jobs - - - - - - - - - - - - - >
100,000
50,000
0
522,500 Jobs
237,100
Jobs
168,300
Jobs
-50,000
-100,000
196,700
Job
s
-150,000
337,300
Jobs
-200,000
-250,000
1994
1996
2Q14
1998
2000
2002
2004
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2006
2008
2010
2012
2q14
Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security
Chicagoland Market
Chicagoland Region -
Labor Force & Total Employed
4,250,000
Labor Force
Total Employed
4,125,000
4,000,000
3,875,000
3,750,000
3,625,000
3,500,000
3,375,000
3,250,000
Jun-94
Jun-96
Jun-98
2Q14
Jun-00
Jun-02
Jun-04
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Jun-06
Jun-08
Jun-10
Jun-12
Jun-14
Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security
Chicagoland Market
Chicagoland Region -
Monthly Unemployment Rate
12%
11%
9%
8%
6%
5%
3%
2%
0%
Jun-94
Jun-96
Jun-98
2Q14
Jun-00
Jun-02
Jun-04
Jun-06
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Jun-08
Jun-10
Jun-12
Jun-14
Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security
Chicagoland Market
Job Growth -
Jobs Added/Lost by Job Sector During Past Year
Mining & Construction
Manufacturing
1,500
-7,200
-1.8%
Trade/Trans/Utils
5,000
Information
Financial Act
-1,700
-3,600
1.7%
Prof&Bus Services
1.3%
Ed & Health Services
Leisure&Hosp
13,000
8,600
3,200
Other Services
1,100
0.8%
Government
4,400
-10,000
0
10,000
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
20,000
30,000
40,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, MetrosearchUSA
Where People Work & Live
WORK IN
LIVE IN
IL
COUNTY
TOTAL
IN
IA
KY
MO
WI
OTHER
14,818
7,604
6,403
811
0
0
0
30
737
44
2,581,745
2,076,152
417,288
88,305
55,748
451
452
938
8,402
22,314
De Kalb
40,909
30,216
10,486
207
26
12
0
0
66
103
Du Page
547,116
270,521
269,275
7,320
2,475
163
53
199
1,179
3,251
Grundy
17,038
10,177
6,529
332
116
10
0
9
0
197
207,042
126,502
79,138
1,402
262
94
11
32
426
577
27,058
14,583
12,337
138
37
0
0
0
44
57
Lake
353,007
232,703
95,562
24,742
593
160
46
162
20,925
2,856
Mc Henry
107,751
77,951
25,058
4,742
49
7
0
63
4,332
291
Will
227,156
145,604
75,768
5,784
4,435
44
48
87
177
993
Winnebago
134,742
108,675
20,261
5,806
56
67
46
61
5,137
439
4,258,382
3,100,688
1,018,105
139,589
63,797
1,008
656
1,581
41,425
31,122
COUNTY
Boone
Cook
Kane
Kendall
TOTAL
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security
Median Income Trends
Year
United States
Illinois
Chicagoland
2005
$54,387
$59,113
$64,346
2006
$55,176
$59,225
$64,921
2007
$56,189
$59,936
$65,618
2008
$55,484
$59,970
$65,366
2009
$53,760
$57,769
$62,868
2010
$52,703
$55,784
$60,136
2011
$51,557
$54,346
$58,463
2012
$51,371
$55,137
$59,261
2013
2Q14
Released in September of 2014
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security
Chicagoland Resale Market
Chicagoland Market
SF Resale Housing Market -
Annual Sales & Active Listings
70,000
21.0
60,000
18.0
50,000
15.0
40,000
12.0
30,000
9.0
20,000
6.0
10,000
3.0
0
Months Supply
Sales/Listings
5.1 Month’s Supply of Inventory
0.0
2q09
4q09
2q10
4q10
2q11
Annual Sales
2Q14
4q11
2q12
Listings
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
4q12
2q13
4q13
2q14
Months Supply
Source: Illinois Association of Realtors
Chicagoland Market
SF Resale Housing Market -
Median Price Monthly Trend
250,000
Up 7.3% from June, 2013
Up 6.2% from Previous Month
225,000
200,000
175,000
150,000
125,000
100,000
Jun’10
Dec’10
2Q14
Jun’11
Dec’11
Jun’12
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Dec’12
Jun’13
Dec'13
Jun'14
Source: Illinois Association of Realtors
Chicagoland Market
Chicagoland Region -
Median Sales Price, New vs. Resale
320,000
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
Resale
New
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
2Q14
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Source: Metrostudy Analytics
Chicagoland Market
Foreclosure Transactions Region
Cook County
2013 & 2014 Comparison
YTD 2013
6,177
YTD 2014
2,059
Numeric Change
-4,118
Percent Change
-66.7%
Will County
2,301
2,092
-209
-9.1%
Lake County
1,334
1,006
-328
-24.6%
DuPage County
1,319
686
-633
-48.0%
Kane County
1,165
666
-499
-42.8%
Lake, IN County
659
536
-123
-18.7%
Winnebago County
677
180
-497
-73.4%
McHenry County
664
305
-359
-54.1%
Kendall County
322
191
-131
-40.7%
DeKalb County
119
96
-23
-19.3%
Grundy County
13
14
1
14,750
7,831
-6,919
TOTALS
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
7.7%
-46.9%
Source: Metroearch Property Analysis
Chicagoland Market
Foreclosure Transactions -
2013 & 2014 Comparison (No Cook)
Region
Will County
YTD 2013
2,301
YTD 2014
2,092
Numeric Change
-209
Percent Change
-9.1%
Lake County
1,334
1,006
-328
-24.6%
DuPage County
1,319
686
-633
-48.0%
Kane County
1,165
666
-499
-42.8%
Lake, IN County
659
536
-123
-18.7%
Winnebago County
677
180
-497
-73.4%
McHenry County
664
305
-359
-54.1%
Kendall County
322
191
-131
-40.7%
DeKalb County
119
96
-23
-19.3%
Grundy County
13
14
1
8,573
5,772
-2,801
TOTALS
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
7.7%
-32.7%
Source: Metroearch Property Analysis
Metrostudy Residential Survey
Chicago Market
27
5
,0
,00000
16
20
6,00
2,733 Total Subdivisions
1,498 Active Subdivisions
1,235 Future Subdivisions
307 Furnished Model Homes
225,000
1
615,000
0,7
,05000
200,000
112,5
,00000
15705,0
,00000
4,000
,0
111
50,02
,5
000
000
40,000
12
3
,0
185
,,000000
30,000
100,000
67
,05000
2,000
7
5
,00000
20,0
45
,00000
50,000
0000
1102,0
,0
,
2
0
25,5
000
000
000
22
12
QQQ
000
444
222
QQQ
000
666
222
QQQ
000
888
222
QQQ
111
000
222
QQQ
111
222
222
QQQ
111
444
1,065 Finished & Vacant Homes
2,801 Homes Under Construction
48,969 Vacant Developed Lots
238,321 Future Lots
12-Counties & 24 Field Research Personnel
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
“Active” Subdivisions (VDL Inventory)
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
151 Subdivisions >12 Starts Past Year
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Annual New Home Starts & Closings -
12-Month Moving Total
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
Annual Starts
Annual Closings
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2q94
2q96
2q98
2Q14
2q00
2q02
2q04
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2q06
2q08
2q10
2q12
2q14
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Annual New Home Starts & Closings -
12-Month Moving Total
6,000
5,500
Annual Starts
Annual Closings
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2q10
4q10
2Q14
2q11
4q11
2q12
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
4q12
2q13
4q13
2q14
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Year to Date New Home Starts -
2q13 & 2q14 by County
600
550
530
500
450
400
YTD 2013
447
YTD 2014
439
395
374
340
350
321
300
245
250
226
200
185
142
150
173
170
164
150
129
100
50
14
29
11
27
18 25
7
6
0
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Housing Inventory
Chicagoland Market
Finished Vacant Inventory & Months Supply
6,000
6.0
Month’s Supply
Finished Inventory
5,000
5.0
4,000
4.0
3,000
3.0
2,000
2.0
1,000
1.0
0
0.0
2q04
2q05
2q06
2Q14
2q07
2q08
2q09
2q10
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2q11
2q12
2q13
2q14
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Finished Vacant Inventory -
2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County
300
250
236
2q13 FIN
200
197 202
192
2q14 FIN
198
184
168 163
150
125
100
86
50
43
86
47
52
42
45
35
31
19
19
20
15
6
12
0
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Under Construction Inventory 600
500
400
2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County
525
503
439
502
485
2q13 U/C
383
2q14 U/C
369
351
300
253
235
200
187
199
157
130
100
154
116
64 65
26 32
0
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
15
26
19 16
Source: Metrostudy
181 Subdivisions with a Furnished Model
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Lot Inventory
Chicagoland Market
Annual New Home Starts & Lot Inventory -
Annual Trend
70,000
300
Starts
Lots
Months Supply
60,000
250
50,000
200
40,000
150
30,000
100
20,000
50
10,000
0
0
2q04
2q05
2q06
2Q14
2q07
2q08
2q09
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2q10
2q11
2q12
2q13
2q14
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
New Lot Deliveries -
Lot Deliveries by Year
40,000
37,255
35,175
35,000
32,178
30,905
30,000
25,000
28,441 28,478
23,099
21,016
20,000
15,000
10,000
7,773
5,000
763
383
563
1,488
1,073
1,472
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2q14
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Vacant Develop Lot Inventory 13,000
12,000
2q13 & 2q14 Comparison by County
11,968
1 1,442
11,000
10,000
2q13 Lot Inventory
2q14 Lot Inventory
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
6,031
6,035
5,647
5,828
5,447
5,626
5,000
4,349
4,190
4,000
3,987
3,754
3,000
3,268
3,138
3,081
2,000
2,946
2,517 2,515
2,072 2,048
1,000
1,624 1,570
876
0
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
877
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Vacant Develop Lot Inventory 500
1,554 1,024
1,076 649
Months of Supply by County
1,438 671
450
443
410
400
2q13 Supply
2q14 Supply
350
308
300
250
235
200
200
188
167
150
126
100
90
90
100
84
68
50
65
71
59
41
26
0
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Dormant Subdivisions -
Vacant Developed Lot Status
Lots
48,969
Share
100%
35,701
73%
Number of lots on the ground for single-family detached homes.
13,268
27%
Number of lots on the ground for townhomes and duplex units.
30,044
61%
Lots in communities with no starts activity during the past twelve months.
19,325
39%
Lots in single-family detached communities with no activity.
10,719
22%
Lots in attached product communities with no activity.
2,792
6%
Lots in Cook County with no activity (95 subdivisions).
2,081
4%
Lots in Kane County with no activity (62 subdivisions).
6,251
13%
Lots in Will County with no activity (157 subdivisions).
5,495
11%
Lots in the hands of the BIG builders.
43,474
89%
Lots NOT in the hands of the BIG builders.
1,701
3%
2Q14
Comments
Includes lots for both attached and detached housing.
Lots in Joliet with no activity (31 subdivisions)
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
369 Subs with 25 Lots & No Starts
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Communities with No Activity City/Village
Joliet
Ranked by Lot Inventory Remaining
No. of Subdivisions
30
Lots
1,701
Annual Resales
764
Median Price
$125,000
Ann Foreclosure
1,557
Yorkville
27
1,465
204
$225,000
158
Rockford
36
1,080
1,077
$96,807
246
Manhattan
10
997
263
$200,000
62
Chicago
27
839
6,022
$210,000
1,252
Channahon
15
827
79
$190,000
58
Plainfield
16
817
963
$203,000
870
Oswego
7
654
348
$225,000
115
Woodstock
16
585
232
$167,000
58
Caledonia
2
580
40
$210,550
5
Frankfort
10
568
395
$289,000
221
Belvidere
12
497
232
$123,500
100
Beecher
14
489
44
$147,500
95
Matteson
9
483
115
$125,000
42
Loves Park
14
476
150
$132,000
72
McHenry
12
464
478
$158,000
181
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Municipality Ranking City/Village
Elgin
Ranked by Annual New Home Starts
Ann Starts
322
Ann Closings
264
INV
225
Mo. Supply
10.2
VDL
1,544
Mo. Supply
57.5
Naperville
315
255
245
11.5
743
28.3
St. John, IN
222
211
153
8.7
764
41.3
Crown Point, IN
183
188
118
7.5
657
43.1
Chicago
180
131
228
20.9
1,050
70.0
Huntley
169
156
104
8.0
797
56.6
New Lenox
167
142
122
10.3
785
56.4
Oswego
163
135
115
10.2
1,258
92.6
Pingree Grove
155
185
151
9.8
570
44.1
Plainfield
140
113
113
12.0
1,468
125.8
Aurora
137
150
87
7.0
667
58.4
Hampshire
118
111
100
10.8
533
54.2
Bolingbrook
106
103
56
6.5
252
28.5
Winfield, IN
96
95
59
7.5
249
31.1
Joliet
93
77
66
10.3
2,206
284.6
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Community Ranking -
Communities Ranked by Annual Starts
Communities (Ann Starts)
1. Cambridge Lakes (155)
2. Talamore (141)
8
3. Lakewood Crossing (113)
2
3
4. Carillon Club/Naperville (110)
1
9
5. Bowes Creek (76)
7
5
6. Mill Creek (64)
6
7. Edgewater of Elgin (63)
8. Grand Dominion (60)
10 4
9. Highland Woods (60)
10. River Hills (59)
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
Chicagoland Market
Builder Ranking Builder Name
Ryland Homes
Top Home Builders by 2014 Metrostudy Closings
1q14
70
2q14
159
3q14
-
4q14
-
Total Closings
229
D.R. Horton
67
112
-
-
179
M/I Homes
58
71
-
-
129
Pulte
66
56
-
-
122
K. Hovnanian Homes
46
60
-
-
106
Orleans Homebuilders
18
37
-
-
55
Lexington Homes
23
27
-
-
50
William Ryan Homes
22
22
-
-
44
Hartz Construction
27
13
-
-
40
Olthof Homes
20
19
-
-
39
Ryan Homes
17
19
-
-
36
Toll Brothers
9
18
-
-
27
Phillippe Builders
9
12
-
-
21
Sho-Deen Homes
7
12
-
-
19
BnA Homes
9
5
-
-
14
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: Metrostudy
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Source: The Atlantic
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Chicagoland Market
Chicagoland Region -
Median Sales Price, New vs. Resale
320,000
300,000
280,000
260,000
240,000
Resale
New
220,000
200,000
180,000
160,000
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
2Q14
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Source: Metrostudy Analytics
Conclusions
Concern over demographics, incomes & job growth
Still a large gap between used & new home prices
Housing inventory levels are low
New lot development beginning to occur again
Prices continue their upward trend
More builders getting into the fray (much needed)
More subdivisions beginning to show signs of life
Maybe we just need be happier…
2Q14
© Copyright Metrostudy 2014
3Q10
2Q14
2014
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
Thank You
Chris Huecksteadt
847.241.6570
www.metrostudy.com

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