Framing green growth and sustainable development GG BINGO • A sheet with multiple words related to green growth and sustainable development is provided to all participants; • To ensure that everyone is listening intensively, every time you hear a word on the sheet place a mark in the respective square; • When you reach 100 marks, stand up and yell out BINGO – there will be a prize. Presentation outline • What is green growth in the global and regional context? • Why green growth should be inclusive? • How to visualize green growth? • Overview of opportunities and challenges in pursuing green growth • Different approaches for different development stages Global context of Green Growth • Green growth is economic growth that is environmentally sustainable (WB, 2012) • Enhances the quality of growth • End goal is to operationalize sustainable development Figure from PovertyEnvironment Partnership 2012. Green Growth and Sustainable Development • Sustainable development is defined in many ways but the most common definition is “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (Brundtland 1987). • UNCED in 1992 and WSSD in 2002 called for all countries to prepare a NSDS and establish a NCSD before 2005. • Simple explanation is that inclusive green growth is the process that will lead to an equitable green economy, which is a stepping stone towards SD. Regional context of Green Growth “In Africa, green growth will mean pursuing inclusive economic growth through policies, programs and projects that invest in sustainable infrastructure, better manage natural resources, build resilience to natural disasters, and enhance food security.” (AfDB, 2012) Asia's policy makers must pursue inclusive and green growth simultaneously if they wish their people to enjoy the fruits of sustainable growth. There is no trade off. (ADB, 2012) The developing world is growing fast Fastest-growing countries are in developing world What factors are pushing growth in developing regions? • improved governance with growing democratic accountability and reduced conflict • discovery and exploitation of minerals and oil and gas deposits • attracted investors as last bastions of growth • gains of Asian prosperity spread to Africa with China as leading investment partner • “brain-drain” to “brain-gain” as expatriates return Development paths are not the same And the quality of current economic growth is neither inclusive nor sustainable • growth is heavily dependent on either a resources boom which cannot last forever or exports to a shrinking developed world • GDP growth drivers do not create the most jobs, leading to jobless growth • 50% of Africa’s population are without access to energy, other basic infrastructures and services; likely exacerbated by climate change impacts • much of Asia has no access to basic services, poverty is still prevalent, and environmental quality is rapidly degrading. If resource depletion is taken into consideration, national savings often reveal a negative trend. On average, the genuine wealth growth in subSaharan Africa is estimated to be negative (Arrow et al., 2004). Adjusted net savings measures give an indication of the net saving rate when national accounting frameworks account for resource depletion and environmental degradation. Source: UNEP, 2011. Human impacts on ecosystem goods and services Sustainability pressures in developing countries Determinant Trend Characteristic Population increasing High fertility rates, especially among less educated and poor populations; but the overall rate of population growth is predicted to decrease in the mid-term future. Economy Increasing High GDP growth rates per year; mainly from agriculture and natural resources exploitation. Rural-urban migration Increasing Many young people move to cities to seek employment opportunities; rural areas drained of youth, reducing social vitality; urban lifestyles are energy and resource intensive. Consumer-class Increasing The so-called ‘good life’ typified by media images of western-style consumerism now define the lifestyles of the consumer class and aspirations of the poor. Market pressure Increasing Innovative ways of stimulating consumption, such as aggressive advertising, credit card use, consumer loans, and rebates after purchase are on the rise. Poverty Variable , but absolute numbers not declining Developing world is home to most of the world’s total poor. They predominantly live in slums in cities and in rural areas (unsustainable livelihoods). The rate of deforestation in Africa is four times the world's average (RRI, 2009). Poor infrastructure in rural areas (Photo: Jonathan Kalan/Global Post) Working on degraded land (Photo: Panos London) Unprotected small scale miners (Photo: Heather Murdock/Global Post). Adverse impacts of climate change (Photo: WB) • threat to human life, health, livelihood, food security • drags development growth, drives the cycle of poverty • increases overall risks and vulnerability Deaths due to environmental causes MPI: Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (Source: UNDP, 2011) How to find a sustainable development path? “the major cause of the continued deterioration of the global environment is the unsustainable pattern of consumption and production...” Agenda 21, Chapter 4 from energy and carbon intensive development paths exacerbating climate change to a low carbon, inclusive and sustainable development path... Why pursue green growth? • to sustain growth beyond minerals and oil and gas boom • to avoid natural resource overexploitation • to make growth resilient to climate change and other diverse environmental impacts • to ensure food, water and energy security • to explore new opportunities for job creation • to prepare the infrastructure for the future • Above all, to overcome poverty Green growth is Adapting to changing realities for development …which operate over multiple scales (local to global) and time-horizons (near to long-term) Source: Sperling, 2012. Green growth represents an iterative process leading towards a green economy BAU GG Source: Sperling, 2012. NOTE: • GG pathway tailored to development circumstances • Near term: more focus on managing local priorities • Consider irreversible consequences with long term impacts How to visualize green growth? Sustainable infrastructure Photo: AfDB The award-winning transport system in Guangzhou, in south China's Guangdong province, includes not only Bus Rapid Transit but wide, tree-lined bicycle lanes and a tie-in to the large city's rail network. (Photo: Li Huang) Energy access (Photo: The Economist) http://sirix.eu/ Sustainable agriculture mainstream More decent and quality jobs Source: McKinsey Global Institute. 2012. Africa at work: Job creation and inclusive growth. Photo: www.one.org Better quality of life Better education Better career options We cannot afford to “grow now, clean up later” Number of haze days/yr in different cities in China Photo: Fan Meng Overview of opportunities and challenges in pursuing GG Challenges: • inadequate enabling policies and regulatory framework; poor enforcement • poor and inadequate infrastructure • not enough public funding and private investments • limited awareness of best practices • not enough skilled human resources Opportunities: • early adoption of sustainable policies and programs; avoid ‘lock-in’ • growing investments in infrastructure • shift public funds and diversify savings from resource investments • facilitate behavioural change • facilitate education and training OECD’s GG framework for developing countries What are the entry points in mainstreaming green growth? Development oriented • aligned with national development plan • aligned with climate change action plan • aligned with NAMAs/NAPAs Immediate start with long term plan • not a quick fix but with tiered goals • consider transition scenarios • greening the process Collective effort • strong political commitment • openness to engaging the private sector • civil society and community participation The Malaysian example Malaysia is a resource-rich country that used its natural resource wealth to diversify, grow their economy and transition towards green growth. • Third Plan (1976 -1980) • • Ninth Plan (2006 - 2010) Source: KeTTHA, 2012. • • emphasized that the objectives of development and environmental conservation be kept in balance so that the benefits of development are not negated by the costs of environmental damage various policies, programs and measures have been initiated to ensure that the nation's economic development over the long term be sustained in April 2009, the Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water (KeTTHA) was created National Green Technology Policy on 24 July 2009 unveiled New Economic Model in October 2010 towards low carbon growth A tale of 2 countries, 2 choices Uganda • in 1980s exports mainly coffee (96%) • by 2000, diversified into tobacco, cotton, sesame, flowers, etc. • today, added highervalue products like cement, bulldozers, etc. • GDP growth: 6.5% in 1990s to 7% in 2000s • 1990 poverty more than halved to below 25% Source: AfDB, 2012. Zambia • dependent on export of copper • haven’t embraced diversification • GDP growth: 5% ave. in the last decade • growth confined to capital-intensive resource sector, less job creation • poverty remains above 50% Key messages • greening growth now makes economic sense in all countries, but will vary from country to country; • green growth is beyond low carbon energy strategies vary depending on the country circumstances but complement climate change actions; • green growth pathway can guide the diversification of resource-rich economies and create new jobs: and • green growth is a collective, contributory process towards sustainable development, not a substitute. Thank you for your attention. Exercise 1 Compare and Contrast Business as Usual and Green Growth Compare and Contrast Business as Usual and Green Growth • Split into 2 small groups of 8-10 people • Half of each group holds the position of a normal economic planning group in a Ministry of Planning and Development. • The task of this group is to prepare a brief plan for economic development in the industry sector of a fictional country “Exploitia” – Divide the flip chart into two columns and on the left side put the key policies for industrial development in Exploitia. (estimated time 15 minutes) • The second half represents a group of planning staff in the Ministry of Environment, which is concerned by the industrial plans for Exploitia. Compare and Contrast Business as Usual and Green Growth • On the right side of the flip chart the environment group will propose counter policies or policy adjustments to “green” the economic policies outlined earlier. (30 minutes). • The 2 groups will then debate arguments for and against the proposed amendments and record these on a separate flip chart sheet (15 minutes). • Report back to plenary by both tables (15 minutes).