Presentation title here

Report
Building the Next Generation Mobile
Network
Vision & Blue Print
Towards a SMART Broadband Caribbean Community
Vincent T Spinelli
Managing Director, Mobile Solutions Group
Juniper Networks
AGENDA
The SP Conundrum
New Architectural Approach
Architectural Vision leveraging Software Defined Networks
(SDN)
Paths toward Monetization
 A smarter Caribbean means a more connected Caribbean with new
services models
2
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
MOBILE SP SERVICE PARADIGM
TODAY’S CHALLENGES CENTERED ON OPTIMIZATION
Need to ensure profitability over
potential capacity increases toward
higher data rates and mobile data.
Price Pressure
 Voice Revenue
 Big Data Pipe
Access
(Voice OR Data)
Traffic
Peak
Costs
Revenue & Traffic
De-Coupled
Revenues
Voice Dominant
Monetization
Data Dominant
Time
3
Big Pipe
(Voice AND Data)
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
 I-Phone/Android
Phenomenon network
effect
 Over-The-Top Applications
 Backhaul
 IMS and the “Killer App”
 Applications are FREE
 Regulatory Concerns
Applications
www.juniper.net
THE MOBILE SP CONUNDRUM – BIGGER PICTURE
SP Margins
SP Industry
50% +
OTT Services
20-50%
Mobile Services
10-20%
Fixed Services
4
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
THE MOBILE SP CONUNDRUM – BIGGER PICTURE
How long until Mobile services
commoditize?
SP Margins
50% +
SP Industry
Mobile voice is not elastic (we don’t
do more of it if it gets cheaper)
OTT Services
Value of connectivity/access is
declining
Monetization
10-20%
20-50%
Better consumer segmentation is
required
Mobile Services
Cost Optimization Service transformation is key to
10-20%
5
solve the conundrum
From access provider to
service company
Business transformation
Fixed Services
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
MOBILE ARCHITECTURAL THINKING MUST SHIFT
SP Margins
SP Industry
Mobile
Architecture
50% +
OTT Services
Application
Layer
20-50%
Mobile Services
Service Control
& Enforcement
Layer
3GPP evolution and standardization
has and perpetuates tremendous
value
 Roaming
 Global Harmonization
 Cost Control
Standards are necessary but not
sufficient
IMS does not reflect reality
Subscriber policy use cases
can not keep up
Telco 1.0 >> Telco 2.0
10-20%
Fixed Services
Access Layer
 Standardization versus innovation
 Lower layers – standardize system
architecture
 Higher layers – standardize
approach
Social applications require social
networks
6
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
TODAY'S BUSINESS/ARCHITECTURAL PARADIGM
Millions of Customers
Application/Content
Over-The-Top
Services/Service
TELCO
1.0 Revenue
Consumers
Application Layer
SMB
COST
Service Control &
Enforcement Layer
Access Layer
7
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
REVENUE
Enterprise
NEW PARADIGM – TRANSACTIONAL VALUE
Insertion In The Economic Value Chain
Millions of Customers
Application/Content
Advertising
Application
Development
TELCO 2.0
Consumers
Application Layer
REVENUE
SMB
REVENUE
Retail
Service Control &
Enforcement Layer
Government
Content
Access Layer
REVENUE
Banking
8
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
Enterprise
B2B
TELCO 2.0 REQUIRES A SMART NETWORK
IMPACT ON NET NEUTRALITY AND PRIVACY
Intelligent networks are often characterized
as smart pipe (versus dumb pipe)
The smart pipe is not about favoring the
Access Provider’s content; it is a network
resource management and a security
problem
“Off-Net”
“On-Net”
Over-The Top
Content
Managed/Hosted
Content
 Conditioning (not blocking) misbehaving
applications (and subscribers) to ensure
equal access to all applications
 2% of subscribers consume 80% of network
resources
The Network is the common denominator for
which open, efficient, and secure
intelligence delivery (BIG DATA) may be
supplied to the Application
Development/Application Service Provider
community
Subscriber
Profile/Identity
Location
Messaging
Presence
Network
Profile/Identity
Handset is partly a mobile SP managed
device today
 IP layer to radio layer
 Application layer is decided by Subscriber
9
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
HOW DO WE MAKE IT WORK?
SOFTWARE DEFINED NETWORKING (SDN) IS KEY
Standardized
Systems
Standardized
Approach/Framework
Mobile Service
Architecture
10
Application Layer
Service Control &
Enforcement Layer
Leverage
SDN
Principles
Access Layer
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
Evolve Business Processes
Evolve Access Network
Evolve Core Network
MOBILE NETWORK VISION
SIMPLIFICATION, FLEXIBILITY, & AUTOMATION
Physical Plane
TODAY
FUTURE
Reduce and simplify the layers of
PoC
Points of Concentration
Distributed Data Centers
Data Center
Internet Peering
Virtualized Core
GMSC Site
EVOLUTION
MSC Site
Aggregation/Hubbing Cell Site
IP Radio Routers
RNC/BSC Site
Virtualized RAN
3-5 hops of
microwave
Reduction of
Microwave hops
Hotelled Macro Cell Sites 3G/4G/WiFi SC/Femto
Architectural Planes
Simplification of layers
Simplification of protocols/interfaces
Flexible architecture based on software
OSS/BSS LAYER
REDUCE COMPLEXITY/MINIMIZE DB
SERVICE LAYER
Application
Layer
Service
Control &
Enforcement
Layer
Access Layer
USER ELEMENT (UE)
HANDSETS, SMARTPHONES
MACHINES
RADIO ACCESS NETWORK
MULTI-ACCESS/HETNET
SOFTWARE DEFINED NETWORKING
MOBILE CORE NETWORK
EVOLUTION FROM CS TO PS
SOFTWARE DEFINED NETWORKING
TRANSPORT/TRANSMISSION NETWORK
EVOLUTION FROM TDM/OPTICAL TO IP
11
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
CONSEQUENCES ON BUSINESS DYNAMICS OF
ORGANIZATIONAL SEGMENTATION
Core
Access
VAS
Network
DC infra
OSS
IT / DataCenter
Enablers
CRM
Transport
Apps
BSS
Operations
Layers and domains derive from
20-years old technology constraints
driven architecture
Organizations, and consequently
Business processes, have been
thought using this segmented model
Subscriber churn
Gate
Marketing
Prd. Mgmt
Network/IT
CFO
Traditional business
process
Less than 30% of
Loss of favourable
churn
new ideas
are
‘approved’ and go
OpEx (loss of HE
to costs)
market
Go
Feasibility study phase : 3-4 months
12
On
Hold
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
Revenue loss
www.juniper.net
NEW ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS
Empowering Service Providers to create revenuegenerating services with the same dynamics as OTT
B2B2C
MVNOs
Consumer
M2M
Corporate
Marketing &
Sales
Service Creation
and Delivery
Automation of Service Control
Analytics behavioral feeds
Network / IT / DataCenter
(distributed physical/virtualized
resources and assets)
13
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
HOW DO YOU CREATE REVENUE INSTEAD OF JUST
CARRYING TRAFFIC?
Behaviour/Social-Based Services
Better Consumer Segmentation
 Analytics-Based Policy
 Personalization – subscriber-based policy controls
Network-Based APIs
 Leveraging Big Data in the Mobile Network
 Partnering with the broader application community
B2B2C/B2B2E
 M2M enterprise services
14
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
REQUIREMENT: BETTER CONSUMER SEGMENTATION
Predictive
Analytics
Detect dynamic
resource usage
Create new
service
offerings on
the fly
Online and
Historical
network trends
Online and
Historical usage
trends
15
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
OTT,
appstores
Understand
dynamic usage
behaviors
Lead to happier and
more stickier customers
Network / IT /
DataCenter
Better Consumer Offers
Personalization
APIS ARE BUILDING BLOCKS FOR DIGITAL SERVICES
Non-telcos: Which telecom APIs
are most valuable?
Billing / payments
61%
Identity / subscriber data management
46%
Location
APIs are how customers
get to your business, and
how you create, consume
and control digital
services.
28%
SMS / MMS
26%
M2M
20%
UC / call control
20%
Security
20%
Presence and IM
Device capability discovery
Other
16%
13%
25%
• Airtime top up
• Data roaming
• Device configuration
• Mobile money
• Number portability
• Prioritization
• QoS
• RCS service APIs
• SIM / UICC APIs
• Voice / video calling
% of respondents Base: Non-telcos involved in API ecosystem (n=192)
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, Exposing Telecom APIs survey, 2012
75% of developers that Informa surveyed believe demand for communications
APIs will rise due to ongoing mobilization of the web and cloud services.
16
* Source Informa
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
M2M SERVICE GROWTH
MARKET BREAKDOWN
By 2020 Carrier TAM grows to $292B total, $6B connectivity, $2.8B for Mobility
M2M MNO TAM to 2020 (All Connections)
$350
Global Connected Devices to 2020
$292B
$300
$250
25B
12.0B
$286B: Higher Value
• Device
• Provisioning
• Data Collection
• Reporting
• Analytics
$200
$150
$100
$25.0B
$0.6B
$50
2.0B
5.7B
0.6B
0.7B
$0
2010
9.5B
$6B: Connectivity
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
M2M MNO TAM to 2017 (Mobility)
$3,000
$2.8B
$2,500
Revenue (US$ Millions)
1.2B
1.6B
$0.4B
$2,000
$1.6B
$1,500
$1,000
$0.7B
$500
$0
CY11
GSM/GPRS/EDGE
Source: GSMA, Machina Research
17
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
CY12
CY13
CDMA2000/EV-DO
CY14
CY15
W-CDMA/HSPA
CY16
CY17
WiMAX
LTE
THERE’S A ‘DISCONNECT’ IN THE TELECOM
INDUSTRY WHEN THINKING ABOUT SDN*
Here’s what 240 telecom
operators told Informa.
In fact, SDN is the
linchpin to deliver
on top-line growth
expectations.
2013: What technologies and services
will drive top-line growth?
4G / LTE
Cloud computing
Superfast fixed broadband
Apps and app stores
On-demand video
Converged billing
Machine to machine (M2M)
Multiscreen video
Wi-Fi
High-definition video
Carrier Ethernet
SDN
58%
32%
25%
22%
21%
21%
20%
20%
17%
17%
17%
2%
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, 2013 Industry Outlook survey
Operators believe that SDN is something divorced from service monetization.
18
* Source Informa
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
KEY TAKEAWAYS
TOWARD A SMARTER BROADBAND CARIBBEAN
Rethink how we design, build, and operate: From Network to Services
 Standardization versus Innovation
 Monetization & Cost Optimization enabled by Software Defined
Networking
 Cost optimization as part of SP hygiene
 The real value of SDN is in monetization
Consumer segmentation provides better consumer service and
subscriber self control resulting in happier customers
The Network is a platform with a rich set of APIs that are the
foundational building blocks for digital services
M2M services will be key differentiators
19
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
Juniper Networks Offers
Innovative IP Solutions
to Improve Customer Experience and SECURELY
OPTIMIZE and MONETIZE
the Mobile Network
PERSONALIZATION USE CASES
WHAT OPERATORS DO TODAY
USE CASE
Fair usage
%
Bill Shock / Roaming Controls
80%
QoS Control
60%
Fair Usage
60%
Redirection (Upsell)
36%ye
d
o
l
PCC (Policy and Charging Controls)
e3p6%
ts d
E
Service Tiers
Fir 32%LT
Roaming control (bill shock)
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 2
Tier 1
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 1
Tier 2
24% n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n QoS Control, 60%
USA LTE
2009 n
20%
Pass
Service
n
n
n
n
Indonesia
2011
Parental Controls, 16%
16%
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
USA Promotions / Zero Rating2011 n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
BrazilPrioritization (Service, Subscriber)16%
2011
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Parental Controls
(Service, n
Prioritization
Indonesia
2010 16%
n Subscriber), 16%
n
n
n
France
2009 16%
Device Tethering
n
n
n
n
n
Poland
Time-based Controls 2009 12%
n
n
n
Slovakia
2012 8%
Shared quotas
Zero Rating,
/n
Promotions
Fair Usage, 60%
n
n
n
EgyptFMC Quota Control 2012 8%
16%
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Kenya
2009 4%
VoLTE
n
n
n
20%
Pass,
Service
JapanVideo Optimization 2010 4%
n
n
n
n
n
USA
2010 n
n
n
n
n
Austria
2012
n
n
Belarus
2012
Redirection (Upsell),
LTE , 24%
n
n
Bulgaria
2012
36%
n
n
Croatia
2012
n PCC (Policy
n and
R. Serbia
2012
Tiers,
Service
n
Charging
R. Macedonia
2012
32% n Controls), 36%
n
n
Slovenia
2012
n
n
n
n
n
South Africa
2010
PoC
n
n
Canada
2011
n
n
Turkey
2010
n
n
USA
2011
n
n
n
n
n
Netherlands
2009
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Kuwait
2008
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc. www.juniper.net
Tiered services and service
boosts
Web session (HTTP) control
LTE promotion
Tiered QoS
21
r)
ls)
rt o
be
i
r
8%
Control,
Quota
FMC
ls
% Video Optimization,
on
sc
ro
4%
C
b
t
g
u
n
S
on
ng
i
4%
VoLTE,
i
,
t
C
g
8%
Sharedicequotas,
g
ls Ra
)
l
ar
ro ro ls min sell g
rv tion
t
Ch
tro
e
e
n
o
n
n
p
a
S
a
d
Z tr
Time-based Controls,
(
o
o
o
ri as
U
iz12%
an
on im rs ss d C s / on / R n ( he ot a C
ol
il cy age ntr zati pt Tie Pa ase tion al C ck tio Tet qu uot
c
o s
E
Co riti eo O vice vice e-b mo ent Sho ire ice red C Q
(P
S Tethering,
v
L T CC air UDevice
d
r
l
a
r
r
io id 16%
o
l
m
o
o
i
e
r
r
a
V
P
F
Q
P
V
Se Se Ti P
P
B
R
De Sh FM
NETWORK DESIGN MUST TRANSFORM TO 21ST
CENTURY NORMS
Legacy Network (Telco 1.0)
New Mobile Network (Telco 2.0)
Network Design
 Static
 Over Provisioned
 Multi Network for voice, video,
data services
 Elastic
 Flexible, Scalable, Centrally Managed
Nature of Network
 Proprietary, Silo’d
 Open and much less proprietary
Management
 Network Operations Center
 Service Operations Center
3rd Party Interface
 Closed “Intelligent Network”
 Proprietary
 Web based Protocols
 APIs
Service Velocity
 16-18 month innovation cycle
 Reactive, me-too, services
 In-house
 Expansion into new markets and
services
 High degrees of personalization
 Out-sourced/In-house development
22
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
DIGITAL ECONOMY FOUNDED ON COMPUTE & COMMUNICATIONS
EXAMPLE - THE VALUE OF THE NETWORK HAS CHANGED
Sarnoff’s Law

Rapid Adoption of Group Forming
Networks/Communities of Interest
The total value of a communications
network grows with the square of the
number of devices or people it
connects

Facebook - 2007

.3
Tandem Switching
Metcalfe’s Law

4
WWW - 1984


38
Radio- 1922
5
10
15
20
Value Of Potential Connectivity =
bN(N-1) è bN2 optional transactions
Ethernet, Internet Protocol
“Reed’s Law” on Group Forming
Networks
16
PC - 1972
The total value of a communications
network grows with the square of the
number of devices or people it
connects

13
Television - 1946
0
Value = aN; where N = number of
users
25
30
35
40


Years to 50 million users
Advertising Example
Group Forming Networks are
communities of interest whose
connectivity value scales exponentially
to N
Potential Value = c2N-N-1 è c2N
Social Networking, Transactional Value
Therefore Total Value Of Network: aN +
bN2 + c2N è c2N
GFN Transactions Create More Value
Per Unit Of Network Investment
23
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
*Source: The Sneaky Exponential – Beyond Metcalfe’s Law to the Power of Community Building; David Reed
WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO MAKE IT WORK
Elastic allocation of
service-level resources
(centralized, distributed)
Policy
driven
control of
subscriber
services
Distributed
Service Provider
control domain
Distributed
Behavioral
knowledge of
subscriber
(Analytics)
Behavioral community
24
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net
Centralized
MACHINE TO MACHINE
VERTICAL BREAKDOWN
M2M connections will grow from 2B in 2011 to 12B in 2020
M2M Connections
by Sector in 2020
Source: GSMA, Machina Research
25
Copyright © 2010 Juniper Networks, Inc.
www.juniper.net

similar documents