Andrew Sum Power Point on Pathways to Prosperity

Report
Key Findings on the Labor Market
Experiences of Teen and Young Adults (16-24 Years
Old) in the U.S. from 2000 – 2012: Implications for
Pathways to Prosperity
Andrew Sum, Director
Center for Labor Market Studies
Northeastern University
Boston, Massachusetts
March 2013
Key Findings on the Labor Market Experiences of
Teen and Young Adults (16-24 Years Old) in the U.S. from
2000 – 2012: Implications for Pathways to Prosperity
1.
The Great Age Twist in the Employment Rates of U.S. Adults (16-75)
over the 2000 – 2012 Time Period
2.
Trends in the Employment Rates of U.S. Teens from 2000 – 2012 and
Changes in the Job Distribution by Major Industry and Occupation
3.
The Early Labor Market Transition Experiences of High School
Graduates Not Enrolled in College
4.
Trends in the Employment Rates of the Nation’s 20-24 Year Olds Over
the 2000-2012 Period; Variations in Employment Prospects Across
Educational Groups; the Steep Rise in Labor Underutilization Among
Young Adults
5.
The Real Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Employed Young Adults Over
the Past Few Decades; the Declining Absolute and Relative Weekly
Earnings of Young Full-Time Employed Adults in the U.S.; the Lost
Path to Prosperity
Absolute Change in Employment-Population Ratio of 16-to-79
Years Old by Single Age, U.S., 1999/2000 and 2011/2012
Absolute Change (In Percentage Points)
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78
Age
Percent Change in Employment-Population Ratio of 16-to-79
Years Old by Single Age, U.S., 1999/2000 and 2011/2012
80.0
Percent Change in E/P Ratio
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
-80.0
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78
Age
Trends in the Employment / Population Ratios of
Teens, Selected Years, 2000 – 2011 (in %)
50
45
45.5
40
37.2
37.6
Per Cent
35
30
26.8
26.3
2010
2011
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2003
2006
Year
Trends in the Employment Rates of New High School
Graduates Not Enrolled in College in October of the Year of
Graduation, Selected Years 1999/2000 – 2011
80.0
Per Cent
70.0
69.6
60.0
57.8
58.6
56.0
51.0
50.0
45.6
45.5
40.0
1999-2000
2003
2007
2008
Year
2009
2010
2011
The Full-Time Employment / Population Ratios of
Non-College Bound High School Graduates in October 2011,
Class of 2011, All and by Race-Ethnic Group
30.0
24.0
25.0
25.0
21.0
Per Cent
20.0
15.0
10.0
7.0
5.0
0.0
All
Black
Hispanic
Group
White, not
Hispanic
Trends in the Employment / Population Ratios for
20 – 24 Year Olds in the U.S., 2000 – 2012 (in %)
74
72
72.2
70
67.9
Per Cent
68
68.4
66
64
62.1
62
60.7
60.9
2010
2011
61.5
60
58
56
54
2000
2003
2007
2009
Year
2012
Median Real Weekly Earnings of Full-Time Employed
16-24 Year Olds by Gender, U.S., Selected Years, 1973-2012
(in Constant 2012 Dollars)
(A)
(B)
Men
Women
1973
662
501
1979
608
477
1989
502
455
1996
449
416
2000
502
456
2001
509
459
2008
492
447
2009
491
454
2012
468
416
Per Cent Change, 1973 – 1989
-24.2%
-9.2%
Per Cent Change, 1989 – 1996
-10.7%
-8.6%
Per Cent Change, 1996 – 2001
+13.4%
+10.4%
Per Cent Change, 2001 – 2012
-8.0%
9.4%
Per Cent Change, 1973 – 2012
-29.3%
-17.0%
Time Period
Employment/Population Ratios of 20-24 Year Olds in Selected
Educational Attainment Groups in the U.S., 2000-2012
90.0
80.0
70.0
Per Cent
60.0
50.0
80.5
75.4
71.9
60.5
60.2
74.7
61.7
45.5
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
H.S. Dropout
H.S. Graduate
13-15 Years
BA or Higher
Degree
Median Weekly Earnings of Young Men (16-24) Relative to
Older Men (25 and Over), Selected Years, 1967-2010 (in %)
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
74.0
67.0
62.4
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
54.3 54.4
51.2 52.2
53.7 54.3
52.5
53.8 53.8
52.5
50.7
Comparisons of the Actual Median Real Weekly Earnings of Full-Time
Employed Young Men and the Median Weekly Wages They Would Have
Earned If They Had Maintained Their 1967-1973 Real Weekly Earnings
Growth Rates, Selected Years 1973-2010 (in 2010 Dollars)
1200
1000
847
1002
1014
483
466
466
443
2001
2007
2009
2010
904
774
800
629
600
976
629
680
707
577
510
400
477
426
200
0
1973
1979
1982
1989
Actual Weekly Earnings
1996
Hypothetical Weekly Earnings

similar documents