Exit, Voice or Accommodation?

Report
“White Flight” in London
and the UK?
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,
Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]
Save our Census!
• The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use
the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the
help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study
Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is
supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme
(Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are
responsible for the interpretation of the data.
• Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with
the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's
Printer for Scotland.
• The results presented are based on a test version of the LS
database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be
subject to change when the final version of this database
is released in November 2013.
Community and Closure
'Neighborhoods can be open only if countries
are at least potentially closed...The
distinctiveness of cultures and groups
depends upon closure and without it cannot
be conceived as a stable feature of human life'
– Michael Walzer Spheres of Justice (1983)
Theoretical Framework & Data
• Does local diversity increase or reduce white
hostility to immigration?
• Two measures: Desire to reduce immigration and
support for the populist right
• Data, pooled dataset of four Citizenship Surveys
2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11
• The Citizenship Survey has asked the question:
“Do you think the number of immigrants coming to
Britain nowadays should be increased a lot, increased a
little, remain the same as it is, reduced a little, or
reduced a lot?”
Minorities and Immigration
• “Battle lines are being
drawn between the
Roma …and the locals –
predominantly Pakistani
families”
Not just white British….
Proportion of people who want to reduce immigration,
by ethnoreligion and birthplace, 2007-11
100
90
80
83
77
73
70
65
65
60
54
55
UK-Born
50
42
40
30
20
10
0
White British
Sikh
Hindu
Muslim
Source: Home Office/DCLG Citizenship Surveys, 2007-11 (Cumulative)
Foreign-Born
Not just working class….
Percentage of people who would like to reduce levels of immigration, by class and
ethnic group
100
90
80
70
60
50
white British
minorities
40
30
20
10
0
Higher/lower mng
Intermediate
Lower supervisory
Semi-Routine
Never
worked/unemployed
Students
Immigration slider
Size matters
• At the individual level: the unemployed/social housing
tenants or routine or semi-routine workers, no more or
less likely to be opposed to immigration.
• Respondents who belonged to the lower
supervisory/technical groups and identified as English
were more likely to want to reduce immigration
• Respondents living in more deprived areas, no more or
less likely to want to reduce immigration
• Ward-level diversity a positive effect whilst LA diversity
negative
• Population churn as important as inter-ethnic
friendships in lowering desire to reduce immigration.
Support for the populist right
• Do people vote for the far right (BNP) or
populist right (UKIP) as a response to
demographic change in their local area?
• As with immigration, dual relationship to
support for the far right and diversity:
negative at ward level, positive at local
authority level.
• Demographic profile of UKIP and BNP voters
broadly similar but geography?
White Flight?
Net Migration from London by Ethnicity: with rest of England & Wales,
1971-2011
1971-1981
1981-1991
1991-2001
2001-11
White
British
In
3,030
3,724
3,566
2,953
Net Migration to London from Rest of England and Wales
Out
Net
% Change
7,495
-4,465
-14.7%
7,208
-3,484
-11.0%
7,402
-3,836
-11.0%
6,962
-4,009
-13.4%
1971-1981
1981-1991
1991-2001
2001-11
White
British
-14.7%
-11.0%
-11.0%
-13.4%
WB Working/
Middle Class
-14.0%
-12.0%
-12.7%
-15.3%
WB
Professional
-11.2%
-10.0%
-6.4%
-12.4%
WB with
Children
-21.9%
-13.1%
-15.1%
-19.6%
WB
Twenties
-2.1%
11.7%
27.7%
24.0%
Minority Working/
Middle Class
2.1%
2.3%
-1.5%
-4.1%
Minority
Minority
with
Professional Children
1.9%
0.7%
3.1%
3.3%
-1.3%
-3.6%
-3.8%
-6.9%
Minority
Twenties
9.6%
11.0%
2.3%
0.5%
1971-1981
1981-1991
1991-2001
2001-11
Minority
1.0%
2.7%
-1.9%
-4.1%
How did Ethnic Groups Move?: by Ethnic
Neighbourhood Type, 2001-11
9.8
9.7
9.6
7.6
-1.4
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
-0.4Caribbean
Indian
-2.9
-4.1
-4.4
-7.1
-7.2
-8.4
70-100% Minority, 70-100% Own Group
70-100% Minority, less than 70% own group
0-20% Minority
Source: R. Johnston, M. Poulsen, J. Forrest, Multiethnic residential areas in a
multiethnic country? A decade of major change in England and Wales,’ Environment
and Planning A 2013, volume 45, pages 753 – 759
Change
in Segregation (ID), 1991-2011,
Changes in Mutual Segregation (index of dissimilarity),
for Combinations of Groups, 1991-2001 and 2001-2011
England and Wales
78.0
White
BritishMinority
73.0
68.0
White-BME
63.0
White
BritishMuslim
58.0
53.0
1991
2001
2011
78.0
77.0
76.0
75.0
74.0
73.0
72.0
71.0
70.0
69.0
68.0
White-Pk
White-Bangla
76.0
71.0
CaribbeanPakistani
66.0
1991
2001
2011
CaribbeanWhite
61.0
White
British_bangla
51.0
White
British_pk
41.0
White BritishCaribbean
Bangladeshi
-Pakistani
56.0
CaribbeanMinority
46.0
HinduMuslim
36.0
1
2
3
• White British-Minority little change
• White British-individual minorities modest
decline
• Minority-minority largest decline
Source: Catney, G. 2013. ‘Has neighbourhood ethnic segregation decreased,’ Dynamics of
Diversity: Evidence from the 2011 census (JRF/Manchester: February), ethnicity.ac.uk
Quintiles (ONS LS 2011)
Diverse fifth of Homogeneous fourWards
fifths of Wards
White British net
outflow
Minority net outflow
2011
40.7% Minority
4.9% Minority
2001
27.8% Minority
2.4% Minority
1991
19.8% Minority
1.5% Minority
Smart Census Data Plotter
file:///C:/1-Data/1-1-work/1-Research/1-1-Projects/1white%20flight/Models/UK/Ridgway/dependent%20children/5
dplot_fromtxt_quick%20start.swf [Class; Dependent Children v
20s; Mixed Ethnicity House; English; Tenure]
http://www.smartcensus.org.uk/index.php?option=com_wrapp
er&view=wrapper&Itemid=611 [time permitting, to show
deprivation-density-diversity link]
White
British
66% out , 12% into
diversity:
Net ‘Segregation’
23% out, 40% into
diversity:
Net ‘Integration’
- 12%
Minorities
- 66%
- 40%
-23%
Comfort with spouse of different race among ward
movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey)
To Whiter To Diverse Sample
very comfortable 61%
39%
83
fairly comfortable
neither
comfortable n
fairly
uncomfortable
very
uncomfortable
don't know
Total
67%
33%
33
57%
43%
46
64%
36%
11
76%
58%
63%
24%
42%
37%
25
24
222
Conclusion
• Minorities integrate, white British segregate?
• White British prefer 90+% white areas, except in
their 20s
• Not ‘white flight’: white cultural attraction based
on life stage subculture rather than anxiety over
boundaries
• Anti-immigration, political or racist attitudes not
strongly linked to moving to whiter area, esp
when compared to stayers
• No selection bias
…..
• Local conditions matter for national issue
perceptions and vice-versa
• Upper working/lower middle class are somewhat
more likely to be both ‘white flighters’ and white
nationalists
• White attitudes to immigration may be softened
by contact in locale;
• Or may be hardened by diversity in metro and/or
by jumps in minority presence in formerly lilywhite areas
Potential Policy Implications
• Immigration: not principally about white
working class
• Housing: retain white British population
(social housing, housebuilding, benefits)
• Housing: aim for dispersed building, slow
demographic change. Not to disperse
minorities to homogeneous areas
• Schooling: yes to mixed catchment, but
sensitivity to white tipping

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