PowerPoint-presentatie

Report
Carlo van de Weijer
Director Strategic Area
Smart Mobility TU/e,
TomTom Traffic Solutions
Disruptive Mobility
Asfaltdag 2014, Amersfoort
Source: Raymond Kurzweil, Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence
Disruptive change
Digitize
Disrupt
Demonetize
Democratize
Demonetization
Demonetization
The mobile being
The 1h06m
mobility urge
Mobile hours per day
The mobile being
Gross Domestic Product (GPD) per Capita US$ 1985
The car has become a computer on wheels
•
A modern car produces 100Tb data per hour
•
The new Mercedes S-Class has more ECU’s and 100x more lines of
software code compared to a Boeing 747
•
The vehicle starts outsmarting the driver. After ESP and ABS, more
and more functions are taken over by the vehicle
Cost of Mobility
Safety:
Environment:
Congestion:
1,8
0,3
0,9
- 2,3 % GDP
- 1,4 % GDP
- 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL:
3,0
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
- 4,9 % GDP
Cost of Mobility
Safety:
Environment:
Congestion:
1,8
0,3
0,9
- 2,3 % GDP
- 1,4 % GDP
- 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL:
3,0
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
- 4,9 % GDP
Stupid Mobility
Traffic Death in the Netherlands 1950-2010
• Relatively less cars are involved in fatal accidents
• Limited effectiveness of law enforcement: Less and less accidents
caused by traditional traffic offenses; driver distraction is the new
enemy
• Volvo: “no one will be killed or injured in a new Volvo by 2020”
Cost of Mobility
Safety:
Environment:
Congestion:
1,8
0,3
0,9
- 2,3 % GDP
- 1,4 % GDP
- 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL:
3,0
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
- 4,9 % GDP
Stupid Mobility
Emission legislation
0,40
PM (g/kWh)
Euro
1
– 97 %
0,30
Euro 1 1993
0,20
Euro 2 1996
Euro 3 2000
0,10
Euro 6
1
NOx (g/kWh)
Euro
2
Euro
3
Euro
5
2
Euro
4
3
Euro 4 2006
Euro 5 2009
Euro 6 2014
4
– 95 %
5
6
7
8
Cost of Mobility
Safety:
Environment:
Congestion:
1,8
0,3
0,9
- 2,3 % GDP
- 1,4 % GDP
- 1,2 % GDP
________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL:
3,0
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
- 4,9 % GDP
Stupid Mobility
Stupid Mobility
Stupid Mobility
Company Confidential
Traffic Management 2.0
• Traffic will be a self-steering system of well-informed
individuals. Governments will have to make a shift from
managing traffic to facilitating traffic.
• Traffic jams are a voluntary and predictable event.
• Cost of congestion decreases as drivers can use time effectively
• Automation will lead to increased use of roads
Cost of Mobility
Safety:
Environment:
Congestion:
1,8
0,3
0,9
- 2,3 % GDP  0% GDP
- 1,4 % GDP  0% GDP
- 1,2 % GDP  0% GDP
________________________________________________________________________________
TOTAL:
3,0
Source: KiM Mobiliteitsbalans 2009, CPB 2004, I&M 2008
- 4,9 % GDP  0% GDP
Governmental cost of modalities, €/1000pk, NL
Bron: CE 2014, Accenture
Transparent supply-demand information will
change mobility
Future roads
•
“Simplification” of road infrastructure:
– Refrain from Variable Message Signs, DRIPS, portals
– Return to elementary, two-dimensional roads with high tech focus basic
functions (friction, support, road marking, drainage, +)
– Less variety in traffic rules (variable speed, rush hour lanes, ++). The
limited effect will not justify the increased complexity and cost
•
•
•
Smart Mobility = Smart Cars on no-nonsense infrastructure
More road traffic, more payload
Create flexibility for the future, unlike examples below
34
•
•
Vehicles will solve
most of their own
problems
• Automation and demandsupply services will lead to
further growth of road
traffic
• Smart Mobility: Intelligent
mobility with intelligent
vehicles on elementary roads
The high-tech will be in the
asphalt, and driving on top of it

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