Document

Report
Updating Mongolia’s Energy Masterplan
Michael J. Emmerton, ADB Team Leader - 24 May 2013
Energy Masterplanning Challenges
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Large land area
Sparse population on the move
Minerals Extraction (mines)
Industrialization
• Natural Fibres
• Meat and milk
• Oil refining
• Minerals processing
• Industrial Parks (smelters)
Mongolia’s 15 Strategic Mineral Deposits
Mongolia’s Potential Electricity Intensification
Mongolia’s Potential Demand Growth
Combined Heat & Power Plants
Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are
inefficient
• Compared to modern plant
• Water consumption high
• Pollutants high
• Thermal Efficiency
• CHP4 - total thermal efficiency ~ 55%
• Power-to-Heat ratio ~0.29
CHP Cogeneration & Condensing Products
Myth no. 1 – Mongolia’s CHP Plants are
inefficient
• CHP4
• Total thermal efficiency – 55%
• New CHP in Mongolia
• Heat production efficiency – 89%
• Electric power efficiency – 46.7%
• Total thermal efficiency – 59.7%
• CHP in continuous cogeneration mode
• Total thermal efficiency – 89%
Taishir Hydropower, Gobi Altai – 11MW
Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to
serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand
• All previous studies have compared a
hydropower plant to a ‘hypothetic’ gas
turbine operating at time of peak load
• Cost estimates have been varied and
generally too low
Mongolia’s Expected HPP Capital Costs
Capacity
Production
MW
Project
Egiin
Sheuren
Burin
Artset
Orkhon
ErdeneBurin
Chargait
Maikhan
UB Pump S
GWh
Hydraulic
Head
Crest
Cost
Length (m)
$/kW
(m)
220
205
161
118
100
412
957
760
553
219
73
63
52
57
65
710
700 -1,200
1,700
1,400
495
2,827
2,969
3,251
3,362
3,353
64
243
85
-
4,154
15
12
100
68
46
(102)
24
417
224
570
no dam
-
3,716
1,772
2,473
Myth no. 2 – Hydropower is best choice to
serve Mongolia’s peak energy demand
• Design optimization shows that an HPP c
constructed on Sheuren river system has
optimal design, from cost and energy
perspective, if
• 390MW
• 1,260GWhr per annum
• Capacity factor ~ 55%
Sheuren HPP (300MW) Despatch
May 2022
Newcom Salkhit Windpark – 50MW
Myth no. 3 – Mongolia’s Wind & Solar
resources can be exploited to supply Asia
• Wind and solar PV suffers from
intermittency
• In Mongolia there is little wind in winter
months
• Across vast distances in Mongolia, and
with a small capacity system, controlling a
transmission grid with significant
intermittent power sources is a complex
undertaking
Diurnal Net Power Production (200MW Wind)
Economics of Energy Technology in Mongolia
Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia
• Heat Supply
• A new CHP plant is the most economical
heat supply for UB city
• Large Heat Only Boiler (HOB) is needed to
bridge from now to 2018
• Total investment in heat supply will be of the
order of $3.5B (money of the day basis).
• Half of the Aimag heating systems need
replacement within the next five years at a
cost of around $ 150m.
Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia
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Hydropower in 2022
Capacity 390MW, min 1,000GWh p.a.
Est. Cost $900m
Benefits
• Reduced operating costs
• More wind farms
• Provides opportunity for Mongolia to
develop the capability to control system
frequency across its vast transmission
network
Investment in Energy Supply in Mongolia
• T&D Networks
• Strengthen to reduce energy losses, improve
reliability
• Economic to supply mines up to 100MW if
within 300km of existing grid
• In time create a Mongolian super-grid at
400kV to support industrial centres
Investment in Transmission & Distribution
Support Clean Energy Research
• Under Mongolian conditions
• Renewable energy technologies - solar
heating schemes, geothermal schemes
• Involve the young and brightest engineers in
interesting projects that support Mongolia’s
future direction

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