The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC

Report
The National Earth System Prediction Capability
(National ESPC) Project
Daniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval Research
Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research
Fred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather Service
Dave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command
US THORPEX Legacy Planning Meeting
June 5, 2014
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National ESPC Overview
An interagency collaboration, initiated between Navy, Air Force and
NOAA and expanded to DoE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for
coordination of research to operations of a National earth system
analysis and prediction capability. The original project combined
global weather models in an operational synoptic multi-model
ensemble under NUOPC.
Seeks improved communication and synergy, for global prediction
of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to short-term
climate variability timescales.
•
Common prediction requirements and forecast model standards
that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration.
•
A national research agenda that will improve prediction across
scales from days to decades.
•
Cooperative focus projects to assess predictability of global
scale high impact environmental conditions to inform S&T, R&D,
and transition to operations.
•
Towards an multi-model ensemble based air-sea-land coupled
global prediction capability
The National Earth System Prediction Capability
http://espc.oar.noaa.gov/
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Challenges to Achieve a
Weather-Ready Nation
• Hail, Tornadoes, Tropical Storms & Hurricanes
• Winter Storms, Ice
• Extreme Heat and Cold
• Droughts and Floods
• Climate Adaptation
• Sea Level Rise
• Commerce and Navigation
• Aviation Transportation
• Food Security
• Air and Water Quality
• Ecosystem Health
• Private Sector and National Security
Home Field Emphasis
National Weather Enterprise
Public Safety and Economic Well-being of Nation
Public-Private Partnership
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Defense Department Challenges – A
Global Force for Good
Home Field Advantage
… at the Away Games
We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations – from the tropics to
the
poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the
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coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.4
From Sources of Predictability at Weather to Seasonal/
Climate Variability Timescales to Operational Prediction
through Global Coupled Model Ensembles
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NRC Study on Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
This study will identify:
• Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for advancing
predictive skill;
• Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into forecast
models;
• Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-ocean-land-sea
ice coupled models at S2S timescales (a few days to several weeks);
• Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S
forecasts;
• Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic
products; and
• Infrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and
communication, and visualization techniques needed to make high resolution
data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality.
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Need: Seamless Full Earth System
(or at least “lightly seamed”)
Partnerships:
ESPC
NOPP
HFIP
NMME
USGCRP
USCLIVAR
NUOPC
WWRP/WCRP
National ESPC
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Coupled Model Development
Navy ESPC Highlights - Infrastructure
•
Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled system
Define implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements,
cycling setup including DA
•“Operational Implementation Design” has details on data volumes, resources required, and
operational job distributions
•“In press” as Naval Research Laboratory Memorandum Report 7320--13-9498
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs.php search under author Metzger
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NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System
(NGGPS) Earth System Prediction R2O (draft)
Project Information and Highlights
Scope:
Improved Model Guidance: Coupled NWP to 30 days
1) Expand critical weather forecasting research to
operations (R2O)
2) Accelerate development and implementation of
improved global weather & ocean prediction models
3) Improve data assimilation techniques
4) Improve software architecture and system
engineering
5) Promote hurricane and other high impact forecast
models that meet societal requirements
Estimated Benefits:
1) Address growing service demands
2) Increased accuracy and lead time for high impact
weather forecasts
3) More reliable probabilistic forecasts
4) Effectively mitigate economic disruption from
hurricanes and other predictable “strong signal”
weather phenomena
The National Earth System Prediction Capability
Scheduling
Milestone
Date
Initiate Effort: Charter approved
02/2014
Planning Teams Organized
03/2014
Develop Spend Plan and Research
Priorities
06/2014
Develop Next Generation Global Prediction
System Implementation Plan
09/2014
Award External Grants
3/2015
Implement NEMS Physics Interoperability
Interface
9/2015
Demonstrate Coupled NGGPS
9/2015
Issues/Risks
1. Increased WCOSS Developmental
Computing Capacity Needed
2. Probabilistic operational skill at
longer lead times needs to be better
quantified and communicated.
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Air Force
Post-Processed Ensemble Products




Unlike Navy and NOAA, USAF does not develop
their own global model nor share their forecast
fields due to their licensing agreement. Instead
they provide joint NUOPC Ensemble processing.
Probability of
 Surface wind > 25, 35, 50 kts
 Lower and upper level moderate and severe
turbulence
 Icing at 500, 700, 850, 925 mb
 Surface viz < 1, 3, 5 nm
 Surface temp < 32, > 90
 Many Precip products and others
All provided to NCEP NOMADS servers as
operational fields, 6 hrs time steps out to 10 day
leads for all fields.
Plans for longer lead times and higher resolution in
2014/15.
The National Earth System Prediction Capability
Probability of Surface Level Reduced Visibility
Probability of Severe
Fighter Index of Thermal Stress (FITS)
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Collaborative Programs Across Scales:
Multi-model ensembles
Inter-agency Atmospheric Weather and Coupled Climate R2O
Ensembles
• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP: 1-7 days)
• Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA),
Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity
• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resources
• National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NAEFS/
NUOPC: 5-16 days)
•
•
•
•
•
Improving medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific events.
Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency missions and resources
Planned extension to 30 days (poss. 45 days)
Increasing resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015
Incorporating Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF)
• National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME: 3-9 months)
• Multi-model Climate Ensembles: more accurate than any one model
• Distributed Production: leverages multi-agency and
international computer infrastructure and investments (US, Canada)
• Currently a Phase II research project through FY14 for higher
resolution output suitable for sub-seasonal updates (Weeks 3-12).
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DRAFT
Interagency National ESPC Fielding Plan (2018)
Forecast Lead
0-7 Days
Forecast Lead
8-14 Days
Forecast Lead
15-30 Days
Forecast Lead
31 – 90 Days
Forecast Lead
3 – 18 Months
Annual to Decadal
National Global Prediction Needs
Boundary conditions for TC Track & Intensity, TC genesis, Hi
Res Littoral air/ocean operations, EM/EO/NBC prediction
Drought/Flood, Heat Wave/Freeze Prediction, Storm
Surge/Inundation/Erosion, Beach Warnings,
Safety/Emergency/Public Health Operations, Ship & Aircraft
Routing . . .
Strategic Planning, Environmental Stress Instability, Arctic
Sea Lanes, Ship and Land Transportation Infrastructure
Management, Agriculture/Fisheries Planning & Ecosystem
Management, Water Resource Management, Energy Sector
Planning . . .
Navy and DoD Capability
TC-COAMPS
Others
NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE/WW-3
NAVGEM Ensemble
NUOPC/NAEFS Ensemble
HFIP Ensemble
DOD Applications of
NOAA managed
Seasonal Ensemble
Prediction
Static
Climatology/Reanalysis
based on past
environment
“Climatology Products”
NUOPC Ensemble
NOAA Capability
HWRF
GFDL
GFS
GFS, HYCOM, WW-3
GEFS Ensemble
Multi-Model Ensemble
Climate Fcst System (CFSv2/3)
National Multi-Model Ensemble
(NMME)
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CFS-R, HURDAT,
etc.
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The call for Extended Range Products in the S2S Gap
(Federal/Operational, Credible, Reliable, Calibrated, and Probabilistic)
• When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses
toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely
sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963)
• Every day meteorologists predict next week’s weather…..Research is
underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on
an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for
example. --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991)
• Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be?
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