Presidential nominations and general elections

Report

Note the specialized vocabulary!
Difference between nominate and elect
 WHO nominates?
 Who decides how the nomination is going to take
place?


Answer: Parties nominate candidates AT
NATIONAL PARTY CONVENTIONS in
August of presidential election years.
What is a National Party Convention?
A meeting of delegates from each state
Democratic or Republican party.
*SPECIALIZED VOCABULARY.
Representatives to a party convention
are called DELEGATES.
Conventions are:
Big parties
With lots of balloons and confetti
On TV with speeches from candidates


The Democratic and Republican national
parties establish some guidelines.
Each state party decides how to satisfy those
guidelines and to choose its delegates.


(or WHETHER to satisfy those guidelines)
Three basic processes.

Presidential Primary:
A state-sponsored election to select delegates to national
nominating convention
 Can be open to any voter (“open”) or only to voters
registered in a party (“closed”)


State party convention


A closed meeting of elected state party committeemembers, who select national delegates
Caucus:
A meeting where any affiliated voter can come and select
individuals to serve as delegates in favor of a candidate.
 Neighborhood delegatescounty convention
 County delegatesstate convention
 State delegatesNational Party Convention Delegates





Note:
Those voters who choose to register with a
party and vote in a primary election are not
average voters.
They are more knowledgeable about politics
than average voters
They are more extreme in their opinions than
average voters
Date
State/Territory
Type
Delegates[
Rule
229]
Tue., January Iowa
nonbinding
3, 2012
caucus
Tue., January New Hampshire semi-closed
10, 2012
primary
Sat., January South Carolina
open
21, 2012
primary
Tue., January Florida
closed
31, 2012
primary
Sat., February Nevada
binding
4, 2012
caucus
Tue.,
Colorado
nonbinding
February 7,
caucus
2012
(closed)
Minnesota
Caucus
(open)
28
Proportional
12
Proportional
25
Winner Take All
50
Winner Take All
28
Convention
36
Convention
40
Convention
Tue.,
Arizona
February 28,
2012
Michigan
semi-closed 29
primary
open
30
primary
Sat., March 3, Washington
2012
binding
caucus
43
Tue., June 5, California
2012
top two
primary
172
WTA
District Winner Take All,
Statewide Proportional
District Winner Take All,
Statewide proportional
plus state convention
Date
State/Territory
Tue., January 3, 2012
Iowa
Tue., January 10, 2012
New Hampshire
Sat., January 21, 2012
South Carolina
Tue., January 31, 2012
Florida
Sat., February 4, 2012
Nevada
February 4–11, 2012
Maine
Tue., February 7, 2012
Colorado, Minnesota
Tue., February 28, 2012
Arizona, Michigan
Sat., March 3, 2012
Washington,
Tue., March 6, 2012
Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia
March 6–10, 2012
Wyoming
Tue., March 10, 2012
Kansas, Virgin Islands
Tue., March 13, 2012
Alabama, American Samoa, Hawaii, Mississippi
Sat., March 17, 2012
Missouri
Sun., March 18, 2012
Puerto Rico
Tue., March 20, 2012
Illinois
Sat., March 24, 2012
Louisiana
Tue., April 3, 2012
Maryland, Texas, Washington DC, Wisconsin
Tue., April 24, 2012
Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
Tue., May 8, 2012
Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia
Tue., May 15, 2012
Nebraska, Oregon
Tue., May 22, 2012
Arkansas, Kentucky
Tue., June 5, 2012
California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
Tue., June 26, 2012
Utah
To be announced
Guam
To be announced
Northern Mariana Islands

Early states get:

More time from the candidates
More promises
More campaign spending in-state
Their voters get to experience the campaign

Iowa and New Hampshire go first…



Population
% White
Median
income
% Farm
employmt
Iowa
New
Hampshire
National
average
2,929,324
(30th)
1,235,786
(41st)
281,421,906
Iowa
New
Hampshire
National
average
93.9%
96%
75.1%
Population
% White
Median
income
% Farm
employmt
Iowa
New
Hampshire
National
average
$39,469
$49,467
$41,994
Population
% White
Median
income
% Farm
employmt
Iowa
New
Hampshire
National
average
4.4%
.9%
1.9%
Population
% White
Median
income
% Farm
employmt

Early states (traditionally) have determined the
outcome due to…

Bandwagon effect (voters, donors, media)

Media coverage!!

Ability to raise more money if you do well early

So in states with later primaries, the race is often OVER

Does every state want those advantages?

Heck, yes!
Frontloading: the process by which states move their primaries earlier .
2008
Date
Jan wk1
Jan wk2
Jan wk3
IA, WY
Jan wk4
Feb wk1
SC, FL
Feb wk2
LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA,
HI, WI
NH,
MI, NV
AK, HI
ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, LA
MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK,
KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT
IA
NH
Feb wk3
Feb wk4
Mar wk1
1996
DE, AZ, ND, SD
OH, RI, TX, VT
CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND,
MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Depends on the state!
RETAIL POLITICS







Iowa/NH
Small, early states
Face-to-face campaigning
Shaking hands, kissing
babies
Making specific promises
to local communities
Cheap!
Time-intensive
WHOLESALE POLITICS







Big states
Too many voters to meet
Big rallies (goal is to get
free time on TV news)
PAID TV ADS
Expensive!
Doesn’t take as much time
(Get out the vote efforts
still need organization)

Ultimately, by convincing primary voters/party
activists



Convince them through:




That s/he is a good representative of the party
That s/he can win the general election
Campaigns (which cost money and time)
Party elite endorsements
Favorable media coverage ($$ again) (be the frontrunner!)
Advantages of “winning” the “invisible primary”




More big states and more states hold nomination
contests early in the year
Candidates need more money and organization to
compete
Media knows this
Many candidates weeded out before voters get a
chance to see them

5 candidates have dropped out due to poor
showings in early states


Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain,
John Huntsman, Rick Perry
Four major candidates remain




Newt Gingrich
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum “won” Iowa
(no delegates officially)
 13 delegates according to AP (Romney gets 12)


Mitt Romney won New Hampshire (7 delegates)


Newt Gingrich won South Carolina



Ron Paul got 3 delegates
23 delegates
Mitt Romney leads in Florida polls (votes on Jan.
31)
Next states are Nevada and Maine (Feb. 4)

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