Target Scenario

Report
SAE Government/Industry Meeting
Henry Kelly, Acting Assistant Secretary
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
U.S. Department of Energy
January 27, 2012
1 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov
The Cost of Oil is
More than Monetary
• Transportation is
responsible for 2/3 of
petroleum usage and 1/3
GHG emissions.
• Unites States spends
$1B per day to import oil.
• Global discovery of new
oil fields peaked in 1966.
• U.S. oil production
peaked in 1971.
Moving
Goods
Moving
People
Transportation Energy Energy
2 I Vehicle Technologies Program
World Oil Production
2005: 84.58 mbpd 2008: 85.37 mbpd
2006: 84.54 mbpd 2009: 84.24 mbpd
2007: 84.40 mbpd 2010: 86.82 mbpd
President calls out goal of 1 million PHEVs on
the road by 2015 in State of the Union address
Administration sets goal of reducing oil
imports by 1/3 by 2025
Vice
New CAFÉ standards will require cars and light
trucks to yield a combined fuel economy of 54.5
miles per gallon
3 I Vehicle Technologies Program
VTP Technology
Advancement Highlights
Lightweighting
Electrification Infrastructure
Supporting Research and Development of Materials
with a Goal to Reduce Chassis Weight by 50%
Recovery Act
Vehicle Electrification Efforts in
Deployment, Manufacturing, Power
Electronics and Electric Motors
•
•
Advanced Combustion Engines
Increased engine efficiency with
simultaneous emissions reduction show the
results of DOE R&D
•
The Recovery Act enabled the largest-ever
U.S. deployment of electric-drive vehicles
and charging infrastructure.
Installation of over 22,000 Level 2 charging
sites at residential, commercial, and public
locations and 350 (500VDC) Fast Chargers.
Collection of detailed operational data from
this charging infrastructure will allow future
improvements.
Advanced Batteries
DOE-Funded Technologies Move
to Commercial Applications
4 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov
2025 Highway Oil Consumption –
Target Scenario
Adv. powertrain
benefits apportioned
by subprogram:
(from GPRA12 analysis)
SI
HEV
PHEV/EV
HT
Transportation Cluster Benefits: can approach 100% of 2025 Administration target oil import reduction
5 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov
2025 Transportation GHG
Emissions – Target Scenario
6 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov
Lifecycle Vehicle Costs
Meeting Established DOE Goals
Ref SI
Adv SI
Adv CI
SI HEV
SI PHEV10
SI EREV40
FC HEV
BEV150
BEV300
BEV300
SI EREV40
2010
21-23
21-22
22-23
22-23
23-24
31-32
~29
~41
73-74
2015
25-26
23-24
23-24
21-22
22-24
~25
~24
28-29
44-45
2030
27-29
23-24
23-24
20-21
~19
19-20
~20
~17
20-21
BEV150
2010 SI
FC HEV
Adv CI
Adv SI
SI HEV
SI PHEV10
7 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov
Lifecycle Vehicle Costs
Meeting First Milestones
BEV150
Ref SI
Adv SI
Adv CI
SI HEV
SI PHEV10
SI EREV40
FC HEV
BEV150
BEV300
2010
21-23
22-23
22-24
23-24
25-26
36-37
~32
49-50
93-94
2015
25-26
24-26
25-26
24-25
24-25
29-30
~27
35-36
60-61
2030
27-29
25-26
25-26
23-24
22-23
24-25
~22
~24
~35
BEV300
SI EREV40
2010 SI
FC HEV
Adv CI
Adv SI
SI HEV
8 | Vehicle Technologies Program
SI PHEV10
eere.energy.gov
Heavy Truck Improvements
Moving
Goods
Percentage of fuel
used to move goods
vs people
Moving
People
Lifecycle Cost Comparison
0.7x baseline
Payback Period: 0.75-1.25 years
Breakeven diesel price: $3.50
$0.90
$0.80
Transmission
and drivetrain
efficiency
42%
95%
50%
97%
$0.70
$0.60
$0.50
Fuel Cost
Sensitivity
$0.40
$0.30
Fuel Cost
$0.20
$0.10
96%
Diesel ST
9 I Vehicle Technologies Program
87%
Non-Powerplant
$-
sel Baseline
Aero, rolling
resistance
efficiency
Powerplant
iesel ST HEV
Average engine
efficiency
SuperTruck Class 8 Vehicle
~10 mpdge
~40% WTW h
Petroleum reduction: 35%
Cost (2010$ per mile)
Conventional Class 8 Vehicle
~6.5 mpdge
~29% WTW h
Petroleum reduction: 0%
eere.energy.gov
Moving Forward
• Vehicle miles traveled
• Improving fuel
economy for legacy
fleets
• Off-road vehicles
• Natural gas
• Vehicles becoming
more intelligent
• Wide range of fuels
now available
10 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov
11 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov
Henry Kelly
Acting Assistant
Secretary
Energy Efficiency
and Renewable
Energy
U.S. Department of
Energy
www.energy.gov
12 | Vehicle Technologies Program
eere.energy.gov

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