PDF Size : 2661 kb - 10th World Islamic Economic Forum

Report
Global Market Potential for
Halal Vaccines
October 29, 2014
Dr. Tabassum Khan
1
Halal Vaccines- An Introduction
•
As the Muslim population continues to grow (estimated at 1.6 billion people
in 2014), demand for halal alternatives is increasing, driving investments in
this area. Therefore, it has become strategically essential to know about the
potential for halal vaccines covering financial, medical and social aspects.
•
The Million Dollar Question: Will Halal Vaccines have a negative impact on the
current immunization goals? Will the arrival of halal vaccines in immunization
coverage lead to disease prevention in larger segments of the populations
through increased acceptability?
2
Global Potential for Halal Vaccines
•
It is extremely important to comprehend that studying the potential for halal vaccines
does not undermine the importance of current vaccines nor does it entail that the
unavailability of halal vaccines should jeopardize the current immunization goals
•
On the contrary it creates a larger canvas where the current immunization coverage
could be improved by removing the mental blockade in certain segments of the
population
•
It should also be well understood that development of halal vaccines should not in any
way compromise on the quality and should not be inferior in any aspect to the existing
vaccines.
•
The development of halal vaccines should be based on two principles; first and
foremost they should exhibit at least non-inferiority to the existing vaccines and
secondly they should be acceptable from a social Muslim perspective.
3
Halal Pharmaceuticals: A Definition
• Halal pharmaceuticals are drug products that do not contain any parts or
products of animals that are regarded as non-halal by Sharia law (dogs, pigs,
and their descendants) or any parts or products of animals that are not
slaughtered according to Sharia law
• During their preparation, processing, handling, packaging, storage, and
distribution, halal pharmaceutical products need to be physically separated
from other pharmaceutical products that do not meet the requirements for
halal products, or any other items that have been regarded as non-halal by
Sharia law
• As with other pharmaceutical products, halal pharmaceuticals are also safe for
consumption, non-poisonous, non-intoxicating, and non-hazardous to health
4
according to prescribed dosage
Perceived definitions of Halal vaccines in key markets
Through interviews with a cross-section of the population in the Islamic world, where
they were asked how they perceive halal vaccines, the following points emerged:
•
•
•
•
•
•
In the current scenario, in some Muslim populated countries pork-free and alcohol free
vaccines are regarded as halal, though not certified as halal
In most Islamic countries, authorities did not have a clear cut definition of halal vaccines
based on Shariah law
Malaysia, and to a lesser extent India, had a more clear cut approach towards halal
certification of vaccines
It was a common perception that Islamic religious leaders would play a key role in defining
Halal vaccine standards
All the countries across APAC, North Africa, and GCC region follow similar definition for
halal vaccines in compliance with the Shariah law
Islamic leaders in the region play a key role in defining acceptance of a given vaccine as
halal
5
Perceived definition contd.
However according to experts in the field, any vaccine can be certified as
halal ONLY if it complies with following guidelines:
•
The vaccine does not contain any parts or products of animals that are nonhalal by Shariah law or any parts or products of animals that are not
slaughtered according to Shariah law
•
Entire production line and manufacturing facility, including devices, machines,
and processing aides deployed at a manufacturing facility must be used for
production of halal vaccines or halal pharmaceutical products only
•
Sufficient measures should be taken to prevent contamination of vaccine at all
stages of production
•
Processing, handling, packaging, storage, and transportation should be
physically separated from any other non-halal product or najs
6
Guidelines for Halal Pharmaceuticals
MS 2424
7
Global Pharmaceutical Market Sales and
Dynamics by Segment (2013)
Global pharmaceutical market
USD 1,000 B (+2%)
Non biotech
branded ethicals
Biotech
branded ethicals¹
Generics2
OTC
USD 412 B (-3%)
USD 180 B (+7%)
USD 283 B (+8%)
USD 125 B (+4%)
41%
18%
28%
13%
Branded ethical drugs: USD 592 B (59%) (-0%)
8
Global Vaccine Market Performance
Worldwide vaccines market 2013: USD ≈ 28 B
The vaccines market is characterized by:
Sanofi¹
Others2
18%
22%
Novartis 7%
19%
14%
Pfizer
Merck & Co¹







High degree of innovation
High upfront capital investments…
… creating a strong barrier to entry for new entrants
Complex manufacturing know-how
Biological competencies
Longer product lifespans than pharmaceuticals
Specific business models according to the types of
vaccines and the geographical regions served
 Long-standing relationships with governments and
20%
GSK
healthcare authorities
 Huge unmet needs, especially in emerging markets
 Limited number of strong players
% of total market in value
World Vaccine Market as a fraction of the Global Pharmaceutical Market: 2.8 percent
9
10
Global Potential for Halal Vaccines- Introduction
•
Malaysia is a global hub of halal industry and can become the world's first halal vaccine
hub
The potential for Halal vaccines
 It was estimated that Muslim consumers globally spent USD 70 billion on pharmaceuticals in 2012, which was
6.6% of global pharmaceuticals expenditure
 Vaccines can be controversial:
– Many Muslims refuse to vaccinate their children due to various reasons, including the belief of the presence
of porcine elements in the manufacturing process in some vaccines The meningitis vaccine is required for
hajj pilgrims but the halal status of the variants that are available in the market have been contested
– Etc.
 The Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) is emphasizing a push to make vaccines that conform to
religious dietary restrictions in an effort to increase their use and improve public health
 According to several specialists, Malaysia has potential to position itself as the leader in the production of halal
vaccines and medicines
•
Source: “State of the global Islamic economy”, Thomson Reuters, 2013 - www.onislam.net/ www.nst.com.my/
11
•
Most attractive countries
The first Muslim population is in India even if they represent a minority, while in Indonesia and
Pakistan, the 2nd and 3rd countries, they count for more than 80%
Muslim population - Top 20 countries
Total Muslim population 2014: 1.619 Billion
Muslim population (million)
250
217
Top 20 countries = 82% of Muslims
207
178
200
149
150
80
100
76
75
75
35
50
32
31
31
29
29
27
25
24
23
21
17
0
Pakistan
Nigeria
Iran
Turkey
Algeria
Morocco
Iraq
Sudan
China
Syria
Malaysia
90.4%
94.7%
47.9%
99.6%
98.6%
98.2%
99.9%
98.9%
71.4%
99.8%
33.8%
Uzbekistan
Yemen
96.4%
Afghanistan
Saudi
Arabia
86.1%
Bangladesh
Egypt
14.4%
96.5%
97.1%
99.0
1.8%
92.8%
61.4%
13.4%
12.7%
10.9%
9.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.1%
Source: "Muslim Population by Country". The Future of the Global Muslim Population. Pew Research
Center. Retrieved 22 December 2011.- "Region: Middle East-North Africa". The Future of the Global
Muslim Population. Pew Research Center. Retrieved 22 December 2011 - Pew Research Center 2014
Ethiopia
Indonesia
•
India
Muslim
percentage of
total
population
Percentage of
World Muslim
population
12
Most attractive countries
•
The Organization of the Islamic Conference counts 57 countries, mainly localized in the MiddleEast, Africa and South Asia and does not count India
Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Republic of Maldives
Republic of The Sudan*
Republic of Albania
Republic of The Gambia
People’s Democratic Republic of
Republic of Guinea
Algeria
Republic of Mali
Islamic Republic of
Mauritania
Republic of Suriname
Republic of Azerbaijan
Republic of Guinea-Bissau
Kingdom of Morocco
Republic of Tajikistan
Kingdom of Bahrain
Republic of Guyana
Republic of Mozambique
Republic of Togo
People’s Republic of Bangladesh Republic of Indonesia
Republic of Niger
Republic of Tunisia
Republic of Benin
Islamic Republic of Iran
Federal Republic of
Nigeria
Republic of Turkey
Brunei-Darussalam
Republic of Iraq
Sultanate of Oman
Republic of Turkmenistan
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
Islamic Republic of
Pakistan
Republic of Uganda
Burkina-Faso
Republic of Gabon
Syrian Arab Republic
Republic of Cameroon
Republic of Kazakhstan
State of Palestine
Republic of Chad
State of Kuwait
State of Qatar
State of The United Arab
Emirates
Republic of Uzbekistan
Union of The Comoros
Kyrgyz Republic
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Republic of Yemen
Republic of Côte d’Ivoire
Republic of Lebanon
Republic of Senegal
Great Socialist People’s Libyan
Republic of Sierra Leone
Arab Jamahiriya
Republic of Djibouti
Arab Republic of Egypt
Malaysia
•
*
Republic of Somalia
Source: http://www.oicexchanges.org/
•
* South Sudan not included
13
•
Most attractive countries
In 2012, the first country in terms of pharmaceutical Muslim consumers was Turkey, followed by
Saudi Arabia and Indonesia
Muslim pharmaceutical expenditures
Top 20 countries (2012)
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Iran
USA
Algeria
Russia
France
Germany
Pakistan
Egypt
India
United Kingdom
Bangladesh
United Arab Emirates
Morocco
Iraq
Malaysia
Kuwait
Jordan
Top 5 countries (2012)
10.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
3.6
3.1
2.6
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.9
0
2
4
6
USD B
5
1
2
4
3
8
10
12
•
Source: “State of the global Islamic economy”, Thomson Reuters, 2013
14
•
Most attractive countries
Turkey is the only country belonging to both top 5 medicines importers and top 5 exporters to the
Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries
Top medicines importers and exporters to the OIC countries
Top 5 countries (2012)
Top importing countries
USD B
1
2
3
4
5
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
UAE
Egypt
4.0
3.6
2.2
1.7
1.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
2
3
4
5
Turkey
Indonesia
Egypt
Jordan
Malaysia
0.7
Source: State of the Global Islamic Economy Report 2013
4
5/ 2 4
2
5
2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
1
3
Top exporting countries
USD B
0
•
1
0.4
0.6
0.8
15
Most attractive countries
•
UNICEF procures vaccines and immunization supplies on behalf of around 100 countries annually
Overview of UNICEF procurement
Immunization Supplies
 Vaccines: BCG , DTP, TT/Td/DT,
Measles containing, OPV, HepB,
YF, DTP-HepB, DTP-HepB/Hib,
DTP/Hib, Hib, MR, Meningitis,
MMR, PCV, RV, HPV, IPV, etc.
 Safe Injection equipment
 Cold Chain Equipment
2012
Vaccines Supplies
 USD 1,053m
 1.89 B doses
 1,946 shipments
•
Source: UNICEF Procurement Advancements, October 2013
Countries UNICEF procures on
behalf of
Full schedule
Partial schedule
16
•
Most attractive countries
34 OIC countries are eligible for GAVI or UNICEF or both supports; the majority of these counties are
located on the African continent
Overview of both UNICEF / GAVI and OIC countries
Number of countries eligible for
GAVI and/or UNICEF support




South America: 1 country
Africa: 24 countries
Middle-east: 7 countries
Asia: 2 countries
OIC + UNICEF full or
partial schedule
procurement
OIC + eligible for GAVI
support
OIC + UNICEF + GAVI
support
•
Sources: UNICEF, GAVI, OIC
17
•
Most attractive countries
Indonesia is a secular state with a high percentage of Muslims; it’s the 2nd biggest market in terms of
target population but suffers from low immunization coverage
Top 10 most attractive countries for halal vaccines (2/10)
Place of Islam
Indonesia
Islamic republic
State religion
Secular state
Population data
Immunization data
 Total population (2015):
Immunization coverage (2012)
Corresponding population /
Immunization schedules
255 708 000
year (2015)
 BCG: 1 month (2012)
Tetanus 2nd dose
85%
 Muslim population (2015):
220 164 588 (86.1%)
 DT: 6 years
Polio 3rd dose
69%
 Births / year (2012):
3 267 840 hab.
MCV
80%
 DTwPHep: 2, 3, 4 months
4 736 000
3 788 800 hab.
 Surviving infants (2012):
Hib 3rd dose
 Hep. B: 0-7 days
4 614 000
 Infants mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
HepB 3rd dose
64%
 Polio: 2, 3, 4 months
2012):
3 031 041 hab.
26
DTP 3rd dose
64%
 Oral polio: 1, 2, 3, 4 months
3 031 041 hab.
 Under-five mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):
DTP 1st dose
91%
 Measles: 9 month, 6 years
4 309 760 hab.
31
BCG
81%
 Gross national income/capita (USD, 2012):
3 836 160 hab.
 Tetanus, diphteria: 7-8 years
4 810
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
 Vitamin A: 6-59 months
 Percentage of routine EPI¹ vaccines financed
by government (2012):
No
data Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division – WHO
•
•
¹Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio, measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever
immunization summary, 2014 edition – PEW Research on religion and public life – Smart Pharma
Consulting analyses
in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib) conjugate vaccine in countries with high burden
of disease
18
•
Most attractive countries
The Islamic republic of Pakistan is an important market in terms of target population but has low
immunization coverage and is relatively poor
Top 10 most attractive countries for halal vaccines (3/10)
Place of Islam
Pakistan
Islamic republic
State religion
Population data
 Total population (2015):
Immunization coverage (2012)
188 144 000
Tetanus 2nd dose
75%
 Muslim population (2015):
181 370 816 (96.4%)
Polio 3rd dose
75%
 Births / year (2012):
4 604 000
MCV
83%
 Surviving infants (2012):
Hib 3rd dose
81%
4 301 000
 Infants mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
HepB 3rd dose
81%
2012):
69
DTP 3rd dose
81%
 Under-five mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):
DTP 1st dose
88%
86
BCG
87%
 Gross national income/capita (USD, 2012):
3 030
0% 20% 40% 60%
 Percentage of routine EPI¹ vaccines financed
by government (2012):
No
data Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division – WHO
•
•
immunization summary, 2014 edition – PEW Research on religion and public life – Smart Pharma
Consulting analyses
Secular state
Immunization data
Corresponding population /
Immunization schedules
year (2015)
(2012)
 BCG: birth
3 453 000 hab.
3 453 000 hab.
 DT: 6 years
3 821 320 hab.
 DTwPHibHep: 6, 10, 14 weeks
3 729 240 hab.
 Measles: 9, 15 months
3 729 240 hab.
3 729 240 hab.
4 051 520 hab.
4 005 480 hab.
 Oral polio: birth, 6, 10, 14 weeks
 Pneumo. conjugate: 6, 10, 14 weeks
 Tetanus: 1st contact or pregnancy, +1
month, +6 months, +1 year, +1 year
80% 100%
¹ Expanded Program on Immunization: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio,
measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib)
conjugate vaccine in countries with high burden of disease
19
•
Most attractive countries
Malaysia’s high vaccination coverage and extensive immunization schedule make this relatively rich
country an attractive market for halal vaccines
20th most attractive country for halal vaccines - Malaysia
Place of Islam
Malaysia
Islamic republic
State religion
Population data
 Total population (2015):
Immunization coverage (2012)
30 651 000
Tetanus 2nd dose
90%
 Muslim population (2015):
18 819 714 (61.4%)
Polio 3rd dose
99%
 Births / year (2012):
516 000
MCV
95%
 Surviving infants (2012):
Hib 3rd dose
99%
514 000
 Infants mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
HepB 3rd dose
98%
2012):
7
DTP 3rd dose
99%
 Under-five mortality rate (per 1000 live birth,
2012):
DTP 1st dose
99%
9
BCG
99%
 Gross national income/capita (USD, 2012):
16 530
0% 20% 40% 60%
 Percentage of routine EPI¹ vaccines financed
by government (2012):
No
data Sources: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division – WHO
•
•
immunization summary, 2014 edition – PEW Research on religion and public life – Smart Pharma
Consulting analyses
Secular state
Immunization data
Corresponding population /
year (2015)
510 840 hab.
490 200 hab.
510 840 hab.
505 680 hab.
510 840 hab.
510 840 hab.
510 840 hab.
80% 100%
Immunization schedules
(2012)
 BCG: birth
 DT: 7 years
 DTwPHibPolio: 2, 3, 5, 18 months
 Hep. B: birth, 1, 6 month, health
workers
 HPV: 13 years
 Jap. E: 9, 10, 18 months, 5, 8, 11
years
 Measles: 6 months
 MMR: 1 year
 MR: 7 years
 Oral polio: 7 years
 Tdap: 15 years
 Tetanus: 15 years, pregnancy
 Typhoid: food handlers
 Yellow fever: travelers to endemic
countries
¹ Expanded Program on Immunization: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio,
measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib)
conjugate vaccine in countries with high burden of disease
20
•
Key success factors on the halal vaccines market
Pharmaceutical companies involved in halal medicines and/or vaccines should help the public
understand that halal products are not necessarily just food and drinks
Drivers and limiters in the Halal pharmaceutical market
DRIVERS
 Increasing population of Muslims
 Rising income among Muslim consumers
 Increasing demand for Halal pharmaceuticals and vaccines, thus,
huge opportunities for global suppliers as well as niche producers in
the pharmaceutical value chain (e.g. companies that produce halal
adjuvants)
 OIC exporters/producers: many large pharmaceutical companies (eg.
Julphar, Eczacıbaşı’s, Hikma, Kalbe Farma, etc.) from OIC countries
have the infrastructure and resources to boost the market
 Both authorities and NGOs are working to deliver universal access to
immunization
LIMITERS
 Regulations/certifications:
– Difference in certification standards and regulations (e.g. in Indonesia,
making mandatory halal regulations for pharmaceuticals is getting
industry pushback)
– Certification process and standard may differ from country to country
and one certification body to another
 Long product development cycles
 Controversy on vaccine usage that might be palliated through education,
transparency and regulation/compliance
 Lack of education and awareness: majority of the consumers (especially in
Muslim majority markets) are ambivalent or unaware of non-allowed
ingredients in medicine or cosmetics
 Emerging competition on the halal vaccines market : Novartis MenACWY135 is the first quadrivalent conjugate vaccine and Global Vacc alshifa’s HiB vaccine have received a halal certification
•
Source: “State of the global Islamic economy”, Thomson Reuters, 2013 - Factors driving halal pharma
market, Ecron Acunova – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
21
•
Market sales potential by 2030
Expanded Program on Immunization, pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines account for USD 14.9 B
and 62% of the vaccines market among the top 4 companies
Methodology – Analyzed vaccines
Non-WHO EPI or
pneumococcal or
rotavirus
USD 5 176 M
(38%)
WHO EPI +
pneumococcal +
rotavirus
USD 12 406 M
(62%)
Estimated split after the 2013 sales of top
4 manufacturers
•







Meningococcal vaccines
Influenza vaccines
Human papillomavirus vaccines
Herpes zoster vaccines
Adult booster vaccines
Travel or endemics vaccines
Others







Measles containing vaccines
Hepatitis B vaccines
EPI
DTP vaccines
Hib vaccines
BCG vaccines
Pneumococcal vaccines
Rotavirus vaccines
Value of the global market by
vaccine category in 2013
Value of the global market by
vaccine category in 2030
Non-EPI & non-pneumococcal
& non-rotavirus vaccines global
market:
USD 10.5 B
Non-EPI & non-pneumococcal
& non-rotavirus vaccines global
market:
USD 30.8 B
EPI + pneumococcal + rotavirus
vaccines global market:
USD 17.5 B
EPI + pneumococcal + rotavirus
vaccines global market:
USD 50.2 B
Total = USD 28 B
Total = USD 81 B
Analyzed vaccines
Sources: Annual reports 2013 – Evaluate Pharma World Preview 2018 (2013) – Smart Pharma
Consulting analyses
•
EPI: Expanded Program on Immunization: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP), oral polio,
measles, hepatitis B (HepB), yellow fever in countries endemic for the disease, and Haemophilus influenzae meningitis (Hib) conjugate
vaccine in countries with high burden of disease
22
•
Market sales potential by 2030
The estimate of the number of doses per year takes into account the % of newborn Muslims p.a.,
the immunization coverage and the received number of doses
Methodology – Number of doses
Number of Muslim infants
1000
820
Immunization
coverage
40
Total muslim Top 20
Number of
population countries in Muslim new
terms of
born per
muslim
year
population
•
for each vaccine in
each country
(according to WHO
data)
Sources: PEW research – United Nations – UNICEF/WHO immunization summary report 2014 – WHO
immunization coverage – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
Recommended
number of doses
for each vaccine in
each country
(according to
UNICEF & WHO
data)
Potential number
of doses per year of
halal vaccines in the
top 20 Muslim
countries
23
Market sales potential by 2030
•
Three price categories were chosen to cover the analyzed countries and penetrations rates have been set
according to the place of Islam and the % of Muslim in the country
Methodology – Prices & penetration rates
Prices
Penetration rates
Place of Islam in the country
•
State religion
Low
Very low
penetration
N/A
N/A
Medium
Medium
Low
penetration
Medium
penetration
N/A
Medium
penetration
High
penetration
Very high
penetration
High
UNICEF / GAVI
procurement prices
PAHO procurement
prices + 11%¹
European prices based
on the French case
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
India
Nigeria
Pakistan
Uzbekistan
Yemen
Algeria
China
Egypt
Indonesia
Iraq
Iran
Malaysia
Morocco
Sudan
Syria
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Sources: World Bank – GAVI – PAHO – GERS – Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
% of Muslim in the country
Low
Secular
country
High
Pharmaceutical expenditures per capita
•
Islamic
republic
¹ According to PAHO revolving fund director "A country that purchases through the Revolving Fund can
save at least 11% in comparison to direct purchases from the producers”
24
Market sales potential by 2030
•
In 2020, 2 years after the estimated arrival of the first halal vaccines, the considered market is
expected to be worth USD 96 million in the top 20 Muslim countries
Halal vaccines market in the top 20 Muslim countries - 2020
Halal vaccines market in selected countries: USD ≈ 96 M
Market in USD, million
26
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
China
4
5
Uzbekistan
7
Syria
10
10
Ethiopia
15
Malaysia
20
20
Vaccines considered
BCG
DTP & combinations
Hepatitis B & combinations
Haemophilus influenzae & combinations
Measles containing vaccines
Polio
Pneumococcal
Rotavirus
India








25
Nigeria
30
•
Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
Algeria
Yemen
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Sudan
Iran
Morocco
Indonesia
Egypt
Iraq
Pakistan
Saudi
Arabia
Turkey
0
25
•
Market sales potential by 2030
In 2030, the considered halal vaccines market is estimated to be worth USD 1.1 billion in the top 20
countries in terms of Muslim population
Halal vaccines market in the top 20 Muslim countries - 2020
Halal vaccines market in selected countries: USD ≈ 1,144 M
Market in USD, million
111
100
49
50
48
46
41
36
35
30
29
24
21
14
11
10
9
7
1
China
122
Uzbekistan
150
Syria
200
Vaccines considered
BCG
DTP & combinations
Hepatitis B & combinations
Haemophilus influenzae & combinations
Measles containing vaccines
Polio
Pneumococcal
Rotavirus
Ethiopia








216
Malaysia
250
India
300
284
•
Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
Algeria
Nigeria
Afghanistan
Yemen
Bangladesh
Iran
Sudan
Morocco
Indonesia
Egypt
Iraq
Pakistan
Saudi
Arabia
Turkey
0
26
•
Market sales potential by 2030
The two countries (Turkey & Saudi Arabia) showing the highest pharmaceutical expenditures count
for almost half of the selected halal vaccines market in 2030
Halal vaccines market in the top 20 Muslim countries – 2020 / 2030
1,400
USD 1 144 m
Market in
USD m
1,200
1,000
High pharmaceutical expenditures
Middle pharmaceutical expenditures
Low pharmaceutical expenditures
501
800
600
400
USD 96 M
373
200
46
0
21
270
29
2020
2030
•
Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
27
Market sales potential by 2030
•
The extrapolated halal vaccines market could reach USD 188 m in 2020 and USD 2.2 B in 2030
Extrapolated halal vaccines market – 2020 / 2030
Market in USD m
2,500
 Considering that the top 20 countries analyzed account for
82% of the Muslims, the halal market among the total
Muslim population is estimated to be worth:
2,000
1,500
2,249
1,000
USD 116 m
USD 1 395 m
 Considering that the analyzed vaccines account for 62% of
USD 188 m
188
2020
•
2030
the total vaccines market, the total halal vaccines market
is worth: 2020
2030
500
0
2020
Sources: Smart Pharma Consulting analyses
USD 2 249 m
2030
28
Conclusion
•
There is a huge opportunity as the halal vaccines market could reach 2.2 B in 2030 but they would
face several hurdles
Key Learning & Recommendations
 There is an opportunity to develop halal vaccines as the Muslim population is increasing and so is
the demand for halal pharmaceuticals, including vaccines
 Both authorities and NGOs are working to deliver universal access to immunization and the halal
vaccine could touch population that are under vaccinated or not vaccinated
 In 2030, the Halal market could reach approximately USD 2.2 billion, representing a niche on the
global preventive vaccines market (approximately 3%) estimated at USD 84 billion
•
Source: Smart Pharma Consulting
29
Conclusion
•
There is a huge opportunity as the halal vaccines market could reach 2.2 B in 2030 but they would
face several hurdles
Key Learning & Recommendations
 Nevertheless, there would be several hurdles:
–
–
–
–
In terms of regulations and certifications complexity
Due to the long cycle development (10-15 years)
Due to production and distribution constraints
And high associated costs (investment required to launch a new vaccine is approximately USD 700
million)
30

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