Presentation of discussant Dr Andrei Belyi

Report
Discussion points,
EU-Russia institutional aspects
Andrei V Belyi
CEURUS, University of Tartu, Estonia
CEPMLP, University of Dundee, UK
EU-Russia interdependence
Positive
interdependence:
• Increasing trade volumes
• Mutual vulnerabilities to international
markets (i.e. Eurozone crisis,
internationalization of gas markets)
• Best practice transfer (energy
efficiency and renewable energy
promotion)
Ground for cooperation
And institutional
development
Negative
interdependence:
• Mostly covering gas markets,
following gas transit conflict and third
energy package adoption
• Competition for Ukraine especially
since EnCT accession
• Controversies surrounding the Energy
Charter
Ground for ‘deinstitutionalization’
Increased political risks
Institutional responses: gas
Energy
Charter
Still the most
overarching legal
framework
But how to make it
accepted by RF and
other producing
states?
EU-Russia
Energy
Dialogue
Political discourses
are dominating over
expert cooperation
Gas Advisory Council
focuses on ‘technical’
discussion, but
political trust needed
Facing gas
markets
EU to force markets
even where the
competition does not
have a ground?
Russia to rely over
inefficient Gazprom?
Main political concerns:
EU
RF
• Main concern: Gazprom’s export
monopoly and price indexation
• Integration of Ukraine into EnCT
also to reinforce transit security
• ECT is not acceptable if transit
issues are not clarified (incl dispute
settlement); REIO clause is the key
barrier
• EU markets bring new
uncertainties in capacity markets
Going beyond negative
interdependence ?
EU
RF
• More flexible position on REIO ?
• Less rigid attitude towards
EnCT?
• Need to face market realities
(i.e. oil indexation is outdated)
• Export monopoly: barrier and
not a solution for the energy
sector modernization?
Concluding remarks
Institutional responses are insufficient because negative interdependence
prevails in gas
EU’s market development brings new uncertainties for post-command
economies, incling EnCT; REIO clause in ECT rather complicates the
multilateralism
Russia’s reliance on outdated institutional structures increases a distrust
Is positive interdependence matter of long term political will?

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