"SmartDrivingCars: Making them Happen" Kornhauser

Report
Opportunity for
FMERA & Princeton University
to Create a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of SmartDrivingCars
by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
Princeton University
&
CARTS
Consortium for Autonomous Roadways
&
Transit Systems
Presented at
Fort Monmouth, NJ
CARTS
April 22, 2014
Important Elements
of
Quality of Life
CARTS
Quality of Life 101: Important Elements
• Environment
– Clean air, water, …
• Employment
– “High Quality” Jobs
– Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety
• Mobility
– Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience, …
• Main Premise:
– Promoting the Adoption of Smart Driving Technology:
• Creates “High Quality” Jobs, Improves Personal Safety
• Improves Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience,
• Improves the Environment
…
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Where are We with Mobility?
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We Love the Freedom & Mobility
But…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers
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Highway Sign-A-Long Buttercup Edition
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/HIGHWAY_SING-A-LONG_%20BuildMeUpButtercup.mp4
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Txtng while driving is out of control…
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TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention
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http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdf
“In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral
error caused or contributed to the crash”
In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%)
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Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012
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Response is Laudable
Kirkland, WA
April 3: US DOT Launches First-Ever National Distracted Driving Enforcement and Advertising Campaign
But…
Not
Likely
to
be
Effective
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We really Need to get to
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What About Automation?
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Up to today:
Primarily concerned with safety standards associated with
Crash Mitigation
(air bags, seat belts, crash worthiness, …)
Click image to view video
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Even though Safety Doesn’t Sell,
Some Automakers are Leading the Way
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4
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Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to
Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation
Level 0 (No automation)
SmartDrivingCars, Buses & Trucks
The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times.
Level 1 (Function-specific automation)
The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving
or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control
Level 2 (Combined function automation)
Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane
centering) in certain driving situations.
Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation.
Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of
the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering
Level 3 (Limited self-driving)
Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions.
Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control.
Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car
Level 4 (Full self-driving automation)
Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip.
The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle
may operate while unoccupied. Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system
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Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
What the Levels Deliver:
Levels 1 -> 3: Increased Safety, Comfort & Convenience
Level 4 (Driverless Opportunity) : Efficiency, Equity
Revolutionizes “Mass Transit” by enabling the
provision of mobility without incurring a Labor Cost
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Where are we Now with Automated Vehicles?
Tesla Car Transporter
Rio Tinto Automated Truck
Rio Tinto Automated Train
Tampa Airport 1st APM 1971
Automated Guided Vehicles
Copenhagen Metro
Elevator
Mercedes Intelligent Drive
Rivium 2006 ->
Milton Keynes, UK
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CityMobil2
Heathrow PodCar
Volvo Truck
Aichi, Japan, 2005 Expo
Where Are We Now?
Available in ShowRooms for Consumers
“Level 2- Combined Automation wit Constant Vigilance ”
CARTS
Click images to view videos
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/2014%20E-Class%20Commercial%20-%20Hard%20to%20Imagine%20--%20Mercedes-Benz.mp4
BAS-Plus
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http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/MB_Commercial_Gr
im_Reaper.mp4
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/MB_Clown_Commercial.mp4
Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  )
Volvo Truck Emergency braking
Intelligent Drive (active steering  )
History and Development of
DISTRONIC:
Price reduction, intelligent packaging and availability cross-carline
MY 2000
Introduce DISTRONIC
Adaptive Cruise Control
In package for +$3,700
Only available on S/CL
MY 2006 - Current
MY 2014 - Future
DISTRONIC PLUS
Autonomous Braking Intervention
In “Driver Assistance Package” with Blind Spot
Assist/Lane Keeping Assist $2,950
Available Cross-Carline on almost every model
Enhancements to Driver Asst. Package
•Steering Assist
•BAS with Cross-Traffic Assist
•PRE-SAFE Brake with Pedestrian Detection
•PRE-SAFE PLUS – protection during rear
collisions
In “Driver Assistance Package” with Blind Spot
Assist/Lane Keeping Assist +$2,800
Only available on S/E
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Expected Safety Implications of “Google Cars”
• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research
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Expected Safety Implications of “Google Cars”
• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
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Expected Safety Implications of “Google Cars”
• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
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Near Term Opportunities
DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research
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$475 are Pass-through Dollars
Expected Safety Implications of “Google Cars”
$475/yr are “Pass-through” Dollars
Assume: Emergence of “Price Leaders”
$450/yr Discount for Me
$25/yr for Flo or the Gecko or ???
To enhance “Combined Ratio”
Could Discount Finance:
??
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Could “Pass-through” Finance
Mercedes Intelligent Drive??
(Available in ‘14 S-Class)
May well Deliver 2/3rds the safety of Google Car
$475 Pass-through becomes: $320
$20/yr for Flo or the Gecko
$300/yr to Mercedes
Therefore: I get Intelligent Drive for Free (thank you Google) !! Plus:
•Prob. of my car killing me is reduced factor: 2/3*.81= 0.54 (half)
•Prob. of my car injuring me is reduced factor: 2/3*.65= 0.44
•I “Save” my expected “deductible self-insurance”: $247/yr
•I have more Comfort
•I have more Convenience
•I have “Anxiety” relief
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What a great Business Case! I’m a Buyer!
Alain’s Car Insurance on ‘14 S-Class
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1UHu3m17sw
Annual Comprehensive:
$2,000/yr (I walk to work)
Assume:
10% Profit ($200)
10% Operating Costs ($200)
80% Expected Liability Exposure ($1,600)
“997 package has to
reduce my Expected
Liability Exposure by 50%
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“997 package has to reduce my Expected
Liability Exposure by 50% ($800)
Why New Jersey?
• Observation: New Jersey is the home of NAHQ of:
– Mercedes, BMW & Subaru
• Action Item:
– Create an environment that is conducive for these
companies (and others) to successfully
enhance, test and accelerate the adoption
of SmartDrivingCars
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What About Buses?
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Use Autonomous Collision
Avoidance Technology to Address a
BIG CURRENT Transit Problem
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Good News! Travel by Bus is getting safer!
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Good News! Injuries have been trending down!
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Terrible News! Claims are going through the
roof!
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Casualty and Liability Claims are a
Huge Drain on the Industry
• For the 10 year period 2002-2011, more than
$4.1 Billion was spent on casualty and
liability claims
• For many self-insured transit agencies these
expenses are direct “out-of-pocket”
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2011 Nationwide
Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
Source FTA NTD
Casualty and
Liability
Amount
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Vehiclerelated
$483,076,010.
Total Buses
59,871
Sub-Total Casualty and
Liability Amount Per Bus
$8,069/Bus/Year
The Cost of Installing an
Active Collision Avoidance System
on a Bus Could be Recovered
in as Little as One Year
Through Reductions in
Casualty and Liability Claims
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Why New Jersey?
• Observation: In 2 Years, NJ Transit will initiate a
new Bus Replacement Cycle (That will extend for about 15 years)
• Action Item:
– Ensure that the Procurement Specifications include
“Level 2” SmartDriving Technologies
CARTS
Near-term Opportunity for a Substantive
Extension of Autonomous Transit
• Specific: General Mobility for Fort Monmouth Redevelopment
– Currently: Decommissioned Ft. Monmouth is vacant .
•
•
•
•
•
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Ft. Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority (FMERA) is redeveloping the 3 sq. mile “city”
Focus is on attracting high-tech industry
The “Fort” needs a mobility system.
FMERA is receptive to incorporating an innovative mobility system
Because it is being redeveloped as a “new town” it can accommodate itself to be an ideal site for testing
more advanced driverless systems.
The Initial Project:
Princeton University
(with American Public Transit Association (APTA), Greater Cleveland Transit, and
insurance pools from WA, CA, OH & VA)
Pending $5M Grant from
Federal Transit Administration
Focused on
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of
SmartDriving Technology to Buses
CARTS
Where Are We Committed to Go?
“Level 4 Driverless in Mixed Environment ”
Google has stated* that by 2018 Google will make available
to the public “Level 4” technology in a mixed environment
*Anthony Levandowski reaffirmed last week @ Stanford TRB Workshop Sergie Brin’s statement last year.
CARTS
Why Fort Monmouth?
• Observation: Ft Monmouth may well be one of
the most hospitable sites for Google, and others
to implement their intentions.
• Action Item:
– Create a Testing & Certification Environment for use
by Google and others to transition their products
from Research to Full Commercialization
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Why New Jersey?
• Observation: “Level 4” may well be upon us in
less than 5 years and our planning, operational
and maintenance entities are largely unaware
• Action Item: Ensure that NJTPA, DVRPC, PANYNJ,
DRPA, NJTP, NJDoT, NJTransit, etc. are all aligned
to the Opportunities and Challenges associated
with the rapid evolution of these technologies
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The Ask:
FMERA & Princeton University
Work Together to Create a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of SmartDrivingCars
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The Team
The “Owners”
FMERA & Princeton University
The “Coaching Staff”
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Consortium for Autonomous Roadways & Transit Systems
The “Players”
Automakers
Suppliers
Facilitators
Insurance
Public Sector
Mercedes Benz
Continental
Bertram Capital
NJ Manufacturers
NJ DoT
BMW
Bosch
Verizon
Ins. Inst. for Hwy Safety
NJ Transit
Subaru
Delphi
AT&T
State Farm
PA NYNJ
Volvo
Texas Instrument
Google
Progressive
NJTPA
Ford
autonomouStuff
VisLab
Munich Re
FHWA
The “Venue”
The McAfee Center and The Fort
CARTS
Opportunity for
&
to Create a World-class Center for
Research, Certification and Commercialization
of SmartDrivingCars
by
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
Princeton University
&
CARTS
Consortium for Autonomous Roadways
&
Transit Systems
Presented at
Fort Monmouth, NJ
CARTS
April 22, 2014
Discussion!
Thank You
alaink@princeton.edu
www.SmartDrivingCar.com
CARTS
Where Are We Now?
R&D
“Level 3 Semi Self-Driving Automation”
CARTS
Has drive ~ 500,000 miles with “Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation”
But…Hardware too expensive and Reliance on 3D Google Maps is “non-elegant”
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE
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Click image to view video
Most impressive self-driving car video to date (7/31/13)
(See driverless finish at end of video)
And Today…
• Masdar & Heathrow are operational
Video
> 1M Driverless VMT
Zero accidents
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APM
Automated People Movers
Now exist in essentially every Major Airport
and a growing number of Driverless Metros
Beijing
Milan
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Paris
Personal Rapid Transit: Morgantown (1975 - )
Today…
Remains a critical mobility system & expansion being planned
> 25M Driverless VMT
Zero serious accidents
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• Autonomous Buses at La Rochelle & CityMobile2
(CyberCars/Cybus/INRIA) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72-PlSFwP5Y
– Simple virtual non-exclusive roadway
• Virtual vehicle-based longitudinal (collision avoidance) and
lateral (lane keeping) systems
This is actually “Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation”
Very Slow Speed (~ 10 mph); “Limited Pedestrian Environment”
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– Driverless Trucks in Australian & Chilean Mines
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0RCSX95QmE
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