Increase in temperature

Report
Climate Change
Sensitization
Session
Brazilian Coffee Sector
Objectives of the day
• To learn about the climate change
phenomenon
• To know about climate change impacts on
coffee production and impacts of coffee
production on climate change
• To understand the concepts of climate change
adaptation and mitigation
• To know some adaptation options and some
mitigation measures
Climate Change and
the Brazilian Coffee
Sector
An Introduction
Climate Change and the Brazilian
Coffee Sector
Key Questions:
• What is climate change?
• Which impacts has climate change caused?
• What are the impacts on coffee?
• What are expected impacts of climate change
for Brazil?
• What are the consequences for Brazilian
coffee production?
What is climate change?
Definition:
Any significant change in measures of climate,
such as temperature or precipitation, lasting
for an extended period of time, typically
decades (official IPCC definition)
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
GHG
Which impacts has climate change
caused?
Source: Google Images
Which impacts has climate change
caused?
Seco Glacier, Argentina,
1953 – 2009
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Increase in global temperature
Changes in precipitation patterns
More extreme weather events
Warming of poles and loss of sea
ice rising sea levels
• Warming of oceans
• Melting of glaciers
Source: Google Images
What are impacts on agriculture?
Source: FAO 1997
What are perceived impacts of
coffee producers?
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Increase in pests and diseases
Food shortage; mal nutrition
Water scarcity
Extended drought periods
Drying of springs and streams
Degraded soils / landslides
Increase in floods
Poor yields increase in migration
What are impacts on coffee?
Increase in temperature:
• Reduction of photosynthesis
• Outer shell sticking to bean, preventing ripening
• Changes in pest and disease incidents
• Droughts
erosion
loss of soil fertility
Change in precipitations patterns / extreme weather events:
• Damages the beans and affects growth
• Irregular precipitation patterns during the harvest season makes the
drying process more difficult, altering the quality of the product
• Strong precipitation
landslides
loss of plants and soil
• Strong winds
loss of plants or falling of flowers
reduced harvest
• Changes in flowering / irregular flowering
Source: Various studies of CIAT and CATIE, AdapCC 2010
What are predicted changes for Brazil?
Temperature
Increases by > 3°Cin southern Brazil expected by 2050
For southern South America above 4°C in summer and 2 to 5°C in
winter expected by 2071 - 2100
Due to rising temperatures: increased evapotranspiration
water deficiency in south and southeast Brazil
Hot days /
nights
More short-term temperature extremes expected, increasing
number of hot days and nights
Precipitation
Increase of rainfall of above 20% in Southeast in form of more
intense and more frequent extreme events expected by 2071 –
2100
Source: 4th AR IPCC 2007; CREAS 2009
What are the consequences for Brazilian
agriculture?
• By 2050: 50% of currently suitable area for
agriculture will be affected by desertification
and salinization (IPCC 4 AR 2007)
th
• Benefits: reduced frost risk in southern and
southeast regions (Pinto, Assad)
Current suitable coffee growing zones
Source: Pinto & Assad 2008
Predicted changes in suitability:
Optimistic outlook
Current
suitable
areas
Source: Pinto & Assad 2008
Optimistic outlook SRES B2 until 2050 (-18.3%) and 2070 (-27.39%)
Predicted changes in suitability:
Pessimistic outlook
Current
suitable
areas
Source: Pinto & Assad 2008
Pessimistic outlook SRES A2 until 2050 (-17.1%) and 2070 (-33%)
What are the consequences for Brazilian
coffee production?
Predictions by EMBRAPA and UNICAMP:
• By 2050 loss of 18.3% of total land suitable for coffee; by 2070 loss of
27.39%
• Potential losses of at least R$ 1.7 billion, R$ 2.57 billion respectively
(based on 2006 production of 2.5 million tonnes worth R$ 9.3 billion)
• Arabica coffee hit hardest: likely loss of suitable area by up to 33% in
São Paolo and Minas Gerais due to water shortages or excessive heat
• Increasing suitability for coffee production in the south due to
reduced frost risk because of rising temperature
• Potential increase in suitability for coffee production in Paraná, Santa
Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul
• Despite the suitability increase in the south, a loss of total production
area is expected
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Climate Change
Adaptation and
Adaptation Options
in Coffee
An overview
Climate Change Adapation and Adaptation
Options in Coffee
Key Questions:
• What are responses to climate change?
• What does climate change adaptation mean?
• What are climate vulnerabilities?
• How can coffee producers adapt to climate
change?
• Are there practical examples to learn from?
• What are relevant terms and definitions?
What are responses to climate
change?
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Impacts
Responses
What is climate change adaptation?
Definition:
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to
actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be
distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive
adaptation, private and public adaptation, and
autonomous and planned adaptation (IPCC TAR, 2001 a)
Action of people (e.g. coffee farmers) that minimizes
negative impacts of climate change or utilizes
opportunities.
What are climate vulnerabilities?
Vulnerabilities in the production system:
• Inadequate management of the farm / of the agro-forestry
system
• Old plants
• Poor soil fertility
• Inefficient management of natural resources
• High deforestation rate affecting local ecosystems
Vulnerabilities of producers:
• High dependence on one cash crop / one source of income
• Lack of access to information / education / capacity
• Lack of access to finance
How can coffee producers adapt to
climate change?
Coffee producers have mainly three
options to adapt:
1. Adapting their production system
2. Adapting their plants
3. Enhancing their framework
conditions
How can coffee producers adapt to
climate change?
Examples of adaptation options:
• Diversification of crops and income
• Good agricultural practices (shade mgmt / pruning / pest
mgmt / soil mgmt)
• New technologies suitable for coffee drying (e.g. solar
dryers)
• Maintenance and expansion of forest cover
• Efficient management of natural resources / efficient energy
use (improved kitchen stoves, renewable energy)
• Capacity building for promoter farmers and producers
• Conservation of genetic diversity / species resistant to
droughts
• Access to climate information, credit, crop insurance
• Farmer organizations
What are recommendations for
Brazil?
The needs for adaptation differ from production site to
production site. However, based on the projections for
Brazil C&C recommends the following:
Enhancing framework conditions
Relevance
Data collection: precipitation and
temperature
Having accurate local data on precipitation and
on temperature helps to monitor changes in
the microclimate and to predict future
changes; it creates awareness on changes
already taking place
What are recommendations for
Brazil?
Adaptation of the Relevance
production
system
Soil moisture
retention by
mulching
Due to increasing temperature and evapotranspiration an
emphasis will need to be put on the conservation of soil
moisture
Wind breaks
To protect the coffee plots better against strong winds and
extreme events
Water harvesting
As water shortage will be a challenge in especially São Paolo and
Minas Gerais, water harvesting will help to relieve water stress
Conservation of
riparian areas
In areas with increased rainfall and more extreme events well
conserved riparian areas can support flood prevention; at the
same time these can prevent high evapotranspiration rates
Barriers to
channel surface
runoff
More extreme weather events and an increase in rainfall in some
areas will lead to excess water which should be channelled
through the plot as to avoid water erosion and land degradation
What are recommendations for
Brazil?
Adaptation of the plant
Relevance
Use of gypsum
The gypsum will facilitate deeper growth of the
roots, therefore nutrients and water down below
can be reached, which will be important in areas
with reduced rainfall and increased
evapotranspiration
Improved (i.e. deeper)
polythene bags for seedlings
This will also facilitate longer roots / deeper root
growth before planting the seedlings (see above)
Are there practical examples to
learn from?
Yes, there have been some pilot initiatives on climate change
adaptation with coffee smallholders. One example is the project
“Adaptation for Smallholders to Climate Change – AdapCC”:
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Development Partnership between Cafédirect plc and GIZ
Duration of three years: 04/2007 to 02/2010
3 pilots in coffee: Mexico, Peru, Nicaragua
1 pilot in tea: Kenya
www.adapcc.org
Practical example: AdapCC pilot Peru
Climate
Variability
Prolonged droughts leading to
more pest incidents
Strong winds
Cold fronts and fog
http://www.adapcc.o
rg/en/peru.htm
Vulnerability
High deforestation rate
Degraded areas / landslides
Poor pest and shade management
Poor soil fertility due to poor agricultural practices
Lack of investments in capacity building and infrastructure
Adaptation
Strategy
Capacity building and technical assistance on good
agricultural practices and climate change adaptation
Reforestation program in the upper water catchment area
and within the coffee plots
What are relevant terms and definitions
regarding adaptation?
Exposure:
• The degree of climate stress upon a particular unit (e.g. farm) in a defined
area
Sensitivity:
• The degree to which a system is affected by, or responsive, to climate
stimuli
Vulnerability:
• Factors which make a system (e.g. coffee production) susceptible to
negative impacts of climate change
Adaptive capacity:
• The ability to adjust to climate stimuli
Resilience:
• The capacity of a system to rebound or recover from a climate stimulus
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Climate Change
Mitigation
An overview
Climate change mitigation
Key Questions:
• What are responses to climate change?
• What is climate change mitigation?
• Which greenhouse gases exist in agriculture?
• Where do we cause emissions?
• What are greenhouse gas pools and sources?
• How can coffee producers mitigate climate
change?
• What are important terms and definitions?
What are responses to climate
change?
Climate
Change
Impacts
Responses
Causes
(GHG)
Mitigation
What is climate change
mitigation?
Definition:
Climate change mitigation is action to decrease the intensity
of radiative forcing* in order to reduce the potential effects
of global warming (IPCC TAR, 2001)
* Radiative forcing: the change in net difference between
the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation
energy in a given climate system; measured in watts per
square meter (IPCC TAR, 2001)
Activities that reduce, prevent or remove greenhouse gases
and therefore reduce climate change.
Which greenhouse gases exist in
agriculture?
Source: IPCC 2007 / adapted from Sangana PPP 2010
7,9 %
Waste
13,1 %
Construction
13,5 %
Transport
17,4 %
Agricultural Sector
19,4 %
Forestry Sector
25,9 %
Industry
Energy generation
Together the forestry and the
agricultural sector contribute
around 31% of global emissions!
2,8 %
Which greehouse gases exist in
agriculture?
The main GHG in
the agricultural
sector are
methane, carbon
dioxide and
nitrous oxide. As
CO2 is the most
important GHG,
the other gases
are calculated
into equivalents
of this gas: CO2e.
Source: IPCC 2007
Where do we cause emissions?
GHG
Source
%
CO2
Burning of fossil fuels for
transportation, generation of
electricity and other uses
56.6
CO2
Deforestation
20.1
CH4
Livestock, rice fields, trash dumps
14.3
N2 O
Fertilizer, livestock
7.9
HFC,
PFC,
SF6
Synthetic origin (aerosol
propellants, refrigeration, foams),
industrial uses, intensive
agriculture
1.1
Source: IPCC 2007 / adapted from Sangana PPP 2010
What are carbon pools?
Carbon pools are ecosystem components capable of emitting or
removing greenhouse gases into or from the atmosphere:
1. Above ground biomass
2. Below ground biomass
3. Dead wood
4. Leaf litter
5. Soil organic carbon (SOC)
Biomass
1, 2
Source:
Sangana PPP
2010
Soil
5
3, 4
Organic matter
What are emission sources?
Source: Sangana PPP 2010
What are emission sources in
agriculture?
Source
Gas
Fertilizer Use
N2O
Burning of fossil fuels
Burning of biomass
CO2
Livestock
production
Gastric fermentation
CH4
Manure management
CH4
N2O
Tillage and over grazing
Source: Adapted from Sangana PPP 2010
CH4
CO2
How can coffee producers mitigate
climate change?
• Removal: activities to capture or remove GHG
by ecosystem components. Removal can be
estimated or measured.
For removal
activities we
consider our
carbon pools.
Atmosphere
Ecosystem
Source: Adapted from Sangana PPP 2010
How can coffee producers mitigate
climate change?
• Reduction: activities to minimize or prevent
GHG emissions generated. Reductions can be
estimated or measured.
Atmosphere
Ecosystems and
activities
Source: Adapted from Sangana PPP 2010
For reduction
activities we
consider our
emission sources.
Where are overlaps between adaptation
and mitigation?
Options
Adaptation
Mitigation
Shade management
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Integrated pest management
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Organic fertilization
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Soil conservation measures
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Diversification (e.g. with fruit trees)
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Mulching
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What are important terms and
definitions?
• Carbon footprint: the total set of GHG emissions
caused by an organization, event, product or
person (UK Carbon Trust, 2009)
• Carbon credit: 1t of CO2e reduced or removed
that is sold; countries or large companies buy
these credits to offset their emissions or to show
their contribution to climate change mitigation
• Carbon project: a project that aims to generate
carbon credits under certain criteria and rules
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Wrap Up
What are responses to climate
change?
Climate
Change
Adaptation
Impacts
Responses
Causes
(GHG)
Mitigation
Reflecting…..
…on what we have learned:
• Are you already affected by climate change? If
so, how?
• Are you prepared for the predicted climate
change and resulting challenges?
• What else would you need to feel well
prepared for future changes?
At home…..
…you can discuss the topic with your families and
neighbours:
• Are they perceiving any changes in climate?
• Do they have access to information on climate
change and predicted future changes?
• Regarding natural resources and coffee
production: How would your children see the
future if everything continuous as it is going now?
How would their desired future look like?
Climate change is
happening now – the
winners will be those,
who are best prepared!
Thank you for your attention.
Author:
Kerstin Linne
[email protected]
Coffee & Climate
www.coffeeandclimate.org

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