Safety Risk Management Tools

Report
Safety Risk Management Tools
 EVA Air’s Perspective & Implementation
Presented by
Danny Ho
Safety & Security Div.
EVA Air Corporation
Aug 30, 2013
1
Philosophy on Safety Risk Management
Predictive thinking, proactive implementation
and reactive response.
Comprehensive, effective, feasible and
sustainable.
Effective safety management requires the
ability to have the right system to collect and
analyze the right information at the right time.
2
Safety Risk Assessment of Flight Operation
-Traditional Practice
Real Time Monitoring (ACMS/AHM)
+
Post Flight Analysis (FDM/FOQA)
3
Real Time Monitoring: ACMS & AHM
MCD
FSD
Post Flight Analysis
90
80
70
50
40
30
WGBBS
Daily Trend Analysis
Hazard Identification
& Risk Management
FDM/ Aerobytes
(QAR)
Flight Data Animation
DFDR
A/C Performance Analysis
FDM/FOQA
Event Review
Event Review Meeting
Flight Data
Alert
Event
FDM
Daily
Report
Statistics/Data base
Detect
Event
Training Improvement &
Procedure Modification
Quarterly Report
Annual Report
Trend Analysis Report
Beside the real time monitoring & post flight analysis,
what miss on Safety Risk Assessment of Flight
Operation ?
Before the flight!
9
Comprehensive Safety Risk Assessment of the
Flight Operation
Before the flight
FORAS
During the flight
ACMS/AHM
After the flight
FOQA/FDM
10
FORAS
Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
• FORAS is a system which designed to capture
risk attributes on the areas of crew, aircraft
functionality and sector threats, and allow risk
mitigation efforts could be deployed before
the flight.
11
Flight Operation Risk
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Newly check out Captain and F/O flying together
Fatigued crew with MRT
Non precision approach or ILS out of service
Strong cross wind
Low visibility with rain or snow
Thrust Reverser INOP
RWY is not grooved with percipitation
The complexity of approach procedure & runway configuration
Operating crew never operating into this airport before
…
Project Background
FORAS concept generated by ICARUS Committee
Think Tank of FSF
Sponsored by :
NASA
Prototype Developed
by : Dr. Michael Hadjimichel
FORAS Development
EVA AIR & Dr. Michael Hadjimichel
System Introduction
• FORAS is a methodology for generating a risk model, which produces
a relative, quantitative measurement of a specific risk exposure in
flight operations.
– Gather the weather information, crew experience, navigation aids, and
aircraft’s status etc.
• A decision support tool to measure and reduce risk exposure.
– A decision aids for risk awareness, not a GO or NO GO decision tool.
• Proactive, predictive approach to aviation safety.
– Analyze operational risks and take the actions of relevant risk
mitigation to ensure a safe operation.
14
2. System Architecture
CRTS: Crew Rostering and Tracking System
FIS: Flight Information System
SMIS: Safety Management Information System
FORAS Fuzzy
inference engine
FORAS
Models
CRTS
FIS
EVA
Database
SMIS
NOTAM
FORAS CPI
engine
Weather
System
FORAS
• Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
DRV : Departure Risk Value
ALRV : Approach & Landing Risk Value
DRV & ALRV will be calculated automatically 2.5 hrs before the flight.
Model structure
DRV / ALRV
• Crew Variable (Dep77;Arr85)
• Sector Variable (Dep6;Arr11)
• Aircraft Variable (Dep1;Arr1)
Code
TA01
TC01
TC02
TC03
TC04
TC05_C
TC06_C
TC07_C
TC08_C
TC09_C
Rule Tables (Dep133;Arr166)
Terminal value
(T-value:Dep117;Arr146)
T value definition
Raw Data
(D-Value: Dep116;Arr141)
Code
P001_1
P002_1
P003_1
P004_1
P005_1
P005_2
P006_1
Description
Approach and Landing-related MEL Items
Experience pairing
Rank composition
English proficiency
Multi-nationalities
Airport recency
Special airport/runway
Numbers of previous visits
EVA type hours
Flying recency as PF
Description
PILOT1 RANK
PILOT1_GRADE
PILOT1_NATIONALITY
PILOT1_LASTTIME_AT_AIRPORT
PILOT1_SECTORS_AT_RANK
PILOT2_SECTORS_AT_RANK
PILOT1_LIFE_TIME_HOURS
17
Crew
Functionality
Pilot Experience
Intercrew
Communication
A/C Flying
Experience
Experience
Pairing
Rank
Composition
Airport
Familiarity
Pilot Fatigue
Transient
Fatigue
Cumulative
Fatigue
Comm.
Proficiency
Airport
recency
Special
airport/runway
Numbers of
previous visits
18
A/C Flying
Experience
Total
Hours
EVA type
hours
Pre-EVA
hours
Flying
recency
as PF
Sectors
EVA hours
Type
landing
Landing
at rank
EVA
landing
19
Transient
Fatigue
Pre-workload
Previous sectors
flown
on this duty period
Pre-flight Rest
Duty hours
since beginning
In-flight fatigue
In-flight
Rest
Pre-flight
circadian night
Duty hours
of
this flight
In-flight
rest hours
Pre-flight
rest hours
Extra crew
availability
Crew bunk
availability
20
Cumulative Fatigue
Work Amount
Previous Flying
Pre-7 days
workload
Rest
Schedule
stability
Pre-30 days
workload
Rest recency
Rest amount
Pre-90 days
workload
21
Aircraft
Functionality
DRV & ALRV-related MEL
B777-300ER
DEP
22-11-09B
Takeoff/Go-Around (TO/GA) Switches
32-42-01A
Normal Antiskid Valve
32-30-01
Landing Gear Actuation System
ARR
22-11-02B
Autopilot Backdrive Actuator System
22-11-06B
Mode Control Panel Switches-A/P Engage Switches
22-31-01
31-51-05A
Autothrottle System
Fleet
A330
B747
B777
MD11
Items
:
64
:
64
: 104
:
79
WES Autopilot Disconnect Warning Function
22
Sector
Threat
Airport
Weather
Weather
Complexity
Convective
Wx Issues
Precipitation
Crosswind
Components
Visual
Condition
Ambient
Light
Ceiling
Margin
Visibility
Margin
23
Airport
ATC
Functionality
ATC
control quality
ATC
English proficiency
Approach
Complexity
A/P Familiarity
Congestion
Runway
complexity
Airport
busy hour
24
Approach
Complexity
Flying
Complexity
Precision
approach
Approach
go-around
rate
Special
airport/runway
Airport
terrain/obstacle
Runway
Complexity
Grooved
runway
Sunlight
effective issues
25
Conclusion
Why we need FORAS?
• The core elements of Safety Management
System is hazard identification & risk
management. FORAS is playing a vital &
predictive role on Safety Risk Management.
26
FORAS Promotion Program
• Promote FORAS via a non commercial avenue
• Airlines who are interesting to acquire FORAS shall
donate certain amount of fund into FORAS Fund
according to its fleet size.
• Set up a FORAS Fund and manage it via a committee
of trustees
• The Fund will be utilized to set up FORAS
Scholarship, FORAS Award and the future
development of FORAS, and other aviation risk
management initiatives.
FORAS Promotion Program will be available on Q4 2013.
Frontend
Server
DB
Inference
Engine
Airline A
Frontend
Server
Internet
Inference
Models
Airline B
DB
Frontend Server
Airline C
DB
XML
Backend
Workstation
Thank you!
Q&A
29

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