NICK ANDERSON - harith high level dialogue 2013

Global Asset Management Trends and
The Flow of Capital
Nick Anderson, Head of BlackRock’s Middle East and Africa Business
September 2013
For professional clients / qualified investors only
Global asset management trends
 Global AUM has remained flat over the past five years
 Global growth rates likely to remain slow
 ETFs, SWFs and DC are growth channels
 Investor preferences are rapidly shifting…
 Hugely competitive market place. Winner takes (nearly) all
 Other major trends reshaping the asset management industry
Global AUM has remained flat over the past five years
Global AUM 2012 stood at $62 Trillion, just above the pre-crisis level in ‘07
 Overall the total AUM been relatively flat (average <1% for the past 5 years)
 This is largely due to: suppressed economic growth, de-leveraging, de-risking, declining DB pensions, lower
income returns in portfolios
 Revenues just recovering to pre crisis level
Global Asset Management Market
AUM ($tn)
Net Flows (% AUM)
Source: BCG Global Asset Management Market Sizing Database 2012. Note: AUM total represent assets sourced from each region across 42 markets, that are professionally managed for
a fee, including captive assets of insurance groups and pension funds delegated to asset managers
Global growth rates likely to remain slow
 Organic growth in developed markets is expected to rise from 1% to 1-2% over the next few years
 The smaller, less mature markets are set to continue their faster growth rates, at +7%
 Yet size still matters; 1% gain in market share in developed markets equates to $590bn
Global Asset Management Market by Region
North America
$27.7tn (49%)
Organic Growth Rate
Developed Countries
Emerging Countries
Global AUM
Asia (ex Japan)
$3.3tn (6%)
Europe $17.4tn
MEA $2tn (2%)
Japan & Aus.
$5.8tn (10%)
Latin America
$1.5tn (3%)
Source: BCG Global Asset Management Market Sizing Database 2012. Note: AUM total represent assets sourced from each region across 42 markets, that are professionally managed for
a fee, including captive assets of insurance groups and pension funds delegated to asset managers.
ETFs, SWFs and DC are growth channels
ETFs are the main high growth channel at 12+%, SWFs at 6-8%, all other channels <4%
 Global AUM organic growth of 1.5% to 2.0% from ‘12-’14
 Mutual funds and pensions account for 70% of global AUM, but continuing subdued growth
 ETFs are expected to continue growing at a double digit pace (12-14%) over the next 3-5 years driven by both
continued adoption and the switch to passive
 SWFs will benefit from continued demand for resources
Global Asset Management Market by Channel
Source: McKinsey Global Asset Management Database for institutions. Strategic Insight for mutual funds and ETPs. Note: (1) 2007-2011 for institutions and 2007-1H 2012 for mutual funds
and ETPs; (2) includes corporates, government entities and non-profit.
Investor preferences are rapidly shifting…
 Low yields, volatile equities are driving investors away from traditional asset allocation model in favour of a
more specialized approach including; low vol, alts and outcome-oriented products
 Significant secular product shift from core equities, core fixed income and sectors to:
Product Type
Cumulative Flow
$bn (09’12’)
Avg Organic
Growth (09’-12’)
Active specialities ( EM, Global, HY, Distressed, CLO, Bank Loans
Flexible, Multi Asset and Alts (outcome orientated)
Passive/ ETFs
Global Asset Management Market by Strategy
Active core includes active-domestic, large-cap-equity, active-government bond, money-market, and traditional balanced; active specialities includes equity specialties (foreign, global,
EM, and small- and mid-cap sectors) and fixed-income specialties (credit, EM global, HY, and convertibles); alternatives includes structured products, hedge funds, private equity, real
estate, infrastructure, LDI and commodity; solutions includes absolute-return, target-date, global-asset-allocation, flexible, income, and volatility funds
Hugely competitive market place. Winner takes (nearly) all:
 The top-10 managers have captured ~70% or more of the flows in most product segments in institutional & retail markets
 These managers have identified the important trends, innovated successful new products, have consistent product
performance and close coordination between manufacturing and distribution
 Passive
 Unconstrained
 Outcome Orientated
 Institutional dogfight for market share
 Top quartile performance
 Consistency relative to peers
Other major trends reshaping the asset management industry:
 Fee compression; move to passive and alts
 Declining correlation of individual stocks and lower volatility increase potential for alpha generation
 Growth of barbell strategies
 Web technology for retail investors
 Merges and acquisitions
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