Statistics in Standards Development and Use

Report
Statistics in Standards and
Standards Development
Neil R. Ullman
ASQ Section 304
Sept. 19, 2012
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
1
ASTM International
• Established over 100 years ago
• Originally - American Society for Testing
Materials
• Later changed to … Testing And Materials
• Over 140 committees developing consensus
standards
• Committee E11 on Quality and Statistics
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
2
Early Statistical Efforts
• In 1930’s Walter Shewhart Chaired:
– Joint Committee on the Development of
Statistics in Engineering and Manufacturing
• American Society of Mechanical Engineers
• American Society for Testing Materials
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
3
ASTM E-1 subcommittee
• Subcommittee IX on Interpretation and
Presentation of Data was established under
ASTM Committee E-1 Method of Testing
• Harold F. Dodge - Chairman
• Manual committee prepared
– A.S.T.M. Manual on Presentation of Data
• Later published as Special Technical
Publication STP-15
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
4
STP-15
• Initial section published in 1933
– Presentation of Data
• Two Supplements published in 1935
– A - Presenting +/- Limits of Uncertainty of an
Observed Average
– B- “Control Chart” Method of Analysis and
Presentation of Data
• First simple to use description of control charting
• Incorporated in ASA War Standards Z1.1, Z1.2, Z1.3
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
5
E11 Organized
• In 1946 Committee E-11 on Quality Control of
Materials formed
– Same time as ASQC
– Harold F. Dodge is first Chairman
• Listing of some members in 1951 included
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Charles Bicking
W.E. Deming
E.G. Olds
L.E. Simon
S.S. Wilks
W. J. Youden
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
6
Early Standards
• As an ASTM Committee they could prepare
formal consensus standards which also became
American National Standards
• First standards (works by Deming, Grubbs, Brad
Murphy:
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E29 – significant digits for conformance to specs
E105 – Probability Sampling
E122 – Calculating sample size
E141 – Acceptance of evidence based on sampling
E177 – Precision
E178 – Dealing with Outliers
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
7
Committee is Opened Up
• Originally consisted of 25 self appointed
members plus a few liaisons
• In mid 70’s ANSI required opening up committee
• I joined in 1976 as did a large number of others
• It Became Committee E11 on Quality AND
Statistics
• Was an amazing group who accepted someone
from a Community College with a Masters Degree
to become integral to the group – I eventually
became Chair of E11 and wrote a number of
standards.
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
8
Some Members at the time
• Acheson Duncan was Chair
• People from NBS included Mary Natrella, John Mandel, Ted
Lashoff
• Ed Deming was still active
• Stu Hunter participated
• Dick Freund was involved heavily in terminology trying to
coordinate efforts between ASQC, ASTM, TC69
• Blan Godfrey came from BTL and Brad Murphy was still
active
• Others included Gerry Hahn, Ed Schilling, Tom Bainbridge
• Several members were actively involved with TC69 and
reported back
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
9
ILS Creates Interest in E11 Work
• E691 Conducting an Interlaboratory Study to
Determine the Precision of a Test Method
– Adopted in 1979
– John Mandel and Ted Lashoff of NBS write it
– Introduces repeatability and reproducibility
• ASTM Form and Style requires ILS for test
methods.
– Real catalyst for forcing statistical considerations
– E11 began assistance and presentations
• Mandel and Lashoff also helped prepare ISO 5725
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
10
More than the ILS
• Other concerns had been recognized
regarding developing test methods
– Test Method needs to be in a State of Statistical
Control
– Ruggedness testing was important
– Understanding what IS the Test Result became
recognized
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
11
E1488
• It became important to provide a road map
for test method developers
• E1488 Guide for Statistical Procedures to Use
in Developing and Applying Test Methods
– Describes series of phases as standards evolve
– Framework for courses
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
12
4 Phases
• Design – Formulation of scope, purpose,
creation of draft method, and establish Test
Result
• Development – Within lab examination,
contributions to variation, ruggedness
• Evaluation – ILS to obtain Precision &Bias
statement (originally Precision and Accuracy)
• Monitoring – within lab uncertainty,
proficiency
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
13
New
Standard
Flowchart
Preliminary Design
Initial Design
Development
Based on a few labs:
Property to measure
Scope and
Significance and use of
Test Method
Draft Test Method
Sample Requirements
Test Results
Detection Limit
Flow Chart of operations
Stability and control
Ruggedness
Variability analysis
Uncertainty experiments
Preliminary Estimate of
Repeatability –
intermediate precision or
Uncertainty estimates
Consider
revisions
Review
Results
Acceptable
Evaluation
Need to
Evaluate
more?
Just do ILS
Laboratories in
Statistical Control
ILS E691
Review past
Results
Existing
Standard
Incorporate
Precision
Bias
Monitoring
Specification of
Materials
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
Control Charting
Proficiency Testng
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Important Aspects
• Uncertainty
– We recognize this as Within Lab, Long Term
variation
• Intermediate precision
• E2554 using Control Charting methodology
• Proficiency Testing programs
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
15
Other E11 standards
• Sampling and general Statistics
• Control Charting and related standards
• Acceptance Sampling
– Ed Schilling began process of adopting Mil Stds
– Began with a standard on Dodge Romig Tables
• In conjunction with reissue of book
– Starting with MIL 105 we have been adopting the
complete collection of standards and H volumes thus
keeping them available (but in ASTM form and style)
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
16
An Open Committee
• E11 invites individuals who would like to
participate in creating new standards and
revising existing ones
– Users – representatives concerned with utilizing
the standards to provide input on what is good or
bad
– Producers – those who are interested in helping
create new materials and have some expertise
– General Interest – academics etc who like to assist
in some way.
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
17
Composition Of E11
• Only have a small number of individuals who help in the
real work
– Several of those individuals also are active on US Tag to ISO
TC69
• Several hundred members - most involved with other
technical committees such as roads, petroleum, water,
paint …
• Membership at $75 provides one volume of ASTM
standards annually and ability to be an active member of as
many committees and subcommittees you want to be on.
• Meet outside Philly but all meetings allow online
engagement and most real standards work done between
meetings.
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
18
Contact Me
• You May Contact Me At:
• [email protected]
• Neil R. Ullman
4 Sarazen Ct,
Florham Park, NJ 07932
• 973-822-3327
• Cell 973-464-1982
• I do Training and consulting
– Ullman Associates LLC
– www.Ullman.Net
• (please note – this site has been dormant for many years
and is just now being reconstituted)
© 2012 Neil R. Ullman
ASQ 304 presentation
19

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