Report

Statistics in Standards and Standards Development Neil R. Ullman ASQ Section 304 Sept. 19, 2012 © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 1 ASTM International • Established over 100 years ago • Originally - American Society for Testing Materials • Later changed to … Testing And Materials • Over 140 committees developing consensus standards • Committee E11 on Quality and Statistics © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 2 Early Statistical Efforts • In 1930’s Walter Shewhart Chaired: – Joint Committee on the Development of Statistics in Engineering and Manufacturing • American Society of Mechanical Engineers • American Society for Testing Materials © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 3 ASTM E-1 subcommittee • Subcommittee IX on Interpretation and Presentation of Data was established under ASTM Committee E-1 Method of Testing • Harold F. Dodge - Chairman • Manual committee prepared – A.S.T.M. Manual on Presentation of Data • Later published as Special Technical Publication STP-15 © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 4 STP-15 • Initial section published in 1933 – Presentation of Data • Two Supplements published in 1935 – A - Presenting +/- Limits of Uncertainty of an Observed Average – B- “Control Chart” Method of Analysis and Presentation of Data • First simple to use description of control charting • Incorporated in ASA War Standards Z1.1, Z1.2, Z1.3 © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 5 E11 Organized • In 1946 Committee E-11 on Quality Control of Materials formed – Same time as ASQC – Harold F. Dodge is first Chairman • Listing of some members in 1951 included – – – – – – Charles Bicking W.E. Deming E.G. Olds L.E. Simon S.S. Wilks W. J. Youden © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 6 Early Standards • As an ASTM Committee they could prepare formal consensus standards which also became American National Standards • First standards (works by Deming, Grubbs, Brad Murphy: – – – – – – E29 – significant digits for conformance to specs E105 – Probability Sampling E122 – Calculating sample size E141 – Acceptance of evidence based on sampling E177 – Precision E178 – Dealing with Outliers © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 7 Committee is Opened Up • Originally consisted of 25 self appointed members plus a few liaisons • In mid 70’s ANSI required opening up committee • I joined in 1976 as did a large number of others • It Became Committee E11 on Quality AND Statistics • Was an amazing group who accepted someone from a Community College with a Masters Degree to become integral to the group – I eventually became Chair of E11 and wrote a number of standards. © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 8 Some Members at the time • Acheson Duncan was Chair • People from NBS included Mary Natrella, John Mandel, Ted Lashoff • Ed Deming was still active • Stu Hunter participated • Dick Freund was involved heavily in terminology trying to coordinate efforts between ASQC, ASTM, TC69 • Blan Godfrey came from BTL and Brad Murphy was still active • Others included Gerry Hahn, Ed Schilling, Tom Bainbridge • Several members were actively involved with TC69 and reported back © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 9 ILS Creates Interest in E11 Work • E691 Conducting an Interlaboratory Study to Determine the Precision of a Test Method – Adopted in 1979 – John Mandel and Ted Lashoff of NBS write it – Introduces repeatability and reproducibility • ASTM Form and Style requires ILS for test methods. – Real catalyst for forcing statistical considerations – E11 began assistance and presentations • Mandel and Lashoff also helped prepare ISO 5725 © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 10 More than the ILS • Other concerns had been recognized regarding developing test methods – Test Method needs to be in a State of Statistical Control – Ruggedness testing was important – Understanding what IS the Test Result became recognized © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 11 E1488 • It became important to provide a road map for test method developers • E1488 Guide for Statistical Procedures to Use in Developing and Applying Test Methods – Describes series of phases as standards evolve – Framework for courses © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 12 4 Phases • Design – Formulation of scope, purpose, creation of draft method, and establish Test Result • Development – Within lab examination, contributions to variation, ruggedness • Evaluation – ILS to obtain Precision &Bias statement (originally Precision and Accuracy) • Monitoring – within lab uncertainty, proficiency © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 13 New Standard Flowchart Preliminary Design Initial Design Development Based on a few labs: Property to measure Scope and Significance and use of Test Method Draft Test Method Sample Requirements Test Results Detection Limit Flow Chart of operations Stability and control Ruggedness Variability analysis Uncertainty experiments Preliminary Estimate of Repeatability – intermediate precision or Uncertainty estimates Consider revisions Review Results Acceptable Evaluation Need to Evaluate more? Just do ILS Laboratories in Statistical Control ILS E691 Review past Results Existing Standard Incorporate Precision Bias Monitoring Specification of Materials © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation Control Charting Proficiency Testng 14 Important Aspects • Uncertainty – We recognize this as Within Lab, Long Term variation • Intermediate precision • E2554 using Control Charting methodology • Proficiency Testing programs © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 15 Other E11 standards • Sampling and general Statistics • Control Charting and related standards • Acceptance Sampling – Ed Schilling began process of adopting Mil Stds – Began with a standard on Dodge Romig Tables • In conjunction with reissue of book – Starting with MIL 105 we have been adopting the complete collection of standards and H volumes thus keeping them available (but in ASTM form and style) © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 16 An Open Committee • E11 invites individuals who would like to participate in creating new standards and revising existing ones – Users – representatives concerned with utilizing the standards to provide input on what is good or bad – Producers – those who are interested in helping create new materials and have some expertise – General Interest – academics etc who like to assist in some way. © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 17 Composition Of E11 • Only have a small number of individuals who help in the real work – Several of those individuals also are active on US Tag to ISO TC69 • Several hundred members - most involved with other technical committees such as roads, petroleum, water, paint … • Membership at $75 provides one volume of ASTM standards annually and ability to be an active member of as many committees and subcommittees you want to be on. • Meet outside Philly but all meetings allow online engagement and most real standards work done between meetings. © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 18 Contact Me • You May Contact Me At: • [email protected] • Neil R. Ullman 4 Sarazen Ct, Florham Park, NJ 07932 • 973-822-3327 • Cell 973-464-1982 • I do Training and consulting – Ullman Associates LLC – www.Ullman.Net • (please note – this site has been dormant for many years and is just now being reconstituted) © 2012 Neil R. Ullman ASQ 304 presentation 19