Technology Overview

Report
Top 50 Technologies
TechVision 2020 Program
Beatrice Shepherd
Vice President Frost & Sullivan CEE & Russia
Moscow, 2012
Global Top 10 Hot Technologies to Invest
“Valley of Death”
“Diffusion of Innovation”
Top 10 Hot Technologies
Map of the Complex ‘Innovation’ Universe
TECHNOLOGY
Emerging
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Healthcare
Emerging
Competition
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Due diligence
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Center
INTELLECTUAL
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IP
Strategy
Country
Risk
Open
Innovation
Licensing
Strategies
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Shifts
Patent Risk:
Patentability
Assessment
INDUSTRY
Market
Assessment
Economic
Trends
Industry
Expansion
Potential
BEST
PRACTICES
Economic
Development
GLOBAL
Nano
Technology
Disclosure
Analysis
Competitive
Strategy
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Team
ECONOMIC
Behavior
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Applications
COMPETITIVE
In-Direct
Competition
Valley of Death (VoD)
Investor’s Guide: What, Why and How to avoid?
Given the dangers of falling into the “Valley of Death”, investors need to closely assess the potential of a given
technology platform to understand the true market potential it holds and to evaluate the risk-reward elements
Global Top 10 Hot Technologies to Invest
“Valley of Death”
“Diffusion of Innovation”
Top 10 Hot Technologies
Diffusion of Innovation (DOI)
Process, Dynamics, Stakeholder,
Applications, Impact
‘Dynamics’ of
Tech Development
‘Stakeholders’
fuelling the Dynamics
Universities/R&D
Institutes
Companies
Need
Funding
(entire value chain)
Combined
influence
Opportunity
Government
End-users
Entities
Capability
Regulatory
Bodies
Venture Capitalists
Associations
Stages of
Tech Development
Technology
Basic Research
1
Applied R&D
2
Tech platform ready for
addressing ‘primary’ application
needs
Demonstration
3
Time lag
Commercialization
4
Original tech
platform finds use
in newer applications
Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) …
Example – Wireless Sensor Networks
(WSN)
Estimated Global Market Size
by 2014 = $2.9 Billion
Current technology is based on a number of
platforms driven by different industry
stakeholders: IEEE 802.15.4, ZigBee,
6LoWPAN etc.
Diffusion Rate
Cross Over
Point
The cumulative impact of
the different rates is on
the tech and its
continued adoption over
a period of time.
Healthcare
Building
Automation
Industrial
Automation
Location &
Tracking
Environment
& Agriculture
Mission
Critical
(Nuclear Plants, Space)
Early Adopters
2006
2007
Followers
2008
2009
Laggards
2010
Based on a derivative of
‘Bass Diffusion model’,
the DOI curve indicates
the different rates at
which markets/
applications are
expected to adopt
“Wireless Sensor
Networks” (WSN).
2011
2012
2013
Time
The landscape also
witnesses ‘cross over
points’ whereby driven
by multidimensional
factors, a certain
industry becomes the
‘lead driver’ over ‘early
adopter’ – signalling a
change in evolutionary
pattern.
Example: Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) - Industrial Automation & Building Automation find greatest WSN
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
technology penetration with other applications following it as reliability increases & cost decreases in the future
Top 10 Hot & Emerging Technologies …
Approach
Selection Methodology
1.
For the purpose of this exercise,
Frost & Sullivan used the
Technology Analysis Framework
(TAF)
2.
Interrelation & dynamics between
these focal points govern
technology development,
adoption and deployment in any
industry for any technology
Step 0
Framework finalization
Step 1
Collection of Technologies
across Industries
• Create a pool of technologies (> 25) that are
poised to have a significant impact in the near-mid
term
Step 2
2 phased evaluation of
Technologies to identify the top
candidates
• Develop 1st level filter criterions to assess
true potential of technologies across applications
• Arrive at the final list of top 10 global technologies
by testing them against 2nd level criterions
Top 50 Technology Web
Global Top 10 Hot Technologies to Invest
“Valley of Death”
“Diffusion of Innovation”
Top 10 Hot Technologies
Nanomaterials: Technology Snapshot
2
3
1
1
4
5
Technology Adoption
Technology Overview
Why is it important?
Year of Impact
4
2.5
2.5
0
3
2
5
0
Technology Maturity
• Nanocatalysts utilize nanomaterials for homogenous and heterogeneous catalytic reactions.
They increase the functionality and specificity of the catalytic reactions, while reducing the
reaction time. Nanocatalysts can be particulate, porous, crystalline or supra molecular in
nature. They are used in applications pertaining to alternative energy, pharmaceuticals, oil and
gas to name a few.
• Nanocatalysts exhibit better performance than conventional catalysts. Their nanoscale nature
results in the greater availability of catalyst, leading to increased catalytic performance and
utilization of raw materials, faster reaction time, and improved quality of the reactions.
Nanocatalysts are ecologically benign and are consider “green” when compared to
conventional catalysts.
• You’ll see nanocatalysts making an impact this year; they will have a significant impact in the
Alternate Energy and Oil and Gas sectors for fuel conversion reactions and biofuel synthesis.
The nanocatalysts has applications in drug delivery, gene therapy and biosensors in the
pharmaceutical industry. They can be used in the manufacture of cosmetics, agrochemicals,
plastics and industrial chemicals.
Nanomaterials: Technology Development and Adoption
Footprint
North America
•DOE and NSF funding has led to the development and adoption of
nanocatalysts in the manufacture of biofuels, fine chemicals and
water purification methods.
•Industrial funding in the pharmaceutical and personal care sector
has enabled the use of nanocatalysts for drug delivery, gene therapy,
biosensors and cosmetics.
Europe
•Stringent government regulations and funding from DEFRA has
driven the applications of nanocatalysts for developing biofuels and
use iin waste water treatment.
•Automobile companies are funding the research and development of
nanocatalysts for fuel cells and portable power units
China / Japan / Taiwan
•The
countries
are
concentrating on developing
nanocatalysts for chemical
industry.
Middle East
•Industries and universities fund the development of
nanocatalysts in crude oil desulfurization, catalytic
cracking and reforming of petroleum; this has led to
the adoption of nanocatalysts in the oil and gas sector.
Intensity of Technology
Development
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
India
•Research is still in developmental stages
•Industrial collaborations have resulted in
the use of nanocatalysts for the
manufacture of fine chemicals
Australia
•Australia is working on the use
of nanocatalysts for fuel cells
and auto catalysts
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Smart Textiles: Technology Snapshot
3
2
1
1
4
5
Technology Adoption
4
2.5
1.75
0
3
2
5
0
Technology Maturity
Technology Overview
• Smart textiles are defined as textiles capable of superior performance thought the aid of
electronics and superior engineered materials.
• In the most recent Olympics, we witnessed several new world records in swimming, partly
due to technologically enhanced swimsuits.
Why is it important?
• Smart textiles as a market has seen exponential growth over the past few years.
• Apart from being applicable for sports, smart textiles are used in healthcare protective gear
and military applications
• Currently, the smart textiles market is fragmented as the technology caters to high end and
niche applications.
Year of Impact
•The technology for smart textiles is expected to be widely adopted in some niche
applications such as firefighting and sports in the next two to three years provided the issues
related to cost and ease of manufacturing in large scale are overcome. Smart textiles have
the potential to become fashionable yet life saving.
Smart Textiles: Funding Trends
Application Sectors
Speciality
Applications
14%
Military
Healthcare
Military
38
%
Sportswear
19%
Sports Wear
Specialty
Applications
Healthcare
29%
• The largest area of application is military apparel. This is because any advantage in a combat field can never be
underestimated. In this regard, smart textiles have the ability to provide superior camouflage functionality. This benefit has
driven increased government funding for smart textiles in the recent years.
• The next most significant area of research focus is Healthcare. This is driven by high costs of specialist healthcare personnel.
• Sportswear is also a key area of research focus as the textiles used in sports applications provide some superior
characteristics when compared to normal wear. For example, swimwear can show superior hydrophobic properties.
Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage
Micro UAV
Electric Vehicle
Fuel Cell
Solider
Modernization
Human Energy
Harvesting
Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Funding
Trends
Funding from DOE and Recovery Act for Energy Storage,
2009 - 2010
Public spending on transportation-related
energy storage, 2008‐ 2011
$50 million
$597 million
$271 million
Source: IEA, 2011
• The US government began active funding of advanced energy
storage R&D only in the last few years.
• The high portion of US public spending in energy storage for
transportation is mainly due to $400 million being set aside for
demonstration purposes, whereas grid-scale demonstration has
been provided a budget of $185 million.
• In late 2009, DOE awarded grants for the construction of 150MW/10-hour and 300-MW/10-hour advanced secondgeneration CT-CAES units to New York State Electric & Gas and
PG&E, respectively.
• Discounting China from the top spenders of public
spending (due to the unavailability of data), the
US, Japan, Germany and France then emerge as
the Top 4 spenders with regards to energy
storage for transportation applications, due to the
countries ’
association with automotive
manufacturing.
• Interestingly, spending on fuel cell RD&D actually
outpaced that of batteries.
Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage: Technology
Landscape
Uninterruptable Power Supply
Power Quality
Transmission & Distribution
Grid Support
Load Shifting and Leveling
Lithium air (Li-air) & Lithium sulfur (Li-S)
Basic R&D
Phase Change Materials
Bulk Power & Energy
Management
Superconducting Magnetic Energy
Storage (SMES)
Fuel Cells
Advanced Lead-Acid
Flow Batteries (Vanadium Flow, Vanadium Redox, Zinc-Bromine, etc.)
Lithium Ion (Li-ion)
DemonstrationScale
Flywheels
Ultra-/Supercapacitors
Sodium Nickel Chloride (Na/NiCl2)
Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)
Nickel Cadmium (NiCd)
Commercial
Sodium Sulfur (NaS)
Molten Salts
Lead-Acid Batteries
Mature
Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH)
1 kW
100 kW
1 MW
100 MW
System Power Ratings, Module Size
Pumped Hydro
1 GW
Thin film PV
United States
The US Department of Energy (DOE)
supported the Solar Energy Technologies
Program (SETP) with $225 million in 2010 and
$117 million from the Recovery Act. In 2010,
the DOE funded the third and final year of
more than 20 Next Generation program
projects in 11 different areas. A total of $8
million will be set aside for the development of
advanced thin films.
Intensity of Technology
Development
Very High
High
Medium
Key Insight: Solar accounted for 27% (119 deals in 2010)
of the overall number of VC and Private Equity
investments in the Renewable Energy Sector
Germany
In 2010, the Federal Environment Ministry (BMU)
provided EUR 39.1 million to support R&D
projects on PV, spread out over 152 projects. In
the area of thin film, focus was on silicon and CIS
technologies. In addition, Germany has several
active companies in thin film PV, including silicon
thin film (10 companies, 420 MW production
capacity), CIS (11 companies, 310 MW) and CdTe
(3 companies, 260 MW)
China
Installation of PV in China is largely due to
the desire to improve rural infrastructure.
Although China has emerged to become
the largest producer of PV modules in the
world, the country is still relatively weak in
thin film R&D. Most thin film R&D is
undertaken by the academic sector, where
certain R&D institutions have developed
thin film PV with higher efficiencies,
including Nankai University (CIGS, 14.3%),
and Sichuan University (CdTe, 13.4%).
France
A major R&D project in France is POLYSIL,
which started in December 2009. Focusing
on the development of thin film PV, the
project aims to give France a leading edge
in thin film PV technology. Another key
stakeholder is IRDEP, a R&D institution that
is focusing on reducing production costs of
PV modules, improved PV conversion
efficiencies and processes for thin film
deposition.
Low
Very Low
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Thin Film PV: Funding Trends
Public spending on Solar PV RD&D for selected countries, 2010
• Many countries are still investing a large percentage of
their public R&D spending on R&D and deployment of
solar technologies.
• Top national spenders were USA, Japan, Korea,
France and Australia.
• Data on public spending in China was not available.
However, based on China’s interest on clean energy
R&D, it is expected that public spending would be
higher, or at least equivalent to that of USA.
Venture capital spending on Thin Film PV, 2007 - 2008
• Between 2007 and 2008, more than $1.6 billion in venture
capital was invested globally in thin film PV, which has
resulted in the establishment of more than 100 start-ups.
• Most VC investment was focused on CIGS, which has shown
the highest efficiencies among all the thin film PV
technologies, although manufacturing costs for CIGS are still
relatively higher.
• Of the 10 largest clean-tech VC deals in USA in 2010, three
were for thin film PV (Solyndra, Abound Solar and Miasole),
with an average investment of $130 million.
Renewable Chemicals: Technology Snapshot
3
2
1
2
1
4
2.0
Technology Adoption
4
2.0
5
0
3
0
5
Technology Maturity
Technology Overview
• Renewable chemicals refers to the development of environmentally friendly, sustainable
chemicals that can be used to replace traditional petrochemicals.
• The main feedstock for renewable chemicals are usually obtained from sugar, starch and
vegetable oil feedstock. Biomass can also be used as a feedstock, but requires
pretreatment processing to convert it to simple sugars.
• The simplest method to produce renewable chemicals is by using fermentation.
Why is it important?
• Renewable chemicals are considered a more environment-friendly alternative to chemicals
derived from fossil fuels. Increased adoption of renewable chemicals will lead to less
carbon emissions, as well as reduced environmental impact.
• The production of renewable chemicals is also driven by the volatility of oil prices, as bulk
chemical producers are attempting to widen their product portfolio so as to lessen their risk
towards volatile oil prices.
Year of Impact
• Renewable chemicals have been available for several years, with the first sector to be impacted
being the plastics industry, with the introduction of bioplastics made from polylactic acid (PLA) and
polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA).
• Other renewable chemicals expected to be commercialized soon are succinic acid, butanol, acrylic
acid, butanediols, propanediols, lactic acid, glycerine, adipic acid, ethanol, glucaric acid, propylene
glycol, acetyls, and furanics.
Advanced Manufacturing: Technology Snapshot
2
3
1
2
1
4
2.5
0
Technology Overview
0
5
Technology Maturity
• Digital Manufacturing technology refers to the use of simulation tools and product lifecycle
management software, and ICT solutions to achieve higher productivity in manufacturing, thereby
increasing competitiveness.
• The removal of global trade barriers, and the creation of globally distributed manufacturing
necessitates the transition to a digital manufacturing enterprise.
• Also, called e-manufacturing technologies in this domain facilitate the link between the ‘top floor’ and
‘shop floor’ wherein information from plant automation and control systems can be fed to higher level
information layers of the enterprise for decision making and strategy management.
•
Why is it important?
4
3.0
5
Technology Adoption
3
There is a dire need to achieve a competitive edge with low cost overseas manufacturing locations,
and this applies to small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) as well. This can be achieved by
utilizing digital manufacturing to achieve cost economics, reducing time to market of products,
improving responsiveness to customers, and acquiring the ability for mass customization.
• Companies can keep pace with competition for developing futuristic products if product lifecycle
management (PLM) solutions are adopted, and simulation tools are effectively used for product
development and process optimization.
Impact
• Usage of digital manufacturing for collaborative new product design, agile manufacturing, and
supply chain integration can be seen in competitive markets. However, there is tremendous
untapped potential across several manufacturing streams, which include small and medium scale
enterprises.
Advanced Manufacturing: Technology Development and
Adoption Footprint
Europe
North America
• Companies utilizing digital innovation for new product
launches using product lifecycle management tools and
software
• Direct digital manufacturing of intricate parts for medical
devices, and electronics
• Adoption of new materials in manufacturing accelerated
by modelling and simulation tools,
especially by
aerospace and automotive sectors Innovative concepts
such as mass customization
facilitated by digital
manufacturing
• Oil & Gas and chemical industry adoption of process
simulation on the rise. Industry using smart
manufacturing solutions provided by companies such as
Aspen technology, ANSYS
Intensity of Technology
Development
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
• Companies such as ABB are establishing fully industrial
IT-driven manufacturing facilities
• Companies like SAP, Siemens offer product
management (PLM) software platforms
lifecycle
• Several ongoing EU framework programme projects
working towards the realization of fully IT-enabled
industrial automation and enterprises
India
• Indian software majors such as
Wipro, Infosys and
Mahindra
Satyam are developing software
technologies that will enable a
connected,
networked
engineering environment and
enterprise.
• Wipro offers solutions that can
help analyze, report and track
key indicators of sustainability in
a manufacturing organization
• Challenges exist for the use of
fully integrated enterprises until
industrial
communication
systems and networks are
upgraded across factories
China / Japan / Korea
• Auto
manufacturers,
and
manufacturers in electronics,
semiconductors and electronics
are
adopters
of
digital
manufacturing.
• Vast untapped potential still
exists in these markets
• Companies rapidly adopting
PLM, virtual manufacturing,
and virtual engineering such
as usage of 3D CAD tools for
modelling and simulation for
new product development.
• Digital
manufacturing
solutions are being leveraged
for
the
expansion
of
manufacturing units
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
3D Integration
System-InPackage (SiP)
3D Integration
Approaches
System-OnChip (SoC)
Illustrations
3D Integrated
Circuit (IC)
Critical markers for sector growth
The Road Ahead
Flexible Electronics
Technology
Potential Markets with
connected needs
Medical
Devices
Consumer
Electronics
Military
Supply
Chain
Food
Packaging
Current Developments/Products
Market Potential
Global CAGR (2009 - 2014) >19%
North
America – 28%
Europe – 32%
APAC – 36%
ROW – 4%
Flexible Electronics: Patent Landscape
Top Patent holders in the area of Flexible Electronics:
Konarka holds more patents in this area.
Geography wise Patent Distribution:
Innovations emerging from North America is observed to be more compared
to other regions of the world.
Patent Distribution as per Inventor Geographical Location:
While United States has the highest number of inventors, certain regions of
Europe and Israel also has strong foothold in this industry.
Patent Filing Trend as per Publication Years:
While the US applications follow a nearly constant trend in the past 5 years,
European patents have risen marginally.
Semantic Web: Technology Snapshot
3
2
1
1
4
5
Technology Adoption
4
3.5
3
0
3
2
5
0
Technology Maturity
Technology Overview
• Semantic Web Technology is a collation of different methods and technologies that serve
as an extension to the web by appending new data and meta data to the existing content.
This technology empowers the computer to process and understand the data available on
the web, extrapolate useful information for the user
• It incorporates markup languages, frameworks, querying tools such as Web Ontology
Language (OWL) and Resource Description Framework (RDF)
Why is it important?
• Semantic Web adds meaning and structure to the content on the web. It assists the
computer to understand relationships between different data sources to make logical
connections and decisions
• Equips the software agent to identify, analyze, evaluate and combine the information
across multiple resources. Performs sophisticated tasks for end users, automates different
operations with minimal human intervention
Year of Impact
• Semantic web has become the buzz word of the internet since 2010. The semantic web
space has witnessed the rise of start ups and consumer based product offerings. With
enterprise inclination towards intuitive analytics continuing to increase, 2012 and 2013
could be rightly cited as the years of major impact for semantic technologies
• Generation of critical insights from customer experience data offers significant business
potential across verticals
Long Term Evolution:Technology Snapshot
2
3
1
1
4
5
Technology Adoption
4
3.5
2.7
0
3
2
5
0
Technology Maturity
• Long Term Evolution (LTE) is a fourth generation (4G) cellular network technology that
promises to offer enhanced data rates and capacity for mobile broadband connectivity
Technology Overview
Why is it important?
• The technology has garnered the attention of several large carrier network operatorsmany operators have abandoned WiMAX, a competing 4G technology, in favour of LTE.
• Cellular network operators across the globe have been struggling to support the surging
data traffic on their networks. With the advent and widespread adoption of powerful
smartphones, mobile data traffic has risen drastically
• LTE, owing to its ability to facilitate improved data rates and capacity, is cited as a
solution for cellular network capacity crunch
Year of Impact
• The time division duplex (TDD) version of LTE is expected to be widely deployed as the
availability of unpaired spectrum can be leveraged for LTE TDD deployments. Major
deployments are expected in India in 2011, followed by China and Japan in 2012
Genome Sequencing: Technology Snapshot
3
2
1
1
4
5
Technology Adoption
4
3.5
4
0
3
2
5
0
Technology Maturity
Technology
Overview
• Following the complete sequencing of the human genome and the availability of the
annotated human genome sequence online, DNA analysis has become a routine
procedure.
• Emergence of novel technologies for global genomic analysis (high throughput sequencing,
transcript profiling, SNP genotyping), haplotype mapping, and bioinformatics has
revolutionized the information available about the human genome.
Why is it
important?
• Genomics provides structural and organizational information and aims to improve the
ability to predict the manner in which genetic variation affects susceptibility to disease,
response to medical treatments, and how other important phenotypes, will have a
transformative effect on health care.
• Reductions in sequencing costs and improvements in the speed at which sequences can
be generated are ushering the era for personal genomics.
Year of Impact
• Automated procedures are commercialized to prepare DNA for sequencing and analysis
broadly for health assessment, therapeutic decisions, and predicting phenotypes of interest.
• Entire human genome can now be sequenced for a retail cost of $20,000 and NHGRI part
of the U.S. National Institute of Health has set a target to be able to sequence a humansized genome for US $1,000 by 2014
Thank You
Beatrice Shepherd
Vice President Frost & Sullivan
Frost & Sullivan CEE, Russia and CIS
[email protected]
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