YASHDA 08/03/2013 Training Session on Opinion Building on current issues Dr.Shailendra Deolankar Post cold war changes in Indian foreign policy Professional Interest oriented Focus shifted from regional to global Emphasis on strategic partnership Foreign policy become institutionalized Engaging FP to protect India's economic and trade interests abroad The role of business community in designing FP Objectives Proposal to merge with commerce ministry Core Indian foreign policy objectives Managing Afgn problem after 2014 Peaceful resolution of disputes Protection of vital sea-lanes Freedom of navigation Managing china To develop india’s economic power To acquire defence capabilities to protect india To forge partnership with other powers Indian as Swing State India is a global swing state along with Brazil,Indonesia and Turkey Mixed orientation with two options- maintain strategic autonomy and limiting global engagements or to alter international order in cooperation with US,Europe and Japan Four characteristics- growing economies,strategic location,democratic governance,neither embraced new world order nor rejected it Suggestions COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY ASSERTIVE AND BOLD FOREIGN POLICY LOOK BEYOND PAKISTAN STAND ON GLOBAL ISSUES OMNI-ALIGNMENT POLICY BASED ON CORE-PERIPHERY,CONCENTRIC CIRCLES India- Myanmar Myanmanr has embarked on diversifying its FP and searching for strategic autonomy Attempts to reduce its dependence on china Indian maintained distance and isolated from Myanmar on ideological ground for a long time Recognized importance began engagement to reduce Chinese influence Able to deal with insurgency problem in north-east India effectively Engagement is also beneficial for the economic development of north east India Myanmar is gateway for India's economic engagement with ASEAN countries INDO-US India is not ready to act as a junior partner and wants partnership of equals Core issue- how to convert India from a friend to ally The US wants to develop India’s capabilities and to make India a comprehensive national power India wants to maintain its strategic autonomy Obama tried to reduce US’s dependence on Pak.Pak has lost primacy as geographical and strategic blackmailer The US is encouraging India’s security role in Afgn. Indo-US Four issues- nuclear, retail marketing, insurance reform, defense sale Partnership with US will help India to several security and economic issues America is huge market on Indian investment Source of capital, technology and expertise America is looking for India's sophisticated and cost effective service industries Indian interests can not be achieved unless regional balance of power in Asia is maintained and US can help in this area Obama II Term priorities Shifting focus from West to East Asia. In the first term US intervened in Libya,Syria.Now North and South East Asia priority To bring costly war in Iraq and Afgn to close Pushing alliance partner to do more Strategy to deploy small number of special forces and selective Drone attacks Constructive Engagement Diplomacy towards Iran, China and North Korea Issues in India-china relations China’s claim on Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir China’s tilt towards Pak in dispute with India India’s continued policy to provide safe heaven to Dalai Lama Competition in space,missile,nuclar,energy sectors India-china: War is not possible India of 1962 is different than India of 2013 Both the countries are now nuclear powers Both the countries are in process of economic development Trade between two is close to $100 billions Both are sharing several international platforms on trade,environment, finance and security Realization- more gain from cooperation than confrontation Constructive economic development will benefit both Managing Pakistan Managing Pakistan through engagement Peace talks need to be continued as a confidence building measure Peace talks benefitted a lot in last one decade The liberalised visa and trade agreement are outcome of this talk process Trade has increased up to $15 billion There elements in both the sides who wants to derail the peace talks Track II Diplomacy Building international pressure on Pakistan on the issue of cross border terrorism India-Pak Building confidence and trust is must Economic development is strategic priority for Pak Liberalized trade and Visa agreement with India People-to-People contact between Punjabis,Sindhis,Kashmiries from across the border to be encouraged Siachin Glacier, north west India, adjacent to Karakorum mountain line,74 km long and 8 broad, world’s second largest glacier, 1947-48 war,1/3 part of Kashmir occupied by Pak, karachi agreement, line of control was not stretched up to Karakorum Strategic importance increased after 1962’s Indiachina war Connecting point between- POK-Aksai china. Pak claiming demilitarization whereas India to draw border India-Bangladesh Extradition and liberalized Visa agreement Facilitates Exchange of dreaded criminals-ULFA GSAnup Chetia, Assassinators of Mujbir Raheman Will help India to control the secessionist activities in the north east visa agreement will facilitate trade and investment, strengthen track II diplomacy Both the agreements are beneficial for the economic development of North East India Benefit india’s look east policy Minimize Chinese influence India Nuclear Nuclear weapons are integral part of India’s national security strategy Serve India's national security and protect it from nuclear threats India will retain nuclear weapons unless the goal of universal disarmament is not realized India’s nuclear weapons are not meant for tactical or operational military need India’s nuclear weapons programmes is not meant to disturb the regional balance of power in India India is committed to unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests India is actively participating in the negotiations of Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty RELEVANCE OF NAM NAM AS POLICY NAM AS MOVEMENT ATONOMY IN FOREIGH POLICY DECISION MAKING POLITICAL MOVEMENTCOLONALISM,RACIALISM,COLD WAR,ARMS RACE MAINTINING COOPERATIVE RELATIONS WITH ALL ECONOMIC MOVEMENTNIEO,SOUTH-SOUTH DIALOGUE,NORTH-SOUTH DIALOGUE NAM 2.0 Foreign and strategic policy for India The report has been prepared by a group of experts-Shyam Saran,Nandan Nilekani,sunil khalnani,pratap bhanu Mehta Three parts- opportunities, challenges and strategy How to preserve India's strategic autonomy Identified china as a prominent threat Arms Trade Treaty The treaty does not have any provision to prevent non-state actors No mechanism to stop illicit transfer of weapons from the state actors to non-state actors It does not Military unmanned aerial vehicles It also does not cover anti-personnel landmines Omitted improvised Explosive Devices Afghanistan The US troops will be withdrawn by 2014 The presidential election is due in 2014 Karzai not eligible to contest Afgn might descend into chaos and civil war Domino Effect on South Asia Afgn should sign Status of Forces Agreement with US India is developmental role. Security role is essential Suggestion: constituting South Asian Keeping Force New Politics The protest on both against corruption and violence against women heralded the new kind of politics Articulated pent up grievances Seek alternative and radical amendment Playing the role of much needed corrective in the system The anti corruption movement seek an transferency and accountability The anti gender violence movement made police and their political masters accountable Media is playing prominent role Public opinion has emerged as a fifth pillar of Indian democracy after legislature, executive, judiciary and media The role of middle class is imp The politics arise out of empowerment process Changing Concept of security From external to internal security Non-security threats from non-state actors Bleak enemy No casualties of soldiers; civilian are dying Role of army reduced; role of police force enhanced Human security Human rights Internal security Strengthening India's intelligence system with creation of NATGRID To amend unlawful activities prevention act Establishing and empowering NIA Modernization of police force NCTC Need to be created Terrorism is all India problem and there are cross border elements involved Core issue is whether to treat terrorism as a low and order problem or national crime In most countries it is national crime and they have devised national policies to deal with it In India it is a law and order problem and hence the entry of central govt and military is restricted The debate on NCTC revolves around the accountability factor In US,UK,FRANCE the NCTC is accountable to parliament. The states are demanding the accountability and involvement of state agencies Crime against women suggestions Recruitment of women in police and judicial system To establish fast track courts Special courts to deal with crime against women Proceedings must be speed up Zero-tolerance policy towards criminals Let the accused prove that he is not guilty Police to collaborate with academic and social institutions Naxalism Lack of effective and inclusive development Alienation Adivasis don’t have political voice,political party or national level leadership Violence is the only way of redressal Soldiers died-J&k-64,NE-42,Naxal attack-319 It is not a secessionist problem-Army can not be used Security and development approach Comprehensive security Strong political willpower Effective governance Naxalism The movement started for an honest cause, now mutated No uniformity- different layers-several ethnicities and causes. Naxals of Andhra are different from Chhattisgarh Some committed to ideology, some taking revenge against local chieftains or upper castes leaders, some are depressed and oppressed youths they follow guerilla or mobile warfare tactics Naxalism Soft stand policy and absence of No negotiation policy. No pre-emptive attack, it for tat policy Three objectives: to stop combat operations temporarily, get publicity, to release prisoners Demoralizing effects on security forces Development linked plan to tackle naxalism-201314 Backward rural grants fund-incorporated Panchyat Raj system in distribution of funds Hostage Crisis India not enunciated a uniform counter hostage policy which enables security forces to immediately and effectively respond to the cases of abductions at anywhere in India This approach is in sharp contrast with that of many Western nations, which maintain a policy of non-negotiation with terrorists 1989 rubina saeed case-freed after govt. released five JKLF members. The kandahar hijacking of 1999-crisis ended with release of three militants including Maulana Massod Azhar the media does not give kidnappers much publicity, but in India the reverse is happening. Moreover, unless the government adopts a 'no compromise' attitude, akin to countries like Israel and Russia, There is enormous pressure on the government from all quarters for safe release of hostages. Unless the society at large is prepared to accept the consequences of a 'no compromise' policy, how can you blame the government of being weak-kneed?" . Hostage Crisis The hostage crisis should be treated as national crime and should be dealt under the national level security strategy The Parliament of India must enact an umbrella legislation to deal with all variations of hostage crisis and situation. The proposed national counter terrorism centre would help to deal hostage crisis. The centre will facilitate streamlining of different policies and methods adopted naxal affected states to deal with hostage situation. A hostage crisis management group under the purview of NCTC can be created which will execute a hostage rescue operation effectively Capital Punishment India is one of the 39 countries who have voted against the resolution banning capital punishment at UN It is question of perspective how you look at the concept of justice. In India we look at justice from the perspective of punishment. In the West they look at justice from the perspective of fairness Capital punishment does not deter crime Judicial system is human system and is amenable to commit mistake Capital punishment is a manifestation of state totalitarianism Police, law and order There are two core issues - how to insulate police from political pressure and Training.90% police force constitutes constables and they are undertrained. Every state should have State Security Commission which will lay out policies for police and evaluate their performances To create independent police complaint Authority at the state and district level Army and Naxalism Greater army presence in the Naxalite area as deterrent mechanism Establish army training camps in Naxalite areas Army to involve in the development work at the naxalite areas- can help people in providing educational, health and drinking water facilities Army to involve in retaliatory attacks Army to train the para-military forces-especially in Guerrilla, Jungle warfare tactics Problems of Intelligence Services No separate law to govern conduct the CBI,IB and RAW No central law to govern these institutions CBI created by an executive order in 1963 No independent standing. It is still govern by the Delhi Special Police Establishment Act of 1946 Article 246 Centre can enact law on the issues mentioned in the Union list In US,UK Separate law to govern these instituions Nuclear Terrorism Nuclear terrorism has emerged as a gravest threat for the international peace and security. The world is under the threat of nuclear terrorism and there is a definite risk of nuclear attack by the technically sophisticated terrorists’ organizations This issue acquired global attention in the aftermath of 9/11 terrorist attack on US The problem recently bubbled to surface after Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan. With this accident possibility of theft of fissile material from such crippled reactors by the bad elements heightened There is a strong evidence to suggest that there are well established connections between military and intelligence personnel of Pakistan and these Jihadist elements(2). Several research studies published from 2000 to 2010 revealed that Pakistan's nuclear weapons faces a greater threat from Islamic extremists. As of now Pakistan is believed to have around 200 nuclear weapons and in the midst of qualitative and quantitative expansion of its nukes Nuclear Terrorism the A.Q. khan episode which confirmed Pakistan’s role in unauthorized nuclear deals with rogue states and secondly the multiple terrorist attacks on Pakistan’s defense establishments which exposed inadequate security arrangements in Pakistan. It is widely suspected that the terrorists must have got access to nuclear weapons or technology through the Khan network Pakistan are not adequately protected due to financial constrains. Hence there is greater chance of falling either nuclear weapons or fissile material in the wrong hands any theft of a nuclear weapon could lead to a nuclear 9/11 type attack on Mumbai or New York. Since 2001 the US has provided hundred million aids to Pakistan to safeguard its nuclear weapons. There were also reports in media that the US is planning to deploy special security force in Pakistan to safeguard its nuclear weapons.