ECMWF`s activities in atmospheric composition and climate monitoring

Report
ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition
and climate monitoring
Manfred Klöppel
(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)
(thanks to Vincent-Henri Peuch and Dick Dee, both ECMWF)
[email protected]
www.ecmwf.int
Slide 1
© ECMWF
ECMWF's activities in atmospheric composition
and climate monitoring
● ECMWF’s long-term strategy
● MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate
HE-01 Tools and Information for Health Decision-Making
● ERA-CLIM (reanalysis)
CL-01 Climate Information for Adaptation
Slide 2
© ECMWF
The ECMWF
Strategy
2011–2020
Slide 3
© ECMWF
Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate – Interim
Implementation
MACC-II is the third in a series of FP6 & 7 EU projects (since 2005). It is
coordinated by ECMWF and the consortium comprises 36 partners from 13
countries. It runs till July 2014, when GMES operations are expected to start.
Weather services
Long-range pollutant
transport
Air quality
Atmospheric
environmental
services
Dust outbreaks
provide data &
information on
UV radiation
Environmental agencies
Slide 4
Solar energy
© ECMWF
Climate forcing by gases
and aerosols
•••
Exciting satellite observations for atmospheric composition
are currently available
SO2 (GOME-2, SACS, BIRA/DLR/EUMETSAT)
Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS, NASA)
Slide 5
© ECMWF
CO2 (GOSAT, ACOS/JAXA/NIES)
NO2 (OMI, KNMI/NASA)
From combining observations and model forecast…
IASI
CO (LATMOS/ULB)
MOPITT
CO (NASA)
MACC-II global system relies on ECMWF variational 4d-var scheme, assimilating a range of
remote-sensing data to deliver analyses (illustrated here for Carbon Monoxide, a tracer of
combustion sources).
Slide 6
© ECMWF
… to global forecasting…
MACC-II provides daily 5-day global forecasts with a horizontal resolution of 80 km and a
time resolution of 3 hours, using a “chemistry-enabled” version of ECMWF’s forecast model.
Slide 7
© ECMWF
… to regional ensemble forecasts
O3
NO2
SO2
PM10
The global system drives the regional models providing European-scale
air quality forecasts.
Slide 8
© ECMWF
Regional Models
Global Model
Observations
http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu
Retrospective Service Provision
Reanalysis of Atmospheric
Composition (2003-2011)
Aerosol Optical Depth
30 years ozone
layer records
Methane
CO2 and CH4
surface flux
inversions
Slide 9
© ECMWF
700+ users
http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu
Near-Real-Time Service Provision
90+ users and obsAIRve
European Air
Quality
Global in the talk by
More on MACC-II achievements
Pollution
L. Wald in the late afternoon session today
Biomass burning
emissions
Aerosol
Slide 10
UV index
© ECMWF
Climate monitoring by reanalysis
Re-analysis of the recent past: Global datasets for monitoring climate change
ERA-15 ERA-40 ERA-Interim ERA-20C
ERA-40: 6-hourly gridded data
products from 1957-2002
ERA-Interim: From 1979 to
present, monthly updates
near real-time
ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project
• Preparing a new atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th Century
• Contributes to the GEO 2012-2015 work plan:
CL-01 C1 Extension and Improvement of the Climate Record
ERA-CLIM: A 3-year FP7 project coordinated by
ECMWF
To prepare input
observations, model data,
and data assimilation
systems for a new
atmospheric reanalysis of
the 20th century
ERA-CLIM will deliver:
•
•
•
•
Data rescue (both in-situ and satellite)
New reanalysis products
Improved data quality
Improved data access
Slide 12
© ECMWF
Reanalyses
provide a complete picture
of recent trends
example: temperature
Deg C/decade, 1979-2001
Summary
● Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a
complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent
climate
● Increased confidence in climate change science and models’
ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century
● Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate,
weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster
mitigation
Slide 14
© ECMWF
Slide 15
© ECMWF
Summary
● Reanalysis of in-situ observations and satellite data produces a
complete, comprehensive and coherent record of the recent
climate
● Increased confidence in climate change science and models’
ability to reproduce the climate of the twentieth century
● Sectors to benefit include: health, industry, water, climate,
weather, ecosystems, agriculture, biodiversity and disaster
mitigation
● The FP7 ERA-CLIM project: European contribution to GEO
Slide 16
© ECMWF
Slide 17
© ECMWF

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