Theories of Revolution Barrington Moore The Classical Historical Model 1. Population Explosion and Technological Revolution c. 1700 2. Increase Commercial and Modern Industrial Activity c. 1760 3. Urbanization c. 1775 4. Emergence of a Middle Class c. 1789: With Accompanying Ideas of: Liberalism, Nationalism and Democracy 5. Emergence of a Working Class (Proletariat) c. 1825: With Accompanying Ideas of Socialism Crane Brinton Anatomy of Revolution Causes of Revolution Condition 1 – Economy: Societies become prosperous economically before revolution. Condition 2 – Social Class: People of all social classes feel restless and held down by restrictions in society, religion, the economy or the government. People are hopeful about the future, but they are forced to accept less than they believe they are due. There is a growing bitterness between social classes and the classes closest to one another are the most hostile. Condition 3 – Intellectuals: Scholars and thinkers give up on the way their society operates and transfer their allegiance to a revolutionary group. Condition 4 - The government does not respond to the needs of its society. The government cannot organize its finances correctly and is either going bankrupt or trying to tax heavily and unjustly. Condition 5 – Ruling Class The leaders of the government and the ruling class begin to doubt themselves. Some join with the opposition groups. Crane Brinton Anatomy of Revolution Stages of Revolution 1. Moderates Come to Power 2. Radicalization of the Revolution – Radicals to Power 3. Crisis Period/Reign of Terror 4. Thermidor – Moderates back in power 5. Subversion of Revolution to Right Wing Authoritarian Figure (Meisel Addendum) Chalmers Johnson Revolutionary Change Categories of Revolutionary Theories 1. Actor-oriented Theories 2. Structural Theories 3. Conjunction Theories 4. Process Theories Chalmers Johnson Revolutionary Change Multiple Dysfunction + Intransigent Elite + X Factor = Revolution Mitigating Factor: Structural Conduciveness Chalmers Johnson Revolutionary Change Types of Revolutions 1. Jacquerie – spontaneous uprising of the Masses 2. Millenarian – Elite leading the masses (Unusual of inspirational leader) 3. Jacobin – Elite leading masses (ideological elite) 4. Anarchist – Elites leading masses without direction, ideology or replacement of the social system 5. Coup d’etat – One Elite minority replacing another 6. Militarized mass insurrection - Elites arming the masses but don’t provide direction Karl Marx The Communist Manifesto Hegelian Dialectic for the economic and social development 1.Primitive Communism 2.Slave Society 3.Feudal Society 4.Capitalism 5.Socialism 6.Communism (“The state will wither away”) Karl Marx The Communist Manifesto • All conflict arises from the class-based struggle to own the means of production. • The Bourgeosie would never give up their privileged place as owners of the means of production. Therefore, a revolution followed by a dictatorship of the proletariat will inevitably occur in the most industrialized societies. James DeFronzo Revolutionary Movements Sufficient Conditions for Revolution 1. Mass Frustration in Society 2. Dissident Elite 3. Unifying Motivation 4. Severe Political Crisis 5. Permissive or Tolerant World Context Ted Gurr Why Men Rebel RD – Relative Deprivation 1.Turmoil – Mass RD 2.Conspiracy – Mass RD + Elite RD 3.Revolutionary War Charles Tilly Europe in Revolutions: 1492-1992 1. Revolutionary Situations Environment/Structure – • Weak states are more likely to enter these situation • Two or more groups compete for control of the state • State is unwilling or unable to suppress alternative coalitions 2. Revolutionary Outcomes • Elites defect • Neutralization of the armed forces Theda Skocpol States and Social Revolutions • Social Revolutions have both national and international impact. • Structural forces create revolutionary situations. • Social revolutions (a change in both state institutions and social structures) are carried out by purposive action by class-based revolts from below. • Two variables are sufficient to create a Revolutionary Situation (Part I): 1. A Crisis of State which creates a challenge the state cannot meet leading to elites (and/or the army) becoming divided 2. Patterns of class dominance determine which group will rise up to exploit the revolutionary situation and lead it. Theda Skocpol States and Social Revolutions • Revolutionary Outcomes (Part II) are shaped by: 1. The “obstacles and opportunities “ from Part I 2. The socioeconomic and international constraints affect how the revolutionary regime will establish itself. • France – liberal capitalism • Russia – socialist dictatorship • China – mass mobilizing party-state Che Guevara & Gabriel Bonet Guerrilla Foco Theory Partisan Warfare (war against your enemy) + Psychological Warfare (War against your friends) = Equals Revolutionary Warfare Che believes the corruption of capitalism causes the conditions (ie Multiple Dysfunction) for revolution exist everywhere. Therefore in a guerrilla foco, a revolution can be created anywhere.