Dampak Krisis Eropa terhadap Indonesia

Report
10 Years of International Development Economics Associates (!DEAs)
Current Indonesian Economic Growth:
Is It An Indication of Decoupling
from World Downturn?
Hendri Saparini
ECONIT – Jakarta
[email protected]
[email protected]
24-26 January, 2012, Muttukadu, Chennai, India
Indonesian Economic Growth
• The economic growth of Indonesia has been relatively
stable. During the last 10 years (2001-2011) growing at
5.5 % in average. In 2009, Indonesia was one of the
Asian countries which has experienced positive
growth.
• In 2011 when the global economy faced a downturn,
Indonesia grew at 6.5% (higher than 2010 at 6.1%).
• While at the same period China and India has
experienced a slower growth, at 8.9% and 7.2% ,
respectively, compared with 10.3% and 10.01% in
2010.
GDP Growth of Selected Countries
20.0
15.0
China
India
Indonesia
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
World
Advanced economies
Euro area
China
India
Indonesia
2011
*)China and India (January 2012) are from Government Release
Source: IMF
Factors Supported Indonesia to Avoid the
Negative Impact of World Economic Downturn
1. GDP Structure
2. Export Structure
3. Capital and Financial Market Policy
4. Macroeconomic Stability Policy
Indonesian GDP Structure:
Relatively Resistance to Global Economic Dowturn
1. Indonesian GDP was dominated by private
consumption, 59 percent in 2009 and 57
percent in 2010.
2. Indonesian net export was relatively low
compared to other countries, 10 percent in
2009 and 2 percent in 2010.
GDP Structure:
Selected Countries (2009)
300
26
250
200
0
14
150
%
100
50
0
48
27
13
36
-22
-1
37
31
96
20
12
24
10
14
58
59
-25
0
-21
-2
50
200
68
11
40
13
55
-58
-75
-50
21
0
-176
-100
-150
-1
-200
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Private consumption expenditures
Government consumption expenditures
Exports Of Goods And Services
Imports Of Goods And Services
Gross domestic capital formation
Statistical discrepancy
Thailand
Source: ADB
GDP Structure:
Selected Countries (2010)
100%
80%
30
60%
48
40%
22
25
35
32
12
9
14
20%
57
71
97
57
34
211
21
13
48
0%
-26
-25
24
11
38
26
13
54
-23
-79
-20%
-183
-64
-40%
China
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Singapore
Statistical discrepancy
Imports of goods and services
Private consumption
Government consumption
Gross domestic capital formation
Exports of goods & services
Thailand
Source: ADB
Sector’s Contribution To GDP Growth
Sectors
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery
0.5
0.67
0.54
0.39
0.47
Mining and quarrying
0.2
0.06
0.37
0.29
0.14
Manufacturing industry
1.3
1.00
0.58
1.17
1.52
Electricity, gas and water supply
0.1
0.08
0.10
0.04
0.03
Construction
0.5
0.47
0.44
0.45
0.41
Trade, hotel, and restaurant
1.5
1.19
0.23
1.47
1.60
Transport and Communication
0.9
1.20
1.23
1.18
1.04
Finance, real estate and business
services
0.7
0.77
0.48
0.54
0.67
Sevices
0.6
0.58
0.59
0.57
0.64
Gross Domestic Product
6.3
6.01
4.58
6.10
6.52
Source: Central Bureau of Office
Manufacturing Sector:
Sub-Sectors Growth Rate (Q1-Q3 2011)
Sub Sector
Oil and gas manufacturing
Petroleum Refinery
Liquefied Natural Gas
Non Oil-gas manufacturing
Food, beverages and tobacco
Growth Contribution
-0.05%
0.04%
-0.10%
5.98%
1.96% (dominated by CPO)
Textile, leather products and footwear
0.75%
Wood and other wood products
Paper and printing products
0.03%
0.10%
Fertilizers, chemical and rubber products
0.51%
Cement and non metalic quarrying products
0.17%
Iron and steel basic metal
Transport equipment, machinery and
apparatus
Other manufacturing products
Manufacturing industry
0.20%
2.23% (dominated by motor bike)
0.03%
5.93%
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
Indonesian Export Structure:
Reducing Global Crises Effect
1. Primary commodities (energy and raw material)
dominated (50%) the export. Compared to Malaysia,
for instance, that has 77,8% of its exports in 2009
were of manufactured goods.
2. The effect of decreasing global demand for energy
and raw material as a result of global economic
slowdown would have a longer time-lag than
decreasing demand for final and intermediate
products. Hence, when economic slowndown
occured in 2009 and 2011, Indonesian export still
grew, yet decreasing.
….Continued
3. When world commodities prices has decreased
before global crisis (2008) and world downturn
(2011), this situation has been taken by many
industrial countries as an opportunity to keep
importing commodities for stock piling. Indonesian
export to major destination countries (ASEAN, China
and Japan) has increased in the periods.
4. While India and China experienced growth
deceleration in 2011 due to their major exports were
manufacturing products, both final and intermediate
products.
Indonesia Top 10 Export Commodities:
Raw Material
No
Products
Billions USD
Contribution
1
Coal; briquettes, ovoids & similar solid fuels
manufactured from coal
18.17
11.5%
2
Petroleum gases
13.67
8.7%
3
Palm oil & its fraction
13.47
8.5%
4
Crude petroleum oils
10.40
6.6%
5
Natural rubber,balata,gutta-percha etc
7.33
4.6%
6
Copper ores and concentrates
6.88
4.4%
7
Coconut (copra),palm kernel/babassu oil & their
fractions
2.29
1.5%
8
Refined copper and copper alloys, unwrought
2.26
1.4%
9
Petroleum oils, not crude
2.19
1.4%
10
Uncoated paper for writing, printing etc.
2.07
1.3%
Total 10 products
78.74
50%
All products
157.78
100.0%
Source: ITC
Malaysia Top 10 Export Commodities:
Manufactured Product & Raw Material
No
Products
Billions USD
Contribution
1
Electronic integrated circuits and microassemblies
22.81
11%
2
Petroleum gases
13.37
7%
3
Palm oil & its fraction
12.41
6%
4
Automatic data processing machines;optical reader, etc
11.02
6%
5
Parts&acces of computers & office machines
10.79
5%
6
Crude petroleum oils
9.65
5%
7
Petroleum oils, not crude
7.94
4%
8
Diodes/transistors&sim semiconductor devices; etc
7.20
4%
9
Television receivers (incl video monitors & video
projectors)
5.28
3%
10
Natural rubber,balata,gutta-percha etc
2.86
1%
Total 10 products
103.33
52%
All products
198.79
100%
Source: ITC
China Top 10 Export Commodities:
Manufactured Product
No
Products
Billions USD Contribution
1
Automatic data processing machines;optical reader, etc
139.06
9%
2
Electric app for line telephony,incl curr line system
105.98
7%
3
Cruise ship, cargo ship, barges
35.19
2%
4
Diodes/transistors&sim semiconductor devices; etc
32.00
2%
5
Television receivers (incl video monitors & video projectors)
31.89
2%
6
Parts&acces of computers & office machines
31.31
2%
7
Electronic integrated circuits and microassemblies
29.61
2%
8
Liquid crystal devices; lasers; other optical appl & instruments nes
27.85
2%
9
Printing machinery; machines for uses ancillary to printing
23.58
1%
10
Electric transformer,static converter (for example rectifiers)
20.19
1%
Total 10 products
476.67
30%
All products
1577.76
100%
Source: ITC
India Top 10 Export Commodities:
Manufactured Product
No
Products
Billions USD
Contribution
1
Petroleum oils, not crude
36.64
17%
2
Diamonds, not mounted or set
22.27
10%
3
Articles of jewellery&parts thereof
7.83
4%
4
Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites
6.15
3%
5
Medicament mixtures (not 3002, 3005, 3006), put in dosage
5.15
2%
6
Refined copper and copper alloys, unwrought
4.63
2%
7
Cars (incl. station wagon)
4.51
2%
8
Commodities not elsewhere specified
4.23
2%
9
Cotton, not carded or combed
2.97
1%
10
Cotton yarn (not sewing thread) 85% or more cotton, not retail
2.76
1%
Total 10 products
97.14
44%
All products
220.41
100%
Source: ITC
Primary Commodities:
World Price Fluctuation
300
250
200
Metal index
Industrial Materials index
150
Energy index
Food index
100
Agricultural Raw Material Index
50
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
0
Source: IMF
Indonesian Exports:
By Country of Destinations (2007-2011)
Australia dan
Oceania
Lainnya
Asia dan Timur 3%
9%
Tengah lainnya
4%
ASEAN
20%
India
6%
Korea Selatan
7%
Jepang
18%
RRC
10%
Amerika
11%
Eropa
12%
Source: Central Bureau of Office
Indonesia – China Export Imports
30.0
25.0
23.9
20.7
Billions US$
20.0
15.3
15.6
15.0
13.8
10.0
10.0
6.8
6.7
8.7
11.9
20.5
Export
Import
11.6
9.9
7.8
5.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Central Bureau of Office
Indonesian Case, Maintaining High Cost
Support Has Reducing Global Crises Impact
1. Since global crises began, many emerging markets
have cut their interest rate and yield of government
bonds, as well as controlled capital flow.
2. Indonesia has been maintaining high interest rate
(Central Bank ), even when inflation was
manageable.
3. Steps to control capital flows were minimum, i.e.:
increasing SBI (Central Bank Certificate) tenor.
Indonesia also has released financial services from
value added tax obligation.
ASIAN Local Currency Bond Returns Indices
700
Index, Dec 2000=100
600
Indonesia
500
Philippines
Korea
400
Thailand
Hongkong
300
Malaysia
Singapore
200
China
100
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: ADB
Local Government Bond Yield (10 Year)
Vietnam
12.41
Indonesia
6.12
Philippines
5.16
Korea
3.79
Malaysia
3.59
China
3.42
Thailand
3.21
USA
1.86
Singapore
1.57
Hongkong
1.43
Japan
0.95
0.00
2.00
* per January 16, 2012
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Source: ADB
Selected Cases of Controlling Measures on
Capital Inflows
Instrument
Recent Examples
• Brazil: IOF tax raised from 4% to 6%
Tax Measures
•Korea: re-imposition of 14% withholding and 20% capital gains
taxes on foreign purchases of government bonds
Minimum Investment Periods
Indonesia: 1-month minimum holding period for CB money
market certificates
•Thailand: 15% tax on interest income and capital gains earned
by foreign investors
•China: limits on HK bank's net open positions and ability to
access Yuan through China's FX market
Quantitative Limits
•Indonesia: short-term external bank borrowing limited to 30%
of capital
•Korea: Implemented cap on size of banks' FX derivatives books
•Brazil: 60% reserve requirements on banks’ short dollar position
in the spot market
Unremunerated Reserve Requirements
•Turkey: reserve requirements raised and expanded to repo
transactions
Source: IIF (2011) from Financial Development Report 2010
Central Bank of Indonesia’s Policy:
Tightening Monetary Management
No
1
2
3
4
Policy
Widening Interest Rate of Over Night Inter-Bank Money
Market
Amendement of conditions for Net Exchange Balance (Posisi
Devisa Netto/PDN).
Applying one month holding period of Central Bank
Certificate (Sertifikat Bank Indonesia /SBI).
Additional monetary instrument of on-securities term
deposit
5
Issuance of 9 and 12 month SBI
6
Application of 3 parties repurchase mechanism (repurchase)
of government bonds
7
Removal of 1, 6 and 9 month (Central Bank Certificate/SBI)
Effective Date
June 17, 2010
July 1 , 2010
July 7, 2010
July 7, 2010
SBI 9 mo: August
2010,
SBI 12 : Sept 2010
2011
1 months (Jul. 2010),
3 Months (Nov.2010),
6 Months (Feb 2011)
Source: Central Bank
Prioritizing Macroeconomic Stability:
Improving Indonesian Resistance against Crisis
1. Government policy choice on macroeconomic stability:
maintaining high interest rate and government bond yield.
Even when inflation decreasing, central bank’s interest rate
was kapt high.
2. This policy has affected real sector as loan interest rate of
banks were still high. Private sector has to offer higher yield
to compete with government bond or seeking for foreign
financing.
High Interest Rate of BI:
Managing Inflation
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
Inflasi (yoy)
BI Rate
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Jan-08
Jul
Jan-09
Jul
Jan-10
Jul
Jan-11
Jul
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
Lending Interest Rate:
Indonesia’s Higher than Other Countries
20
18
16
14
%
Indonesia
12
Philiphina
10
China
Malaysia
8
Singapore
6
Thailand
4
2
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
*percent per annum, period averages
Source: ADB
Domestic credit by banking sector:
Indonesia’s Smallest (% of GDP), 2010
160
146.4
135.5
140
132.2
120
100
%
85.7
80
71.1
60
49.2
36.5
40
20
0
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Source: World Bank
Corporate Financial Source:
Abandoned Banking Loan
Others
14%
Foreign Loan
18%
Public Offering
6%
Banking Loan
16%
Internal Fund
46%
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
Corporate Financial Source:
Increasing of Foreign Loan
100
Billions of USD
80
60
40
20
-
Source : Central Bank of Indonesia,2012
….Continued
3. Managing macroeconomic stability has also been done by
liberalizing financial sectors and encouraging huge shortterm capital inflow.
4. As a result of the policy, Indonesian stock market index has
risen at higher rate than that of other countries, exchange
rate strengthening, foreign ownership in financial market
increased sharply, as well as foreign exchange reserve.
5. Short-term capital inflow would continue, beside as a result
of high interest rate policy and high cost debt, due to
investment grade improvement of Indonesia since end of
December 2011 (Fitch Rating and Moody’s)
Balance of Payment
15,000
Transaksi
Berjalan
Current Account
Capital and
Finnacial
Account
Transaksi
Modal
& Finansial
10,000
Juta US$
5,000
-
-5,000
-10,000
Q1-07
Q4-07
Q3-08
Q2-09
Q1-10
Q4-10
Q3-11
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
Asian Stock Market Index:
Indonesia Grew Higher
250
200
IHSG, Indonesia
150
Hanseng, Hongkong
KLSE, Malaysia
Nikkei, Japan
100
STI. Singapore
Kospi, Korea
50
0
Jan-07
Jun-07
Nov-07
Apr-08
Sep-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Portfolio Investment:
The Level of Foreign Ownership
(in Trillion Rupiah)
Year
Central Bank
Certificate
%
Government
Obligation
%
Stock
%
Total
Dec-08
8.4
10
87.4
17
452.2
60
548
Dec-09
44.18
5
108
19
783.1
61
935
Dec-10
54.93
27
195.76
31
1,184
63
1435
Dec-11
21.34
15
220.79
31
1,211
60
1447
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia, MOF
Foreign Exchange Reserve
140
2011:
US$ 110 billions
6.3 months of
import
120
Miliar US$
100
80
60
40
1998:
US$ 24 billions
6.3 months of
import
20
0
Jan-07
Jul.
Jan-08
Jul.
Jan-09
Jul.
Jan-10
Jul
Jan-11
Jul
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
Foreign Exchange Reserve of Selected
Countries – as per Nov. 2011
China
3180
Japan
1305
Billions of USD
Brazil
352
India
308
Singapore
241
Malaysia
135
Indonesia
111
Philippines
76
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Source: IMF
Asian Exchange Rate:
Aprecation of Indonesian Rupiah
150
130
Index, Jan 2007=100
110
Rupiah
Ringgit Malaysia
90
Bath Thailand
Dollar Singapore
Yen Japan
70
Yuan China
50
30
Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11
Source: IMF
Indonesian Sovereign Rating:
Return to the Same Position after 13 years
Source: Central Bank of Indonesia
FDI Realization by Sector
18,000
16,000
14,000
Millions USD
12,000
10,000
Other Primary Sectors
Motor Vehicles & Other Transport
Other Industry
Metal, Machinery & Electronic Industry
Food Crops & Plantation
Trade & Repair
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry
Food Industry
Real Estate, Ind. Estate & Business Activities
Electricity, Gas & Water Supply
Other Services
Mining
Transport, Storage & Communication
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Investment Board
….Continued
6. FDI flow has also increased. The hugest FDI was in
transportation and communication; this sector has
been experiencing incredible growth. In 2011 internet
users: 45 million people (19%). It was predicted that
would reach 153 million people in 2014 or 61,2% of
population (Business Monitor International’s
Research). Also as one of the most ‘connected ‘
countries to the world: 35 million of “facebook” users;
4,8 million of Twitter users (the world rank on 4th).
7. Other FDI goes to sectors which are related to
natural resources, like mining, gas and plantation.
Growth, Competitiveness and Welfare:
Indonesia Needs More than Growth Decoupling
1. Some indicators may show Indonesian decoupling growth
with global economy. But, what actually occured may that
Indonesia faces a long time-lag relatively to other countries
against negative impact of global crises.
2. Other important issue is that the policy in maintaining
economic growth has resulted a fragile economic structure,
and also counterproductive for economic competitiveness
(competitiveness index and doing-business level).
3. In addition to that, although growth decoupling has
occured, people’s quality of live in Indonesia has not been
improved much (stagnant on Human Development Index,
wider income inequality, etc.) .
Global Competitiveness Index 2011-2012:
From 44th to 46th as a Result of Policy and Strategy Choices
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Indicator
Rank 2011
Rank 2010
Change
Basic Requirements Category
53
60
7
Institution
Infrastructure
Macroeconomy
Health adn Basic Education
71
76
23
64
61
82
35
62
-10
6
12
-2
Efficiency Support Category
56
51
-5
High education
Market efficiency of goods
Labour market efficiency
69
67
94
66
49
84
-3
-18
-10
69
94
15
41
62
91
15
37
-7
-3
0
-4
45
36
37
36
-8
0
8 Financial market
9 Technology readiness
10 Market Magnitude
Innovation and Business
Sophistication Category
11 Business Sophistication
12 Innovation
Factors of Competitiveness Downgrade:
Determinant Aspects of Investment Competitiveness
No
Level of
Change
Indicators
4
Down 1-5
level (22
indicators)
Among others:
Investors Protection Power (-3), Employment
Rigidness (-4), etc
5
Down more
than 5 level
(53
indicators)
Amon others:
Quality of Port Infrastructure (-7), Stock
Exchange Trade Regulation (-7), Trade Tariff (15), Foreign Investor Ownership (-20), Bank
Health (-20), Agreement to Delegate Authority (24), Impact of Foreign Inveatment Business
Rules (-29)
Doing Business Level in Asia (2011)
Economy
Dealing
Ease of
with
Doing Starting a
Getting Registering Getting Protecting
Constructi
Business Business
Electricity Property
Credit Investors
on
Rank
Permits
Paying
Taxes
Trading
Across
Borders
Enforcing Resolving
Contracts Insolvency
Singapore
1
1
2
3
1
3
1
2
1
2
1
Hong Kong SAR,
China
2
2
1
2
10
2
2
1
2
1
3
Thailand
3
8
4
4
5
5
4
18
3
4
6
Malaysia
4
6
19
13
11
1
3
9
5
6
5
Taiwan, China
5
3
16
1
6
5
12
13
4
14
2
China
13
20
24
17
7
5
15
20
9
3
9
Vietnam
14
13
10
19
8
4
21
24
11
5
16
Indonesia
19
21
12
23
15
16
7
22
7
22
18
Philippines
20
23
17
11
19
16
18
23
8
17
20
Cambodia
21
24
23
18
17
14
12
10
20
18
19
Source: World Bank
Higher Inflation are Facing by the Lower Income:
Cummulative Inflation 2005-2010
BahanRaw
Makanan
Food
85%
Makanan
jadi,Beverages,
Minuman,
Rokok dan…
Processed
food,
Cigarette,
etc
50%
Sandang
Clothing
47%
Umum
General
42%
Education,
Recreation
and Sport
Pendidikan,
Rekreasi
dan Olah
Raga
39%
Housing,
Water, Electricity,
Gas andBakar
Fuel
Perumahan,
Air, Listrik,
Gas dan Bahan
32%
Health
Kesehatan
Transport.,
Communication,
Services
Transpor,
Komunikasi,and
danFinancial
Jasa Keuangan
28%
9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Source: BPS, processed
Economic Growth and Poverty:
Ineffective in Eradicating Poverty
Upper Middle
(US$ 10-20)
Middle (US$ 4-10)
9.7%
1.0%
Rich (>US$ 20)
0.2%
Upper
Rich (>US$ 20) Poor (< US$ 2 )
Middle (US$ 10-20) 4%
7%
Lower
19%
Middle (US$ 2-4)
23%
Lower
Middle (US$ 2-4)
29.9%
Poor (< US$ 2 )
59.2%
Middle (US$
4-10)
47%
INDONESIA (2009)
10,7% of population included in middle and
upper middle classes
CHINA (2007)
66% of population included in middle and
upper middle classes
Source: ADB
Middle Class in Indonesian vs. China:
Nurturing New Middle Class in Villages
Rich (>US$ 20)
Cities
Villages
.
Cities
Rich (>US$ 20)
Villages
Upper Middle
(US$ 10-20)
Upper middle
(US$ 10-20)
Middle (US$ 410)
Middle (US$ 410)
Lower Middle
(US$ 2-4)
Lower Middle
(US$ 2-4)
Poor (< US$ 2 )
Poor (< US$ 2 )
0
20
40
60
80
100
Million people
INDONESIA (2009)
middle and upper middle classes people only
in cities
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Million people
CHINA (2007)
middle and upper middle classes are more in
villages
Source: ADB
Current Indonesia Economic Growth:
Decoupled from World Downturn, but also from
Economic Competitiveness and People Welfare
1.
Compared to global economic, growth decoupling occured in Indonesia.
Indonesian economy still grew amids global economic down turn.
2.
Some factor has supported Indonesia to be relatively resistance from
global economic down turn :
a) GDP structure: dominated by private consumption
b) Export structure: dominated by primary comodities
c) Maintaining high cost support (maintaining high interest rate and
minimum of control capital inflows)
3.
Several indicators may have shown that Indonesia experienced
decoupling. But, actually Indonesia experienced a relative long time lag
of negative impact of global crisis. Such positive performance did not
result the improvement of competitiveness as well as the people
quality of live.

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