Michigan and 2014: A State of Play An assessment of Michigan’s top statewide races The MDP: think the Lions, if they hadn’t fired Jim Schwartz Several statewide positions lack declared (SoS, Sup Ct) or widely supported (AG) candidates Statewide Democratic candidates (Schauer, Peters, et al.) lag behind Republican opponents Lon Johnson, MDP Chair Michigan Governor Governor Rick Snyder (R) v. Mark Schauer (D) Governor Snyder builds his lead… Governor Snyder: < 50%, but consistently leads Democrat Mark Schauer Recent polling has Snyder up … and Schauer lags behind. Falling behind in polling, and in resources Tough to gain on opponent; no specific plans have hampered him US Senate Terri Lynn Land (R) v. Rep. Gary Peters (D) S Two Evenly Matched Teams… Both have strong electoral records Land: Secretary of State victories in 2002 and ’06 Peters: a close loss to formerAG Cox in 2002, Congressional wins in 2010 and ‘12 …with Land Exceeding Expectations In the last two quarters of 2013, Land raised $3.6 million According to recent FEC filings and polling, Land has a small, but meaningful lead Independent ad buys bolster both candidates. US Chamber and MI Chamber Endorse War on Women comes to this race. Really. Michigan Supreme Court Justices Brian Zahra, David Viviano, and an open seat S Snyder’s Appointments Up For Re-election While rare for an incumbent justice to lose, there is precedent In 2008 and 2010, incumbent justices Alton Davis and Cliff Tayor were, respectively, defeated No announced candidates, but worth keeping an eye on the vacant seat up for grabs Justice Brian Zahra Justice David Viviano US Congress Races to watch: Rep. Dan Benishek (R, MI-1), Justin Amash (R, MI-3), Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI-7), Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R, MI-11) Open Seats: 4-R- Konetchy v. Mitchell v. Moolenaar (Camp) 8-R- Bishop v. McMillin (Rogers open); D-Darga v. Gretternberg v. Hank v. Scherzing 14: D- Burgess v. Clarke v. Hobbs v. Lawrence A Tight Race in Michigan’s st 1 Benishek’s 2012 race one of the tightest in the nation In 2014, Benishek’s opponent is county sheriff Jerry Cannon Cannon proving to be a strong fundraiser, but gaffe-prone Jerry Cannon (l) and Rep. Dan Benishek (r) Primaries to Watch Michigan’s 11th Seat currently held by incumber Kerry Bentivolio Challenger: Oakland County businessman Dave Trott. Endorsed by MI Chamber. In the last quarter of 2013, Trott outraised Bentivolio 10 to 1. Trott is on tv. Bentivolio hearing today in Plymouth Michigan’s 3rd Libertarian Republican Rep. Justin Amash faces primary challenger Brian Ellis Amash endorsed by Club for Growth, Freedomworks Ellis ad hitting Amash on RTL issues/legislative record Primaries to Watch Michigan’s 8th Michigan’s 4th Republican +3-4 Republican +5-6 Conservative Mike Bishop v. Peter Konetchy v. Paul Mitchell Libertarian/Tea party Tom McMillin Congressman Rogers endorsed Bishop; Congressman Amash endorsed McMillin v. John Moolenaar Paul Mitchell went up with 2nd ad; organization John Moolenaar: Popular legislator; endorsements from elected officials/grassroots activists Generals to Watch Michigan’s 7th Republican +3-4 Conservative Republican Tim Walberg. Gadfly primary Daniel Radcliffe North. Democrat Pam Byrnes Competitive fundraising in 1st quarter Michigan’s 14th Democrat Battle Royale: former Congressman Hansen Clarke; State Rep Rudy Hobbs; Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence; and Burgess Foster A Conyers makes the ballot. Republican Christina Conyers Attorney General and Secretary of State AG Bill Schuette (R) v. Totten/Dillard (D); SoS Ruth Johnson (R) v. Nobody (D) Schuette and Johnson: Free Ride to the End Zone? SoS Ruth Johnson (R) has no announced opponent, with Byrum silent and Brown running as Schauer’s LG candidate AG Schuette faces Mark Totten or Goddfrey Dillard, who both lack wide support among Democrats SoS Ruth Johnson (l), AG Bill Schuette (r) Michigan Legislature Likely GOP holds in Senate and House Michigan Legislature Highlights House Senate 59-51 GOP majority 26-12 GOP majority GOP Pickup to Watch:Canton area: Fausone v. Pagan/Mathas/Mosher; 4 key races all held by GOP Open Monroe Zorn seat: Jason Sheppard v Mima Kubiske. V. Dem Tom Redmond 7th: Colbeck (R) v. Slavens (D) Rising star: Livonia seats; Wayne Cty Commissioner Cox (R) likely Livonia candidate v. Crider Holly Hughes (R) could flip Rep. Lamonte (D) seat, as could Tom Barrett (R) with Rep. Abed (D) Competitive GOP-held seats in Troy and downriver Wayne with Howylrak and Sommerville, respectively 17th: Zorn (R) v. Spade (D) (Open) 20th: O’Brien, Wenke, Zuiderveen (R) v. Sean McCann (D) 32nd: Ken Horn (R) v, Stacey Erwin Oakes, Lewis, Federspiel (D) Ballot Initiatives Minimum Wage hike, Personal Property Tax exemption Part-time legislature; Wolf Hunting Ballot Initiatives to Watch Raise MI: Minimum Wage hike Effort to put the hike on the ballot still developing— Restaurant Opportunity Center $206,000 raised; $147,000 in- kind; $32,000 on hand Competing legislative proposal. Part-Time Legislaature Low on funds. $48,000 for cycle; $10,000 on hand Not sure signatures will happen Key contributors: Dave Agema; Ballot Initiatives to Watch PPT Reform Citizens for Strong Safe Communities: $5.2 Million Raised Serious Money: Ford $2 million; Dow $1.5 million; MMA $1.2 Million $125,000 spent on start-up costs Ballot Initiatives to Watch Wolf Hunting Effort to put the hike on the ballot still developing. Signatures collected 2012 US Fish and Wildlife Deregulated Wolf from endangered species MI Dept. Natural Resources allowed to regulate wolf hunting season. 700 Wolves. Nov/Dec 2013—43 wolf hunted S Competing proposals. Pro-signatures for citizens initative will be turned in and opposing will be knocked off. Ballot Initiatives to Watch Wolf Hunting—Keep Michigan Wolves Protected $1.4 Million Raised; $1,000,000 spent; $427, 594 on hand Most spending collecting signatures Humane Society Backing Citizens for Professional Wildlife Management Ballot initiative to reinforce MI NRC allowing hunts $464, 398 raised $430,000 spent; $36,529 on hand Conservation groups supporting Questions?