GOTV UNIVERSES - New Organizing Institute

Report
GOTV UNIVERSES
Pilar Weiss
New Organizing Institute
INTRODUCTIONS
NOI On Demand
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Norms
FOLLOWING THE LAW
ELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM
FOLLOWING THE LAW
WWW.AFJ.ORG
TODAY’S PRESENTER
Pilar Weiss
Civic Engagement Director
New Organizing Institute
OBJECTIVE
Today’s presentation will cover
building Get Out the Vote (GOTV)
universes, building capacity, and
planning backwards to build up to
scale.
AGENDA
Introduction
Basic Terms
Building Universes
Capacity, Capacity, Capacity…
Instituting a Timeline
Making Adjustments
Q&A
SOME BASIC TERMS
• GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities
organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an
election to maximize the number of supporters that turn
out to vote.
• Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn
out to vote on election day.
• Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter
file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will
behave.
BUILDING UNIVERSES
SETTING YOUR VOTE GOAL
• Different vote goals for different kinds of
campaigns
– Candidates – 50% + 1
– Ballot Initiatives – different states/localities,
different laws
– Campaigns
• Specific geography
• Increasing turnout in a specific community or
demographic
SETTING A NON-CANDIDATE VOTE GOAL
• Building power in your community comes
in lots of different forms! Define your win:
– Increasing turnout of a specific demographic
– Taking responsibility for a specific region,
neighborhood, set of precincts
• Increasing civic engagement in a
community doesn’t have to be 50% + 1 but
it should still be based on metrics!
• What is the vote deficit you’re going to fill?
BUILDING YOUR UNIVERSE
MODELING
PARTISANSHIP
DEMOGRAPHICS
ID/SUPPORT
VOTE HISTORY
TARGETING MATRIX
SUPPORT
AGAINST
FREQUENT Opponents who
VOTE HISTORY
always vote
UNKNOWN
SUPPORTER
Persuadables
who always vote
Supporters who
always vote
SPORADIC
Opponents who
sometimes vote
Persuadables
who sometimes
vote
Supporters who
sometimes vote
NEVER
Opponents who
never vote
Persuadables
who never vote
Supporters who
never vote
Newly
registered
opponents
Newly registered
persuadables
Newly registered
supporters
NEW
HOW DO WE GET TO OUR VOTE GOAL?
• Identify our vote deficit
• Identify how we’re going to contact voters
• When do we transition from an
ID/persuasion phase to GOTV phase?
• How many GOTV passes will we make to
get to our vote goal?
CONTACT RATES
• Having a baseline for contact rates
– Phones – 10-20%
– Canvass – 25-35%
• Test contact rates – they’ll differ by
geography, time of day, list quality.
CONTACT CALCULUS
9,000
Contact
Goal
15%
50,000
Contact
Rate
Attempts
Goal
BUILDING CAPACITY
CAPACITY BUILDING BLOCKS
• Organizational Capacity
– Staff
– Volunteers
– Growth Potential
• Key Metrics
– Canvass Method - Phones or Canvassing
– Contact Rate Assumptions
– Shift Length & Estimated Production
VOLUNTEER CALCULUS
50,000
80
625
Attempts
Goal
Calls per Shift
Shifts Goal
BUILDING A TIMELINE
• Phases
– Transition from persuasion to GOTV
– Establishing # of GOTV passes
– Calculating a timeline for each phase based
on contact rate & capacity
• Recognizing the role of Early Vote and
Vote-By-Mail.
• Calculating ramp up & escalation in each
phase, including key benchmarks.
TIMELINE
Final
ID/Target
Universe
Additional
GOTV
Passes
Initial
GOTV
Pass
Election
Day
Early
Vote/
VBM
MAKING ADJUSTMENTS
It happens on every campaign so embrace
the adjustment phase!
• Recognizing fluctuations in contact rate
• Assess reality of shift length and shift
production
• Volunteer and staff capacity growth and
schedule
QUESTIONS?
WWW.NEWORGANIZING.COM/TOOLB
OX

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