mega corridors

Report
Throwing Light On the Future:
Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the
World
By
Beatrice Shepherd
1
November 2011
Agenda for Mega Trends Presentation
• Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends
• Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future
1.
Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors and Smart Cities
2.
“Smart” is the New Green
3.
Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Age Group 15-34 Years, The Middle Bulge
4.
Technology: Top 50 Technologies, Space Jam, World War 3, Personal Robots, Virtual World and Haptic
Technology, Future Smart Mobility
5.
Innovating to Zero !
6.
E-Mobility
7.
Infrastructure Development: Trans Siberian Rail, High Speed Rail in United States, Infrastructure Development
in Africa
8.
New Business Models: Value for Many
9.
Economy: Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers, Economic Engines for Growth in Africa
10.
From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
• Key Strategic Conclusions
• How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies
• Question & Answer Session
2
Definition of a Mega Trend
What is a Mega Trend?
Impact of Mega Trends on Key
Organisational Functions
Marketing
and
Strategy
Mega Trends are global, sustained
and macro economic forces of
development that impact business,
economy, society, cultures and
personal lives thereby defining our
future world and its increasing pace
of change
R&D
Budget
Spending
Innovation
Scouting
Technology
Planning
Product
Planning
and
Development
3
Top Mega Trends of the Future
Urbanisation
Three Main Trends in Urbanisation: Development of Mega Cities,
Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum
Population Of 8 Million
and GDP of $250
Million in 2025 (13
Mega Cities in 2011
and 25 Mega Cities in
2025)
EXAMPLE: Greater
London
MEGA REGIONS
MEGA CORRIDORS
Cities Combining With
Suburbs To Form Regions.
(Population over 15 Million)
The Corridors Connecting
Two Major Cities or Mega
Regions
EXAMPLE: Johannesburg
and Pretoria (forming
“Jo-Toria”)
EXAMPLE: Hong KongShenzhen-Guangzhou in
China (Population 120
Million)
6
Mega Corridors in 2050
Global Snapshot of Future Mega Corridors Connecting Two Or More Mega Cities or Mega Regions
Evolution of Megacities: Mega Corridors (World), 2050
Trans European Transport
Network (TEN-T) serving
entire Europe
Great Lakes
Corridor
Cascadia
Northern and
Southern
California
Corridor
Arizona Sun
Corridor
Front
Range
Corridor
North East
Corridor
(BOSWASH)
Piedmont
Atlantic
The
Texas
Triangle
Florida
Corridor
Dubai – Abu
Dabi Corridor
Hong KongShenzhenGuangzhou
Corridor: Home
to 120 Million
People
Tokyo- Osaka
Corridor: Home to
90 Million People
Ibadan-Lagos-Accra
Urban Corridor: 600
Kilometers
São Paulo to Rio
de Janeiro
Corridor: Home to
50+ Million
People
Golden Quadrilateral in
India connecting
Mumbai-Delhi-KolkataChennai: 5,846 km
Source: Frost & Sullivan
7
Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of
Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America.
China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable” Cities
Amsterdam
London
Boulder
Tianjin
GIFT
San Francisco
Göteborg
Vancouver
Seattle
Portland
Treasure Island
Coyote Springs
Arcosanti
Montreal
Toronto
Oslo
Reykjavik
Clonburris
St Davids
Paredes
Destiny
Stockholm
Hammarby Sjöstad
Copenhagen
Songdo
Freiburg
Dongtan
Paris
Changsha
Barcelona
Khajuraho
Babcock Ranch
Meixi Lake
Singapore City
Kochi
Bogota
Waitakere, N.Z.
Curitiba
Cape Town
Masdar
Moreland, Australia
Legend
Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Existing eco megacities
8
Why is this Important? Because Cities - Not Countries - Will Drive
Wealth Creation in the Future
Fast Forward City Facts: Did You Know?.....
•
Over 60% of Worlds Population to Live in Cities by 2020
•
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary)
and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.
What are the Micro Implications ?
•
High Economic Power With 85% of Scientific and Technology
Innovation from These Cities
•
Hub and Spoke Business Model will evolve with Logistics, Healthcare,
Retail and many other industries
•
New Mobility Solutions like Bike and car sharing,
•
Transit oriented development and zoning
•
The extension of transit lines to the suburbs will move businesses out
of the central downtown to the suburbs
•
Social Polarization: High Gap Between Rich and Poor
•
A highly diverse and dynamic socio-economic-cultural mix
•
Techno savvy and connected citizens with high speed broadband, 4G
technologies and free Wi-Fi to enable connectivity 24X7.
9
With 10.8 M Population and GDP of $425 B in 2025,
Seoul Will Be a Key Business Hub in Asia
5 Pronged Vision of Seoul’s Metropolitan
Government for 2025
Why Seoul?
•
Seoul to account for 50% of South Korea’s
GDP in 2025
•
Seoul to receive around $4 billion in FDI
annually by 2025
•
Seoul to have highest Broadband
Penetration Rate in the World in 2025 at
60% (currently highest at 34.4% - 2010
with second lowest price of $0.08)
•
Mobile Ownership to increase to 150% in
2025 (currently 101% -2010)
•
Seoul has a robust retail sector with
25,000 shops open 24X7 (2010)
•
In future, Seoul is expected to be
connected by land with Mainland China,
Siberia and Europe.
•
Industrial clusters have already formed in
Gangnam , the downtown area ,
Yeoungdeungpo.
Source:Seoul.gov.kr
10
Seoul: The Hub Vision to House Facilities and Infrastructure for 6
Growth Engines in 2025: Digital Media, ICT, Biotech, Fashion, Finance and Tourism
$28 billion Yongsan International Business District development project
will open new paradigms of urban development and intl. business in 2016
Digital Media City(DMC) Scheduled to Be Completed in 2015 is slated to be
the World’s First Media Complex . Project cost is around $3 billion
11
“Smart” is the New “Green”
12
“Smart” is the New Green
Smart
Technology
Smart
Infrastructure
Smart
Energy
Smart
Mobility
Smart
Buildings
Smart Grids
Smart Clouds
Smart
Materials
Smart
Bandages
Smart
Phones
Smart Meters
Smart Cities
13
Factory of the Future: SMART and GREEN: “Flexibility in Capacity” And
“Robotic Technology” Combined with Artificial Intelligence
Material Handling conveyer
Mixing Plant
Processing Plant
Drying Chamber
Separation Plant
Waste Water
Processing Plant
SMART Factory 2020
Future Plant
Current Plant
Heating Plant
Batching & Blending
Plant
Factory of the future will Lower Production Costs and shorten Innovation and
Production Cycles
Material Handling conveyer
Work Simulation
10% decrease in production time; 30%
savings in project cost; 20% reduction in
manual labour; Reduced CO2 emissions
Mixing & Processing Plant
LV and MV drives coupled
with energy efficient
products
Drying Chamber
Separation Plant
Cleaning Plant
Chilling Plant
Waste Water
Processing Plant
Heating Plant
Quality Plant
Packaging Shop
Premium
efficiency class
motors, pumps
and compressors;
all requiring low
voltage drives
Batching & Blending
Plant
Chilling Plant
Remote Support and Diagnosis
of Production Equipment, Virtual
Reality based maintenance and
Planning
Cleaning Plant
FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES
• Current Sensing
• Reduced Complexity
• Cloud Computing
• Software as a Service
• Digital Factory
• Software configurable hardware
• Mobile Applications
• Sustainability
• OELD Displays
• Virtualization
Quality Plant
Packaging Shop
14
“Smart” Market Opportunity: Convergence of Technology Will Lead to
Convergence of Competition
Energy/Infrastructure
Players
Point of
Convergence
• IP Networks
• Digital Technology
• Analysis Software
• Wireless Communication
• Technology Integration
• Network Security
• Etc.
IT Players
• T&D Technology
• Power Electronics
• Renewable Energy
• Integrated Distribution Management
• Substation Automation
• AMI-Enabled Metering
• Etc.
• Building Automation
• Demand-Side Management
• Connectivity of devices
• Monitoring and Sensing
• Smart Grid Integration
• Etc.
Automation/Building
Control Players
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
15
Social Trends
Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialisation in 2020
Used For:
Used For:
Meet Ups, Restaurant and
Nightclub Reviews,
Concert Events
Digital Marketing:
Receiving Updates on
Promotion and Offers
Used For:
Used For:
Networking in Business
Conferences: Updates on
Potential Contacts
Local Real Estate News,
Geo Socialising with
Friends
17
Global Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Population Between 1534 years (Gen Y today) - Around 61% from Asia Alone
2010
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020
2
Around 37% of Gen Y
Population Will Live in India
and China Alone
1.8
1.6
6.83 Billion
2020
7.55 Billion
1.2
0.47
Population in Billion
1.4
0.16
0.09
1.2
2.1
0.19
0.07
0.57
0.47
1
0.33
0.8
0.22
0.63
2.56
0.12
0.6
0.37
0.23
0.44
0.51
0.21
0.4
0.2
0.07
0.44
0.36
0.26
0.13
0.22
1.69
0.33
0.11
0.22
0.14
0.07
0.13
Latin America,
Caribbean and
Oceania
North America
Europe
0
Africa
Rest of Asia
65 Years and Above
35-64
15-34
India
China
0-14
Population in Billion
Note: Gen Y: Population between 15 – 34
Years
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
18
Age Group 15-34 Years: Goods and Services Catered to Values,
Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle
Personalization
and
Individualization
Personalized Search and
News
Techno Savvy
and Connected
24 X 7
Civic and
Environmentally
Friendly
Demanding and
Impatient – “Fast
and the Furious”
Gaming Gizmos
Eco- Transport
Instant Text Messaging
Smart Phones
Social Networking Profiles
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags
Instead of Plastic)
Instant Chat
Facebook-on-the Move
Personalized Products
Paperless Banking
Speed Oriented
Gaming (Car Racing)
Microblogs
19
The Middle Bulge: Middle Class Will Account for 52% of
Global Population in 2020. Over 65% of the Middle Class Population are
from Africa, China and India in 2020
Global Income Pyramid, 2010 and 2020
Percent of Global
Middle Class Across
Developing Regions in
2020
Africa
$30,000
India
ME
Rest of
Asia
$6,000
LA
CEE
2010
2020
China
Note: The Middle Class in the graph are defined as people with Incomes between
$6,000 and $30,000 found in developing regions. However, this definition differs
marginally from country.
20
Technology
TechVision 2020 – Top 50 Technology Web
22
SPACE JAM: New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be
Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative
Applications
By 2020, there will be
approximately 927 Satellites
(Communication – 405; Earth
Observation – 151; Navigation
– 85; Reconnaissance – 212
and R&D 75)
23
World War 3: With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare
to be the Next Domain of Conflict
Space
Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile
Defence, Signals, Astronauts
Air
ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime
Surveillance, Communications, Airmen
Naval
Land
Combat Platforms,
Communications, ISR,
Transport, Sailors
Combat Vehicles, Transport,
Communications, Soldiers
Information Environment
Physical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions
24
Future Personal Robots: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That
Will “Act as a Butler” in Everyday Life
Robots as Pets
Robots for
Household
Chores
Robots to Wait
on Hand and
Foot
Robots for
Companionship
Robots as
Waiters
Robots To Help
With Strategic
Planning and
Business
Robots as
Nannies
25
Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and
Experience Impacting Personal Mobility
Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try
Products without leaving their homes
Virtual Classes and Laboratories
and Daily 3D Field Trips
to Different Countries and Planets
Virtual Surgeries
and Medical Training
Virtual Business Conferences
Social Networking: 3D Avatars
Enabling People to Lead
Multiple Lives
26
Fluid Interfaces: Haptic Technology Enabling Seamless, Gestural,
Intuitive and Ambient Interaction Between Physical and Virtual Realms
“Holodecks”: F-16
Flight Simulator
Haptic Entertainment
Experiences
Wearable Computing:
Gestural Interfaces Are
Being Developed that
Allows Humans to
Interact and Augment
Physical World with
Digital Data
Applications of Wearable
Computing: Using Hand as
a Keypad or Dial Pad
Intuitive Haptic Gaming Experiences
Surface Computers:
Browsing of Internet
on Any Surface
Through Gestures
Source: MIT Media Group, 2010
27
The Future of SMART Mobility is for ‘Green’, ‘Integrated’ and
‘Interoperable’ Transport Infrastructure
Connectivity: opportunity for built,
bought & beamed in, providing a
hybrid open architecture service and
network comms
RTI: Ticketing,
scheduling, CCTV
and incident
management,
UTMC integration
Smart
Ticketing/AFC:
Innovative payment,
integration with RTI
EVs IT:
grid/energy
management,
billing systems,
comms & cloud
LMS: Signalling,
infotainment,
diagnostics, energy
management &GPS
V2V: ANPR, DSRC,
vehicle positioning
Car Sharing: technology to
locate, reserve and unlock
nearest car on mobile,
provide info via apps/GPS
Commercial Vehicle
Telematics: Vehicle/driver
Source: ETSI and on board
management,
tracking, computer, navigation
Source: ETSI
Congestion
Charging: technology
migration from ANPR –
Tag& Beacon – GPS,
and advanced payment
and info on mobile
28
Innovating to Zero
“Innovating To ZERO”: Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero
Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020
Zero Waste/
Emissions
Carbon
Neutral Cities
Zero
Defects
Complete
Recyclability from
Households
(Cradle to Cradle
Concept)
Carbon
Neutral
Factories and
Retail Stores
Zero
Breaches of
Security
Zero
Emissions
from Cars
Zero
Accidents
Zero Obese
Patients
Zero
Crime
Rates
30
ACTION AREAS
TARGET
Case Study: Copenhagen to be World’s First Carbon Neutral City by
2025
THE GOAL
THE VISION (2025)
20% Reduction in CO2 (2005-2015)
(reduction of 500,000 tonnes)
No Net CO2 emissions by 2025
First Carbon Neutral City
375,000
tonnes
50,000 tonnes
50,000 tonnes
20,000 tonnes
5,000 tonnes
Integrating Climate
into Energy Supply
Greener Transport
Energy Efficient
Buildings
Copenhageners
and Climate
Urban
Development
7 Energy Initiatives
15 Transport Initiatives
10 Building Initiatives
These include:
These include:
These include:
•
•
•
9 Copenhageners
Initiatives
4 Urban
Development
Initiatives
These include:
•
•
•
<0000-00>
Use of Biomass
In Power Stations
Building Wind
Turbines
Upgrading
District Heating
Network
Increasing
Dependence on
Geo Thermal
Energy
•
•
•
Developing
bicycling and
walking options
Increasing Public
transport
Incentives for
Electric and
Hydrogen Powered
Cars
Car Sharing, Car
Pooling
•
Upgrade of
Buildings to
Improve
Ventilation,
Temperature
Controls, Lighting
and Noise Levels
Improve Energy
Conservation in
Buildings
These include:
•
•
•
Reduction of
Electricity
Consumption
Minimise
Waste
Reduction
Waste
Recycling
•
•
Integrating
Green
Concepts into
Urban
Energy Smart
Choices in
Transport,
Buildings
31
E-Mobility
E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be
Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
Total 30 million –
Total 10 Million –
2 Wheelers (2020)
Sanyo Enacle
XM 3000 Electric Moped
4 Wheelers (2020)
The GEM Peapod
The Smith Newton
33
Electric Vehicle Market Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields
Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel
Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs
and Government
Integrators
Utilities
OEMs
Key
Responsibility:
Key
Responsibility:
Development of
Charging
Infrastructure
Promotion of EV
use
Supplies
infrastructure to
distribute their
energy
Charging
Station
Manufacturers
Development of
performing
batteries
Infrastructure
supplier
Government
System/Battery
Manufacturers
Could work to improve charging time and safety
34
Possible Revenue Streams
worth evaluating
Services
Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered By An
Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
Charging
Stations
Batteries
• Manufacturing &
Sales
• Battery Leasing
Model
• Installation &
Maintenance
• Refurbishing
• Charge Payment
Program / Subscription
based services
• Revenues from
Diagnostic, Music
Downloads and
Garage Referrals via
charging stations
• Premium revenues
via Renewable Energy
Vs Non Renewable
Energy
• Premium revenues
via Peak Power Vs Off
Peak Charging
• Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs
Level 3 Charging
• Recycling
• Battery 2nd life
applications – sales
and maintenance
• Battery Swapping
• Battery based
business models
extended to 2Wheelers and other
E-mobility solutions
• Battery Integration
– from cell to stack
combined with
complete thermal
engineering and
safety reqt.
E-Mobility Vehicles
Electricity
Telematics & other
value added
services
• Selling E-Mobility
solutions based on
energy Subscription
Packages
• Subscription based
Energy service
Scheme
• Data Aggregator (
working with other
partners)
• Extended E-mobility
solution e.g. vehicle
sharing
• Offering After-Sales
services – linking with
OEMs and setting up
suitable repair or
diagnostic clinics
• Market green
solutions such as
Solar panels, wind
turbines and CNHG to
E-Mobility client base
• Recycling and
Refurbishing of EMobility vehicles and
related mechanical
and electronic
components
• Increase efficiency of
Underutilized Off-Peak
Power – providing
more stability to the
grid
• Substantiate and
move forward with
investment in
renewable energy such
as wind farms and gain
carbon credits
• Premium revenues
via Peak Power Vs Off
Peak Charging
• Battery management
services
• Advanced booking of
charging stations
• Vehicle to Vehicle
and Vehicle to Grid
Communication
• Added value service
(POIs, Diagnostics,
etc)
• Premium revenues
via Renewable Energy
Vs Non Renewable
Energy
• Smart Metering
Source: Frost & Sullivan
35
Infrastructure Development
Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will
Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad
Development of Trans-Siberian railroad
will have significant socio economic
and business impact to Russia
Yekaterinburg
Sredneuralsk
St. Petersburg
(Warsaw, Berlin)
Severka
● Helsinki
●
●
Kaliningrad
Minsk
Moscow
●
Kiev
Nizhny
Novgorod
Yekaterinburg
● Astrakhan
Novosibirsk
Krasnoyarsk
(Bucharest,
Khabarovsk
Irkutsk
Aleksandrupolis)
ITC North South
Trans-Siberian Railway
Pan European N 9
Pan European N 2
Baikal-Amur Mainline
Vladivostok
High Speed Rail Market Overview Globally : Spain, China and USA are Top 3
Investors in New Rail Infrastructure with Combined $263 B in the Next 10 Years
High-Speed Rail Market: Country-wise cumulative investments on rail infrastructure (Global), 2011 to 2020
$824 Billion
Turkey
54.73
Sweden
Spain
18.75
Switzerland
45
1.23 South Korea
Russia
16.25
Portugal
25.15
Poland
Italy
17.80
9.88
24.65
Germany
Japan
India
25
France
128.33
70.65
Morocco
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Europe
2011
Only
USA
29.33
7.42
GCC
China
EU
Asia Pacific
55.00
87
SA
137
NA
166
APAC
Argentina
37.65
Brazil
49.13
137.35
338
EU
7.50
11.10
33.48
Middle East & Africa
South America
North America
2011 to 2020
*Note: Figures are cumulative
EU
APAC
M35F-18
ME
97.53
$70 Billion
APAC
107
Note: All figures are rounded, the base year is 2010 Source: Frost & Sullivan
Europe, $338 Billion
SA
South America, $87
Billion
NA
North America, $137
Billion
ME
Middle East &
Africa, $107 Billion
Asia Pacific, $166
Billion
38
High Speed Rail to Come to US
Overview of 13 High-Speed Rail Corridors Across 31 States
Evolution of Megacities: High Speed Rain in U.S. (2009-2025)
California to connect Bay
Area with LA through an
ambitious $42bn program
with construction starting
in 2 years
Impact to Personal Mobility
and Auto Industry
1. Transit oriented
development
2. Air travel will diminish rapidly
between the high speed rail
link cities
3. Train operators could start
offering integrated transport
e.g. Car sharing
4. Will take congestion off
highways, people will drive
less long distance
5. Attractive cities for car
sharing
6. Small city car sales will grow
in these cities
39
Infrastructure Spending in Africa to Total $1.1 Trillion from 2005 to 2030:
Power To Account for 45% of the Investment
Total Infrastructure Spending (Africa), 2005 -2030
Road /
Retail
Power
Required
investment
$0.5 Trillion
% of Total
spend
45%
Water
Required
Investment
$0.2 Trillion
% of Total
spend
18%
Total
Infrastruc
ture
Spend
Total
investment
required
$ 1.1
Trillion
Required
investment
$0.3 Trillion
% of Total
spend
27%
Air
/Seaports
Required
Investment
$0.1 Trillion
% of Total
spend
9%
 More than 60% of this expenditure is
funded by African sources including
private companies and taxpayers
Source: Frost & Sullivan
The expenditure needed for infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa amounts to 15% of the
region’s GDP.
40
Africa Will Not Be the Blackout Continent: From 70% of Sub-Saharan
Population Without Electricity In 2010 To 70% With Electricity in 2020
With equal population levels, Africa & India
show a very different face at night
Business opportunity: Bring light into communities -350
million people in Africa alone
Sources:Earth at Night, NASA.gov
41
New Business Models
42
New Business Models of the Future
Value for Many: Eg. Aravind
Eye Care Hospital
Collaborative Buying and
Crowd Sourcing:
Eg. Groupon
Personalization and
Individualization
Eg. My M&M’s
Sharing Model:
Eg. Car Sharing
New Business Models of the Future: “Value for Many”
Aravind Eye Hospital:
Conducts 286,000 AssemblyLine type Cataract
Operations per year
“Value for Many”
Will Replace
“Value for Money”
Tata Nano: The People’s
Car At Low Price (Rs 1 Lakh
or €1,600)
Grameen Bank: Microfinance
Bank for the 8.34 Million
Borrowers in Bangladesh
(97% Women)
EChoupal Initiative by ITC:
Leveraging Internet to
Empower 4 Million Farmers
Ford Business Model
44
Innovation in Hospital Business Models
General Hospital
Focused Specialized Hospital
Value Proposition:
Value Proposition:
Don’t know what’s wrong?
Need care for a specific condition?
– We can address any problem you bring
– Specialists, experience, world-class facilities
• Trends towards specialized care delivery around specific therapeutic areas
(targeted service lines, etc.)
• Emergence of "medical cities", in the Middle East, India, APAC
• Specialized facilities tied to development of medical tourism in some countries
45
Economy
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers in 2020
Russia:
$4,243
Billion
Poland: $836
Billion
Turkey: $1,577
Billion
China:
$15,264
Billion
Egypt: $448 Billion
Brazil: $4,004
Billion
Mexico:
$1,887
Billion
Vietnam: $254
Billion
India:
$4,216
Billion
The
Philippines:
$386 Billion
Argentina:
$964 Billion
South Africa:
$620 Billion
Indonesia:
$1,751
Billion
BRIC Countries
Note: The figure denotes GDP at market
prices
Next Game Changers includes: Mexico, Argentina, Poland, Egypt, South Africa, Turkey, Indonesia,
Philippines, Vietnam
47
Africa’s Largest Economies and Engines of Growth in 2020
Morocco
GDP $175
billion ($91.7
billion in
2010)
Algeria
GDP: $310 billion
($158.9 billion in
2010)
Egypt
GDP: $448.9
billion
($218.84billion
in 2010)
Sudan
GDP: $162.3 in
billion ($65.9
billion in 2010)
Nigeria
GDP: $510.5
billion ($206.6
billion in 2010)
Ghana
GDP: $47.5
billion ($18.0
billion in 2010)
Kenya
GDP: $81.0 billion
(32.4 billion in
2010)
Angola
GDP: $201
billion (86
billion in
2010)
Note: The figure denotes GDP at market
prices in 2020
The figure in brackets denotes GDP at
market prices in 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan and International
Monetary Fund Database, 2010
South Africa
GDP: $620 billion ($357.2 billion
in 2010)
48
From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans
Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being
Mind
Sight / vision
Touch & feel
Smell / breathing
Sound
Temperature
Wellness
Body
Mood
Stress levels
Mental health
Sense of optimism
Attitude
Security
Safety
Soul
Personal values
Personal fulfilment
Self image / self
actualisation
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Health and Wellness
Shift in Healthcare Trends: From Treatment to Prevention
Prevention trends result in greater demand for areas such as weight management and functional foods and beverages
Healthcare Spending Per Capita (2007, 2050)
If current trends hold - by 2050, healthcare
spending will double, claiming 20-30% of
GDP for some economies
In most countries worldwide, per capita
healthcare spending is rising faster than per
capita income which is unsustainable
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
Due to rising costs of healthcare, future
spending will move away from
treatment
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Health & Wellness
Towards Better Health and Disease Prevention (Functional Foods)
US Digestive Health Ingredients Market US Heart Health Ingredients Market
1310
2500
Revenues in $ Mn
1400
Revenues in $ Mn
1050
700
350
244
2171
2000
1500
1000
563
500
0
0
2008
2015
2008
CAGR 2007-2015: 25.6%
2015
CAGR 2008-2015: 21.3%
Global Weight Management Ingredients
13900
15000
Revenues in $ Mn
The need for prevention and better general
health has driven the demand for
functional F&B products and consequently
the market for specific functional
ingredients
12000
9000
7500
6000
3000
0
2008
2015
CAGR 2008-2015: 9.2%
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Over the next 10 years, weight management, heart health, and
digestive health will continue to be the high growth sectors
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Key Strategic Conclusions
Key Strategic Conclusions
1.
Mega Trends are connected and intertwined which suggests “synergetic”
opportunities between them
2.
It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend and the elements of
the value chain which have most profitability
3.
All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable
opportunities
4.
These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half
the life-cycle speed of the past decade
5.
Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation
structure to best exploit the opportunities
6.
It is important to build a healthy eco-system around your opportunity related to a
mega trend as it can be a source of competitive advantage and raise barriers to
entry (e.g. App store advantage vs Google)
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From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to
Strategy Implementation
Macro
Micro
Analysis of
Opportunities
and Unmet
Needs
Mega Trend
Selected Trends That
Impact Your Business
And Markets
Example: Urbanisation,
Satellites
Impact on
Future Product/
Technology
Sub Trend
A Sub Layer of Trends that
Has Wide Ranging Impact
Example: Three concepts of
urbanisation will emerge:
megacities, mega regions and
mega corridors. Smart Cities.
Civilian satellites means high
speed broadband, wireless and 4G
and free wi-fi in public places/cities
Impact to Your
Industry
Visualising The Roadmap Of
These Critical Forces Through
Scenario Building and Macro
Economic Forecasts
Example: Mega City
electric cars with small
turning radius,
autonomous parking in
busy cities, Facebook on
wheels, seamless
switching from home to
car
Example: New Product
Opportunity - New Mega City
Cars, Car sharing,
New Technology Opportunities –
Connected car , e.g. Internet
Radio
Example: People in future will need
“personal mobility” not necessarily cars to
commute to work. This will lead to need for
integrated mobility combining all forms of
transport including cars
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