Economic performance of Sri Lanka

Report
Economic Performance of
Sri Lanka
Trends of Economic Growth Rate of
Sri Lanka
1
Gross domestic Product(GDP)
• Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is the
monetary value of the value added
generated in the production of goods
and services inside the country diring
a year.
2
Economic Growth rate
• Economic growth rate can be defined
as a percentage increase of real
Gross Domestic Product(GDP).
3
National Accounting of Sri Lanka
4
National Accounting of Sri Lanka
• Cover all economic activities
• Data are collected from about 250 institutions (as
a sample) so as to represent all above economic
activities
• Use 1993 SNA guidelines in the estimation
process
• Data are analyzed by using a computer system
5
National Accounting of Sri Lanka
• Five statisticians and fifteen statistical officers are
engaged in the compilation process of national
accounts estimates
• Sri Lanka is one of countries which collects
quarterly data and compile quarterly national
accounts estimates
• Quarterly national accounts estimates are derived
by using the indicator method in other countries
6
National Accounting of Sri Lanka
• Advance Data Release Calendar is published in
the department web site.
• GDP estimates are released during the 75 days
time lag of each quarter
• Estimation procedure is consisted by several
rounds and press notes prepared in these stages
should not be considered as final one until
Director General of DCS release the final press
note to the web
7
National Accounting of Sri Lanka
• Estimation procedure
– Data collection starts in the first week of next quarter
– Estimation procedure is supervised by the statisticians
and estimates can be revised
– Separate Internal discussions for different economic
activities
– Two discussions of statisticians
– Two discussions with director of National Accounts
Division
– A discussion with Additional Director General
– Final discussion with Director General
8
National Accounting of Sri Lanka
• Director General is the authorized person to
release all indicators produced by the
department
• The previous draft documents prepared in
different stages should not be considered as
final report
9
Responsibility of National Accounting for
Sri Lanka
•
•
•
DCS started national accounting in 1948
and continued
Both institutions, DCS and Central Bank of
Sri Lanka compiled national accounts
estimates up to 2007.
Sole responsibility of national accounting
was given to the DCS from 2007.
10
Economic activities of Sri Lankan economy
International Standard of Industrial
Classification(ISIC) is used
Agriculture Forestry and Fishing
Industry
Services
11
Main economic activities of Sri Lankan economy
Agriculture, forestry and Fishing
• agriculture
• Livestock
• Forestry and Fishing
Industry
•
•
•
•
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas and Water
Construction
Services
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Wholesale and retail trade
Hotels and restaurant
ප්transport and communication
Banking Insurance and Real estate
Ownership of Dwellings
Government services
Private services
12
Quarterly economic growth rates
Year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Annual
2005
5.2
6.4
6.9
6.4
6.2
2006
2007
7.8
6.1
7.7
6.4
7.7
7.0
7.4
7.6
7.7
6.8
2008
6.2
7.0
6.3
4.3
6.0
2009
2010
2011
2012@
1.6
7.1
8.0
8.0
2.1
8.5
8.1
6.4
4.2
8.0
8.5
4.8
6.1
8.6
8.3
6.3
3.5
8.0
8.2
6.4
2013@
6.0
6.8
7.8
@ provisional
13
Quarterly economic growth rates
• In the year 2009 economic growth rate has
gone down to 3.5 percent level mainly due
to world economic slowdown
• After the end of the war economic growth
rate exceeds 8.0 percent (2010 and 2011)
• It fluctuates around 7 percent in recent
quarters
14
Agriculture
15
Trends of Paddy production
Million Busals
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
මහ
96.5
යල
59.1
වාර්ෂික 155.6
2006
102.3
57.8
160.2
2007
94.6
55.5
150.1
මහ
2008
101.9
83.9
185.7
2009
114.3
60.8
175.0
යල
Source- Department of Census and Statistics
2010
126.0
80.1
206.1
2011
95.7
91.0
186.6
2012
130.2
54.1
184.3
2013
136.4
84.7
221.1
වාර්ෂික
16
Paddy production in Northern and Eastern
provinces
Million Busals
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
2005
නිෂ්පාදනය 47.8
2006
49.0
2007
38.1
2008
46.5
Source- Department of Census and Statistics
2009
47.1
2010
56.4
2011
41.3
2012
63.4
17
Trends of Paddy production
• Paddy production has increased from 2005
– Harvested area has increased from 1.4 Acre Mn to
1.8 Acre Mn
– Average yield has increased from 77 Busals to 90
busals
• Government intervention
– Increase paddy prices
– Fertilizer subsidy
– Expansion of irrigation schemes
18
Trends of Tea production
මමට්‍රක් ම ොන් දහස්
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
2013
@
නිෂ්පාදනය 317.2 310.8 305.2 318.7 291.1 331.4 327.5 325.0 334.8
2005
2006
source- ශ්‍රSrilanka Tea Board
@ estimated figure.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
වර්ෂය
19
Trends of Tea production
•A positive trend of tea production from
2005
•Although demand for tea has decreased
due to world economic slowdown in the
year 2009, it recoverd from 2010
20
Maize production
මම.ම ො. දහස්
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
2005
නිෂ්පාදනය 41.8
2006
47.5
2007
56.4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
112.3 129.8 161.7 137.8 202.3 192.1
Source- Department of Census and Statistics
21
Production of Chicken
140000
135000
130000
මේ.ම ොන්
125000
120000
115000
110000
105000
100000
95000
90000
2008
Poultry 102,520.0
2009
99,450.0
2010
104,200.0
2011
116,800.0
2012
134,490.0
Source- Department of Census and Statistics
Livestock and animal production Department
22
Production of Eggs
මිලියන
1,500
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
Eggs
2008
916.2
2009
1,142.2
2010
1,089.9
Source- Department of Census and Statistics
2011
1,161.9
2012
1,397.3
වර්ෂය
23
ලී ර් මිලියන
Production of milk
310
290
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
Milk
2008
202.0
2009
217.4
2010
240.1
Source- Department of Census and Statistics
2011
253.3
2012
284.1
වර්ෂය
24
Production of Milk
• Milk production in Northern and
Eastern provinces increased after the
end of the war.
25
Industry
26
Export Value
1,000
900
800
Rs. Billion
700
Industrial Exports
600
Textile & Garments
500
Rubber Products
400
Jem & Jewellery
300
200
Petrolium Products
100
Other
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
•Source :-Sri Lanka Customs
• “Industrial Export Earnings” to Total Export Earnings is more than 75%.
• “Textile and Garments” to Total Export Earnings is more than 50%.
2012
Year
Generated of Electricity
G.W.H
14000.0
12000.0
10000.0
THERMEL
HYDRO
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ELECTRICITY - POWER GENERATION
Annual
Power Generation
Quantity (G.W.H.)
Share %
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
8,739
9,386
9,822
9,900
9,882
10,706
11,506
11,799
100.00
100.00
Hydro
3,455
4,635
3,962
4,136
3,907
5,712
4,741
3,453
29.27
29.27
Thermal
5,284
4,751
5,860
5,764
5,975
4,994
6,765
8,346
70.73
70.73
Total
•
Share to
Total %
Source:-Ceylon Electricity Board
Water Production (M3000,000)
600
M3,000,000
500
400
300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Water Production (M3'000,000)
2005
Quantity M
•
3
- 000000
383
2006
398
Source:- Water Supply & Drainage Board
2007
426
2008
440
2009
449
2010
470
2011
490
2012
526
වසර
Sales Quantity of LPG.
250
MT -000’
200
150
100
50
0
2006
2007
Sales Quantity of LPG (MT-000')
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sales Quantity of LPG
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
170 180 158 170 187
Source:- Litro Gas Company Ltd
Laugfs Gas PLC
2012
2011 2012
205 211
Construction,
Manufacturing and
Fixed Capital formation
31
Imports of Cement
M.Ton 000”
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
වර්ෂය 2002
2003
2004
Source: Sri Lanka Customs
2005
2006 2007 2008 2009
සමස්ථ සිමමන්ති සැපයුම
2010
2011
2012
32
Annual Cement availability
වර්ෂය
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ආනයන (මෙට්‍රික් ම ොන්)
Q1
Q2
Q3
226,902 273,566 253,875
237,491 201,289 254,442
204,839 155,994 219,757
348,802 241,190 439,398
455,674 429,002 466,972
607,334 478,647 457,926
525,240 431,688 489,590
432,752 370,809 483,110
486,155 455,913 525,604
577,501 466,380 943,103
1,293,620 670,815 882,858
Q4
456,430
699,579
227,026
430,345
497,825
572,804
553,674
415,395
543,968
597,208
949,443
මේශීය නිෂ්පාදනය (මෙට්‍රික් ම ොන්)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
244,947 211,024 278,878 238,759
288,553 258,841 335,421 280,886
337,091 313,160 355,704 324,402
348,471 342,401 397,591 367,711
375,795 355,629 435,486 375,173
422,396 372,116 415,341 424,299
434,771 356,722 426,192 317,618
377,089 348,925 420,694 364,091
417,556 432,887 484,476 402,446
493,444 461,557 543,305 485,850
508,731 478,795 580,255 498,409
සෙස්ථ සිමෙන්ති සැපයුෙ (මෙට්‍රික් ම ොන්)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
471,849
484,590
532,753
695,189
526,044
460,130
589,863
980,465
541,930
469,154
575,461
551,428
697,273
583,591
836,989
798,056
831,469
784,631
902,458
872,998
1,029,730
850,763
873,267
997,103
960,011
788,410
915,782
871,292
809,841
719,734
903,804
779,486
903,711
888,800 1,010,080
946,414
1,070,945
927,937 1,486,408 1,083,058
1,802,351 1,149,610 1,463,113 1,447,852
33
Directs and indirect effects of increase
in cement supply to the economy
•
•
•
•
To increase output of construction sector
To expand other cement related industries
To develop infrastructure
To increase capital formation or gross
investment
34
Services
35
Government sector
36
Government Expenditure
Rs. Million
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Recurrent Expenditure
Capital Expenditure
Total Expenditure
2006
522,418
414,315
936,734
2007
614,762
578,904
1,193,667
Recurrent Expenditure
2008
736,473
676,378
1,412,850
2009
876,562
823,763
1,700,325
Capital Expenditure
2010
952,243
797,721
1,749,964
2011
1,020,034
914,380
1,934,414
2012
1,117,205
1,005,477
2,122,682
Total Expenditure
Source: Government Budget, Department of estate accounts
37
Government Expenditure
• Both current and capital expenditure increased
continuously
• GDP increases directly when government expenditure
increases according to Keynesian identity
• (Y = C + I + G + X – M), G
• Purchasing power of Household increses due to
increase of GDP
• Investment and capital stock increase due to increase
of capital expenditure
• Increased capital stock lead to increase future
production
Y=GDP, C=Private Consumption, I=Investment, G=Government Expenditure, X-M=net exports
38
Hotels & restaurant
and Tourism industry
39
Tourist arrivals
Tourists
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2005
125250
128838
151497
143723
2006
159536
137667
146770
115630
Q2
2007
134635
90156
125988
143229
2008
135516
88847
93183
120929
Q3
2009
106702
81027
121413
138748
Source: Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority
2010
160409
118243
166576
209248
Q4
2011
215124
166414
216468
257969
2012
260525
192342
240905
311833
2013
337719
245854
320624
370396
40
Effects of increase of tourist arrivals
• Increase of output of hotels and restaurant
sector
• Expansion of services activities such as transport
and telecommunication
• Even though tourist arrivals increased, Income of
star hotels remains same or can be decreased.
This is mainly due to tendency to use
unregistered accommodation and other services.
41
Transport
42
Number of registered Cars and Three wheelers
Number of
registered vehicles
(cumulative)
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
කාර්
Source- Department of motor traffic
ත්‍රීමරෝද රථ
43
implications of increase of registered vehicles
• Increase of transport services
• Expansion of service sector
• Increase house hold luxury consumption
44
Export and Import
45
Exports
Exports
1,400,000
1,200,000
Rs. Mn
1,000,000
800,000
Agricultural
Industrial
600,000
Total
400,000
200,000
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source- Sri Lanka Customs
• Increased export income since 2006, shows us that the production of related
goods has also increased during the last few years
• Export income of the year 2009 has gone down as a result of world
economic slowdown
46
Imports
Imports
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
Rs.Mn.
Total
Consumer Goods
1,500,000
Intermediate Goods
1,000,000
Investment Goods
500,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source- Sri Lanka Customs
• Import of intermediate goods and investment goods has increased than
consumer goods from 2006
• As intermediate and investment goods are used in the production of goods
and services it was a favorable factor to the economic growth of the country
47
VAT income from wholesale and Retail
trade activities
Rs.
Mn
ම ො ස සි
ර මව දාමෙන් ැ
VAT
ආදායෙ
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source- Department of Inland revenue
• VAT income from wholesale and Retail trade has
increased repidly and it shows the expansion of trade
activities and consumption
48
Turnover of Wholesale and Retail trade
sector
Rs.Mn
Turnover
5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Turnover
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source- Department of Census and Statistics
49
VAT income from wholesale and Retail trade activities
රු.මි
160,000
.
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
වැටුප් හා මේතන
2009
2010
ලාභ
2011
2012
වර්ෂ
• Profit and salaries & wages of financial institutions has increased continuously
from 2005 by showing increased demand for monetary intermediation
50

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